Brighton 6th August

[billy the punter]

I'm off down to Brighton for a few days and will probably go to at least two of their festival days. Choreography runs tomorrow so I'll definitely be there for that. I'm really confident about tomorrow's bets - famous last words. :) 3.00 I backed Spanish Diva at Windsor on Monday night and even though I know she finds little off the bridle I was shocked when she didn't go on to win. I might be mad to give her another chance but I just think she is so well handicapped at the moment. She has the ability to win off a mark of 67 I'm certain of that, she ran close to some well handicapped types last season off higher marks and she has run to marks of around 70 in maidens. The RP says she is vunerable off her current mark - that is nonsense. She is vunerable due to her head. In fact if she wanted to I'm certain she could win off her future mare (+5lbs). Being a bridle horse I'm not worried about the weak William Carson on board. You never know, she may take to Brighton, she wouldn't be the first horse of her kind to click here. The consistent (off current mark) Gracechurch looks likely to benefit is she puts the breaks on. No money about at the moment on betfair. She is currently 1.75 a place so there may be an angle there. At the moment though it's a win bet for me (with laying back in-running at around evens) with a saver on Gracechurch. 4.00 This is a real decent race for the course. As a punter I'm glad the good prize money on offer is being chased by 16 runners. As an owner I'm gutted there isn't 7 runners! The market is headed by Count Ceprano. Been on the go solidly since last December but looks as good as ever. No surprise to see him bolt up in an apprentice race at Goodwood on Saturday and runs here off the same mark. Although David Probert was head and shoulders ahead of the other pilots in that race that wasn't the reason for the win - this horse would've won no matter who was on board. Finished close to Yamal and The Fifth Member off a pound higher in two runs previously (also 6th in Victoria Cup earlier) so it's likely he wasn't flattered by the apprentice race win. Likely to act here and must be feared. Ivory Lace also looks well handicapped off her current mark of 80. Best run of the season last week when 4th to Yamal at Goodwood and won off 85 in September. Record here 113313. Never won over this trip though. Mount Hermon is still well treated but has to show he can act on turf. Eastern Emperor was a nice winner for me at Windsor and will be more at home at this trip as opposed to the 7f he was dropped to LTO. He travelled well that day though and his winning hasn't stopped. Not 100% sure he will act around here though. So we come to Choreograhpy. He runs off a career high mark of 76 but I always thought he'd be a high 70s horse (had an massive bet on him last year off 74 the day he got injured) so the mark itself doesn't worry me - however with the hike comes the higher grades due to being handicapped out of Class 5s etc. He loves it around here and is in the form of his life. He does stay a mile although he is probably a couple of pound better at 7f (no more than couple of pound though). The handicapper has been harsh on him in my opinion. Has gone up 17lb in 7 races, despite only winning twice. LTO can be ignored as Yarmouth's long straight didn't suit. Sure he will win more races around here and under ideal conditions he is very consistent. If I'm honest I don't think he has the class of the two horses at the head of the weights but I'm certain he will run well and I'd be disappointed if he wasn't in the first six home. Wish us luck. :hope Choreography 40% of stake 15 betfair Count Ceprano 40% of stake 5.8 betfair Ivory Lace 15% of stake 9 betfair Eastern Emperor 5% of stake 23 betfair Plus combos. 4.30 This is an open 3yo handicap but I will be siding with: Thunder Gorge - Ran very well last three times against three of my selections (Eastern Emperor, Light From Mars and Willow Dancer), did well to get clsoe to those as they were well handicapped horses and all three runs are solid form for the grade. Looks certain to find a race very soon. This Ones For Eddy - Bit inconsistent so far but well handicapped on best. Ran above his mark of 62 in a maiden LTO and that was a fair maiden for Redcar. Another who looks like a certain winner soon. They will be around 4/1, 9/2 I would imagine and I'll be doing a simple 50/50 split with regards to stakes. 5.00 to follow

[Trilobite]

Re: Brighton 6th August Good luck with Choreography Bill :hope What do you think about the Pace in this one? I only have one real front runner in Officer , with maybe Moonlight Man and Lord Theo pressing ?