AFL Round 20 (August 15th - 17th)

[Ashtee]

My first thought was Carlton are a decent chance but when I look closer they really haven't done anything to suggest they're up to genuine top-8 grade. North have them covered IMO. Got my doubts West Coast will bring anywhere near the same intensity under gloomy Melbourne skies. Some doubts on Hansen and Wirrpanda and given they finish with Hawthorn and Geelong the selection panel may concede they're happy enough with not much to replace them with.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 20 (August 15th - 17th) I just can't get my head around what a nasty, nasty week this is ahead... I know I'm going to look stupid talking down the 'Roos chances, but the numbers say they have just been going along... They've relied (in their last 4) on a defensive midifeld...holding teams to just 43 I50's, but they still av. under 50 per game themselves, and their backline stil tends to leak when it gets there (worse only than Richmond and the Doggies)... Carlton have 2nd highest I50's in last 4 @ 57.5 and are scoring at a healthy 1.73, again, second only to Geelong! It's fair to say the Port game has blown their I50 av's sky high, but the scoring has been constantly good. But, yeah, against solid defensive middles, the Blues have struggled...42-53 v. Adelaide, 49-52 v. Sydney, 41-66 v. Geelong, 49-55 @ Adelaide... Kangas, but really, 1.75 is about right? :\ West Coast absolutely have been terrible on the road all season, but got within 22 of a relatively strong Essendon team 3 trips ago. (were never going to beat Hawthorn or Brisbane)... ...Melbourne lost to Ess. by 16 (6 less shots to WC 7), Bombers had no Lucas, no McVeigh and Melbourne had Davey playing who I think is pretty important to them. I really think WC are a shout...impossible to put $ on them, but again, odds are probably right. Numbers for Melborne's last 4 and WC away are unbelievably identical! Eagles on the road have copped Crown flying, Sydney flying, Bulldogs flying, caught Collingwood on their 2 game flying streak! :lol, pushed Kangas, close to Ess, @ Brisbane and Hawthorn...not easy... :\ Port a chance? Or do we assume the drop off l ast week is for the duration? Again, last 4 numbers are staggeringly close...even with Port's last 2 horrors at the Dome... Home form has been ok, but how far do we want to go back?? More I50's v. Freo but beaten, a win v. Crows, who have since showed they're still every bit as good (better) than than Collingwood... ...and got within 2 kicks of Nth, Rich and Carlton... So which is it? Happy to be home, or given up on the season completely? 18 looks a lot of points to me...but really have no idea what will happen! :$ Crows back to their defensive best last 4, but 3 @ AAMI and 1 v. the toothless Swans. Bombers really dropped off last 2, and depsite the scoreline really di dominate Essendon last meeting at home. I guess their road form has been ok...just the loss @ WC was the bad one (got injuries in-game v. Coll)... ...BUT, tight game @ the Dome last year with Bombers getting up as slight dogs when Crows were in better form last year. Lucas played, but Burton and Welsh kicked 7 between them. Lucas stays out Crows will win...if not?... Brisbane have to be a show too, but books clearly know it!...Won just 1 of their last 6, but amazingly just that 1 has been at home! They're a different team at home, av. 55-47 I50's, compared to 47-53 on the road! Dogs with massive problems down back (as much as anything!), given up an av. of 32.5 shots in the last 4!! I think more worrying for the Doggies has been their total dry up of sscoring! After dropping below 29 shots just one time in their first 12 games (@ Sydney), they have topped 28 just once in their last 7! That's a drop off of over 6 shots per game. BUT, Dogs have won last 3 up @ Brisbane (all as favs tho)...and really, not convinced Brisbane have played all that much talent at home this year... ...Collingwood (meh), beaten by Sydney and Hawthorn, Melbourne, St. Kilda can't travel, Kangas can't travel, Freo (lucky to escape, just 2 more shots), Crows (decent win) and West Coast. I have no clues about any of these games!! :cry Geelong beat Swans...there we go. 1 winner... 2...Hawthorn win, but I was thinking -20 wuld be a bit closer to the mark. 3? Freo?...Been pretty impressive last 4, but only played 3 bottom teams and a struggling Sydney... Saints were happily beating Hawthorn by 5 goals a month ago, and have since lost to West Coast and Collingwood! Lost 4 of 5 away from home, the only win v. an equally poor travelling 'Roos, with -2 I50's and same shots. Freo won last 2 meetings at home comfortably... ...still, you all know my thoughts on taking Freo in the red! :spank How many times have I mentioned this is a god awful week of AFL?! :wall

