Thirsk 1/8/08

[fintron]

4.25 I don't think the 7/4 fav, Steel Blue, is worth a bet at the price. He won LTO at Donc but prior to that hadn't won for almost a year. He's up in class, has been raised 6 lbs in the handicap and carries a 6 lb penalty. He's going to have to put in a very good performance to take this. There are quite a few formlines through John Keats here. The aforementioned beat High Curragh by 1 3/4 l at Donc in June when receiving 11 lbs. Today he is only receiving 5 lbs. River Thames was beaten by John Keats too earlier in June (btn 0.75 l) but is 11 lbs better off today even before Fredi Tylicki's 7 lb claim is taken into account. Tawzeea could be dangerous to dismiss as he drops in class here. Mark Johnstons Cadeaux Generaux colt has winning form over this distance and at this class, but is 5 lbs above his highest ever winning mark and non of the rivals he has beaten in his wins at Catterick and Hamilton look anything too special on current ratings. All in all, River Thames gets the nod for me (4/1). He's effectively 18 lbs better off with John Keats and came close over CD off his current mark of 79 when up against that rival a few runs ago. IMO Tylicki is worth his 7lb claim too.