Wolverhampton 11/08/08

[billy the punter]

Possibly the poorest days racing all season. Just the two races interest me (slightly anyway). 4.00 Golden Prospect won over C&D earlier in the season off a 3lb higher mark. Has disappointed on turf and over further since but is of interest back on the dirt, back over 7f and with first time cheekpieces. Dancing Deano is at best on fibresand, has won here but that was at basement level. Best turf form with give also. Royal Challenge is well treated on old form and now he is getting on 7f may suit. The fact remains however that he was only won over 5 or 6f and his best form has always been on turf. Given that he is unlikely to represent value given those things he is overlooked. Dowlleh hasn't been seen for some time. Mafasina's best form is over 7f on dirt but we have little to go on and only one tailed off run since Jan. Can only be watched at present. Sion Hill isn't that badly treated based on his C&D efforts earlier in the season (something I'd never thought I'd say about this horse given he's rated in the 60s now). This is his best trip and could run well for a long way if allowed an easy lead - which is a possibility. Adantino is well weighted but all best form is over shorter. Yes he did go close LTO at Lingfield over 7f but Hazytoo led all the way at a steady pace. 7f is going to be tough for him always as he needs a strong pace due to his running style but a true 7f would test his stamnia. Has always been better on turf too. Although they aren't badly handicapped It's A Dream and Wisdom Kiss have run below form over this trip. A Big Sky Brewing is in good form, chasing home Willie Ever on his penultimate start before finishing a respectable 5th LTO on ground that may've been softer than ideal. C&D form is 12 and not badly handicapped on the Willie Ever form. Yard are in much better form now too. All You Need runs without headgear here which is puzzling given he doesn't find much off the bridle. 7f streches the stamina too. Fairly weighted but those two worries are off-putting. Ochre Bay made a pleasing comeback LTO after 8 months off the track. Was 5th to Methaaly over C&D and the 1-2-3 have all won since then. Would have chances on that form alone but given he is entitled to come on for this then he has to enter calculations - especially off a 2lb lower mark. 7f at Wolverhampton is ideal for him showing form of 4127435 (4th in this last year off 5lb higher) and he would've been placed when he finished 7th had he not been checked for a run. Have mixed feelings regarding the return of cheekpieces, he has won twice and they were fitted for one of the wins - but in both races he has worn them he has been slowly away. Ran well both times though so the plusses just edge it. Ochre Bay 50% of stake 12 betfair Golden Prospect 20% of stake 11 betfair A Big Sky Brewing 20% of stake 6.8 betfair Sion Hill 10% of stake 26 betfair Plus combo

[billy the punter]

Re: Wolverhampton 11/08/08 4.30 Swords won ridiculously easy LTO. The trip was too short, he was slowly away, he suffered trouble in running more than once - yet won 6l. 10lb higher here but still well handicapped on old form and must have a chance back over 2m. No idea where the booking of Ashley Hamblett comes from though - never ridden for the yard before and the useful looking apprentice who rode him LTO is at the track. Despite what the RP says Brave Bugsy ahas run to form on the surface (also ran a cracker at Lingfield) and must surely find another race soon. Just 2lb higher than when beating Director's Digger in May - the runner up is now rated 19lb higher after winning three times since then. Came from a mile back on his penultimate start (2lb lower here) but disappointed LTO (may've found the rain softened ground against him). Merrymaker is slipping to an attractive mark but poorly weighted with Brave Bugsy. Brave Bugsy 50% of stake Swords 50% of stake Brave Bugsy/Swords/Merrymaker F/C & T/C Combo