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 20 (August 15th - 17th) I think Simpson returning is gunna impact at stoppages at least, Taz. They were smashed by Bris with him not around, although did set up at half back prepared to concede the clearances. Interestingly they did get a formula happening and (visually) got right on top in that area LW. It's a shame North (with their frig'n sub 100%) won't bomb the arc more (by game plan) then I'm sure Laidley (new contract :eek) wouldn't cost his side a ladder position (or two) on % each season. Just feel they'll get this done, by 1-39 (of course :eyes) on player quality rather than numbers :D (sorry mate :lol).

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 20 (August 15th - 17th) Pies are terribly short on the back of their 1 back-to-the-wall win and Port's lame performance last week. Chance of a let-down for the Pies but hard to get a read on Port esp at home. Thought the Dees were value when at $1.90+ considering their form at the MCG and that the Eagles have only backed up a good performance once this season. I find that teams generally cover their exclusions pretty well these days and all it does is inflate their price if the exclusion is big e.g. Judd, Richo, but that being said don't think Hansen and Wirrpanda would make a difference to the game. Melb will win but at a shorter price. Bit hard to go past WB at $1.70+ considering they've played the Lions well in recent times. Think the Doggies will use this game as one to bounce back just like the Swans game. Those are my thoughts so far.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 20 (August 15th - 17th) Yeah, well I snuck in to some Port +17.5...:hope Went with PA, Ad, WC, Dogs, Gee, Nth, Hawks and Freo (tips only) :\

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: AFL Round 20 (August 15th - 17th) I should be feeling confident after nailing 8 winners last week, but Round 20 is a disaster waiting to happen. Nothing is clear cut in any match and many tipping competitions will hinge on what happens this weekend. There isn't much point going into too much depth on all matches when I haven't got the foggiest idea of what will occur. So we'll head straight to Saturday night, where the Lions are walking a tightrope and only one slip will end their season. I never thought I'd see the day where Leigh Matthews would try and emulate Paul Roos' 05/06 gameplan and fail so spectacularly as it did against the Hawks last week. Back home for the first time in a month, they have to throw caution to the wind, but can their obviously injured stars last long enough to topple the Dogs. The Bulldogs have a top three spot wrapped up, but want some decent form under their belt before facing the Hawks in a Preliminary Final Qualifier. They played some good footy against North, but their midfield pressure is below average and subsquently are leaking goals. The Dogs good record at the Gabba and the Lions lack of confidence has the Dogs winning this. The Swans can virtually wrap up fourth spot by beating the Cats on Saturday night, but will need to improve vastly in form. They'll have as many as three players having run-with roles on Geelong's midfielders to try and reduce their scoring. The Swans are rarely blown away and have been competitive with the best without winning this season. The Cats are cruising along and destroying anything in their path. They wont get it their own way against the Swans, but should overpower them in the end in an arm wrestle. Carlton vs North looks the pick of the matches this weekend and is a good test to see how far the Blues have progressed. Their defence has tightened up and their midfield is just about the envy of the competition with the inclusion of Judd. Gibbs will be assigned either Harvey or Wells, and depending on how well he goes may go a long way to deciding the result. You get a consistent output from North every week, but they also give you a huge chance of getting on top of them for periods of matches. In a high scoring game, I fancy North to keep their top four hopes alive, but the Blues will give them a fright. The Saints have been awful since a great half against the Hawks. Surely they didn't get that far ahead of themselves on the back of one decent effort. They are sending a better team to Perth than the one that headed there in round 17. The Dockers midfield is further weakened by the loss of Carr and will once again be heavily depenent on Pavlich and his gang of teenagers to get them home. There is too much for the Saints to lose by letting this slip with Hayes, Dal Santo, Montagna and Gram to dominate. In the other games, Collingwood should hold off Port, Essendon to continue to remain undefeated against Adelaide in Victoria, Melbourne to continue their undefeated record against non-Victorian teams at the MCG against West Coast and Hawthorn should hold off the Tigers. Players missing from best 22's. 1 - Hawthorn 4 - Geelong, Sydney, Western Bulldogs 5 - Port Adelaide, Carlton 6 - Brisbane, Essendon, Collingwood, North Melbourne, St.Kilda, Fremantle 7 - Melbourne, Adelaide, Richmond 9 - West Coast Predictor. Port Adelaide 84 v Collingwood 83 Melbourne 79 v West Coast 82 Essendon 101 v Adelaide 96 Brisbane 92 v W.Bulldogs 104 Sydney 78 v Geelong 101 Richmond 88 v Hawthorn 114 Carlton 95 v North Melbourne 98 Fremantle 88 v St.Kilda 83 Best Bets. Sydney LINE (+25.5) North Melbourne MARGIN (1-39) St.Kilda WIN Best of luck everybody. We're going to need it.

