Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008

[Rushian]

Following last year's attempt http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/yet-named-ytbn-system-52802/ at creating a football prediction model and having made some necessary adjustments, I am prepared to give it another go. Information about the model itself is given in the link above, but to summarize it's based on modelling the actual scorelines of matches in the English Premiership, Championship, League 1 and 2 using some explanatory variables which deal with the standard of the competing teams, their current form, etc. The model produces estimated probabilities which are then translated into "fair" odds. The suggested picks represent value according to the model when compared to the available bookmaker prices. Let me repeat that the model is still under development so this is a paper trail. Level stakes will be used and to make things a bit easier to follow, I'll use only prices available from bookmakers rather than betting exchanges. The bookmakers considered will be the ones available through the football-data website. One last thing: the system attempts to find "value" bets. This means that the strike rate will be low (around 30%-35%) and I am expecting around 1000 bets over the whole season. Wish me luck! :hope Rushian P.S: Oh, and I've thought of a highly imaginative name for the system ... ;)

[aliando]

Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 good luck rushian! shouldnt the thread be called "the now named system"? ;)