AJ Posted August 3, 2008 Share Posted August 3, 2008 It is my opinion that I'm facing an overpair, most likely Aces or Kings. $3 in the pot, he's just bet out $4 on the flop. I'm drawing, at best I have 15 outs (9 diamonds, 3 x 7, 3 x 9) correct me if I'm wrong here but I think I'm actually favourite here against an overpair, even if it includes a diamond ? This is an instacall right ? no one is folding here ? supersteezy is a passive calling station, he could have any two cards, he hardly ever folds preflop SweetNessie is tight, 10% VP$IP, and 7% preflop raise. He's not playing air, he has a serious hand POKERSTARS GAME #19317973678: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.10/$0.25) - 2008/08/03 - 03:54:51 (ET) Table 'Brixia' 9-max Seat #9 is the button Seat 1: fier342 ($41.80 in chips) Seat 2: Sick M ($23.40 in chips) Seat 3: RollTideRoll ($37.75 in chips) Seat 4: SweetNessie ($25.80 in chips) Seat 5: shwarlton ($9.20 in chips) Seat 6: asjohnstone ($14.40 in chips) Seat 7: waterdevyl19 ($18.60 in chips) Seat 8: supersteezy ($27.45 in chips) Seat 9: OrphandGland ($17.40 in chips) fier342: posts small blind $0.10 Sick M: posts big blind $0.25 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to asjohnstone [Td Jd] RollTideRoll: folds SweetNessie: raises $0.75 to $1 shwarlton: folds shwarlton leaves the table asjohnstone: calls $1 waterdevyl19: folds supersteezy: calls $1 OrphandGland: folds esujisu joins the table at seat #5 fier342: folds Sick M: folds *** FLOP *** [5s 9d 8d] SweetNessie: bets $4 Asjohnstone ???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nade Posted August 3, 2008 Share Posted August 3, 2008 Re: Implied Odds Not an instacall but an instashove for me with $13 left. You're 2/1 fave against an under pair and about 50/50 against an overpair, you've got a huge drawing hand, plus shoving gives the chance for them to fold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted August 3, 2008 Share Posted August 3, 2008 Re: Implied Odds Not an instacall but an instashove for me with $13 left. I agree. Against many hands you're a favourite, but only if you get to see both the turn and river. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveO Posted August 3, 2008 Share Posted August 3, 2008 Re: Implied Odds Massive hand, you don't hit flops any better than that. get it all in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wurzel133 Posted August 3, 2008 Share Posted August 3, 2008 Re: Implied Odds agree with above shove but if hes so tight why call in the 1st place? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ubermonkey1 Posted August 3, 2008 Share Posted August 3, 2008 Re: Implied Odds yeah shove for me as well:ok give yourself 2 chances of winning the pot. i sort of agree with wurzel on the call preflop but only because you are a little on the short side,so your implied odds are diminished. that said with the calling station to act after maybe you were hoping for a multiway pot with the call , it then becomes more worthwhile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted August 3, 2008 Author Share Posted August 3, 2008 Re: Implied Odds I agree. Against many hands you're a favourite' date=' but only if you get to see both the turn and river.[/quote'] That was the point of the thread, couple of times recently, I've flat called these missed the turn and been pushed off on the river. Been wondering if the push is a better option. Anyways I flat call here He puts me on a flush draw and puts me all in, just the situation I'd faced in the past (if I really was chasing a flush and hadn't just made my straight ) I obviously call and he shows a pair of kings (inc a diamond so he had a back door draw at my flush) I agree I should have pushed the flop, but lets flip this around, is there anything he could have done better on that flop. If he'd put me all in are we still so keen to make the call ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted August 3, 2008 Share Posted August 3, 2008 Re: Implied Odds I think the $7 in the pot, plus the even money you have behind you, means that its correct to call. :unsure Implied odds aren't my strongest but it 'looks' the right thing to do. :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted August 3, 2008 Share Posted August 3, 2008 Re: Implied Odds That was the point of the thread' date=' couple of times recently, I've flat called these missed the turn and been pushed off on the river.[/quote'] I don't think that being pushed off on the river is the main point. It's that you could be pushed off on the turn. With the hands as they were, you're favourite if it goes to the river, but if you miss on the turn, and he raises all-in, then I don't think you have the odds (against his actual hand, at least) to call. Typically, in these hands where you have a straight and flush draw on the flop, you have around a 30-35% chance of making your hand on the turn, and around a 30-35% chance of making it on the river if you miss on the turn. And you have around a 55-60% chance of making your hand by the river. If your opponent has an overpair, you're a slight favourite, so obviously going all-in is better than folding. But suppose you both know what the other has (not realistic, I know, but just to make the mathematical point), and suppose you call on the flop. Then whenever you miss on the turn, he'll go all-in and push you off (assuming the stacks are deep enough that he can bet enough that you don't have the pot odds to chase your 30-35% draw). So he'll win the pot whenever you miss on the turn, which is about 65-70% of the time. So you've put yourself in a situation where you only have a 30-35% chance of winning the pot, so just calling may be worse than folding, which is worse than going all-in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nade Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 Re: Implied Odds obviously call and he shows a pair of kings (inc a diamond so he had a back door draw at my flush) I agree I should have pushed the flop, but lets flip this around, is there anything he could have done better on that flop. If he'd put me all in are we still so keen to make the call ? If he was to put you AI on the flop it'd look a lot like they had AdKd. It would be a tough call anyway, i'd probably wince whilst calling... Don't think there's anything wrong with the way you played the hand, only there might be a little more value in shoving. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robsterling Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 Re: Implied Odds If he was to put you AI on the flop it'd look a lot like they had AdKd. It would be a tough call anyway, i'd probably wince whilst calling... Don't think there's anything wrong with the way you played the hand, only there might be a little more value in shoving. Would be very hard (impossible even) to put him on a range that tight. I am always getting it all in on this flop, always. It's not even about "Implied Odds", its about equity and against virtually all his range you are favourite. I put up a few combo draws in Nade's 'Biggest Winning & Losing Hands Thread" as I always seem to miss them with 76s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.