[DeMMa]

Re: AFL Round 20 (August 15th - 17th) Go Pies :)

[DeMMa]

Re: AFL Round 20 (August 15th - 17th) Adelaide by over 39.5/Bulldogs Over 39.5/Carlton Under 39.5 @ $151/1 :) $50 on it

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 20 (August 15th - 17th) Horribly unlucky loss last night...at least spread-wise. Motlop a late out really hurt...Gray was ok, but under-sized, and Westhoff Jrn. just wasn't up t it... ...Still, they had just 1 less shot, and how many Collingwood goals came directly from Port points?! :@ Lade nails the goal late in the 3rd that puts them infront and it's a different game completely...instead Pies go straight down and get it out by 10 and manage to hold into the wind... Brownlow night will be interesting tho. Collingwood by 31 points...3 votes S. Burgoine. 2 votes B. Lade...Davis might sneak in for 1.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 20 (August 15th - 17th) There tends to be a general (nonsense) assumption that BOG has to be from the winning side when realistically having the worst player on the ground can mean just as much to the result.

[DeMMa]

Re: AFL Round 20 (August 15th - 17th) IMO Saints will get floogggedddd!!

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 20 (August 15th - 17th) I thought I told you head doctors to give me a help out this week! :wall Every team that "needed" a win, won... ...every team that didn't care, didn't. :spank Was always going to be a make or break week...but 3?! :puke (You know it's a bad week for tipping when the 'Roos get over the 40 point mark. :( )

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 20 (August 15th - 17th) Hmmm ... where was the ball in the air and kick down the line routine when I needed it? I was talking to a couple of people (connected to the club) during the week about the good old days when the coach would tell you to play on - creates instinctive positive energy, hint ;) hint ;) . Surely just coincidence :unsure :unsure or I'm owed that cup of coffee. Maybe more to the point, they're really starting to believe in their own ability. Guys like Grant, Jones, McMahon have at long last sprung to their good form and talls like Hale and Petrie can seriously "do something!" and a couple of kids that more than hold up, not to mention superstar Wells for that icing on the cake. Big bodies .... I'd give over 3.00 a look next week and the 28.00 Betfair surely is too high to pass up. They could miss fourth should Adelaide or Sydney win both but I suspect neither may not. Then again they could even finish third. Sound like a frig'n Collingwood supporter, don't I? :$ Bulldogs are seriously struggling for confidence. Came out on a mission but as soon as Brisbane put on some great tackling pressure they simply droped the bit. Around mid game they kept taking the wrong option when breaking the arc which also showed how bad the confidence is. I trust you were disciplined enough to take Richmond as the superior odds in that game Taza? :ok

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 20 (August 15th - 17th) I wouldn't have taken Richmond @ 12.50 (or +52.5). :lol

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 20 (August 15th - 17th) Why aren't we all loading up on a Opp/St Kilda HT/FT Double each week :$? Or is that just me not taking it :unsure? Five of their eleven wins they've come from behind at HT.