Kempton (eve) 6/8/08

[fintron]

Draw bias Based on every Kempton race in 2007 in which there were 8+ runners....

• In the 500+ races I looked at in races from 2008 R. Hughes, R. Moore, JP Spencer, N. Callan, W. Buick and I. Mongan were jockeys with a decent no. of wins here. Trainers to note were R. Hannon, A. Balding, D. Shaw and P. Cole

Some other stats RE AW racing in general (calculated from results in 2008 from all five AW courses)..........

• 63 % of 319 handicaps won by a horse from the top five in the weights (only races with 10 + runners were analysed).....

• Horses within the price bracket of 5/2 to 8/1 accounted for 60 % of 319 handicap wins, 20 % were priced 9/4 or less and the remaining 20 % were 17/2+.
• Vast majority of handicap winners came from first four in the betting....

Finally, In 100 AW maidens 53 % were won by favs, 83 % had previous racecourse experience, 84 % of winners came from first three in the betting.

[fintron]

Re: Kempton (eve) 6/8/08 8.50 King Hafhafah looks overpriced to me at 25/1 (widely avail) here. His record on the AW is better than that on turf. On his debut last October he won a Lingfield maiden which has produced subsequent winners in the shape of Southpaw Lad, Tina's Best, and Nice Wee Girl, who are all horses rated in the 70's. Admittedly, King Hafharah is rated 82 here, quite a bit higher than that, but a second to Geezer's colours on his next appearance reads well as that rival won 3 of its next 4, with the last coming off 83. For his next two runs he ran in a couple of listed races at Ling. In the first he was around a 4-length 5th on his reappearance. Again he found Geezer's colours too good (3rd), whilst the other two at the front were fairly useful types. Tasdeer (2nd), went on to pick up two conditions stakes races subsequently at Donc and Grl off 92 and 93. 1st, Paco Boy, looks a very smart performer indeed and completed the five timer with two Group wins since he took that Spring Cup race at Ling. For his next run he ran in another Listed race at Ling, but from one of the worst draws he failed to land a blow. Hopefully that poor run can also be accounted for by the quality of the race, and he won't face as strong opponents here for this class 4 handicap. He's shown little in his last three turf, but other than for improving fitness, that turf form could mean very little for this AW race anyway. Prepared to take a chance at the odds.