Kempton 30/7/08

[fintron]

The usual Wednesday Kempton meeting is on again tonight, but IMO there aren't any stand out bets this time as there was last week. 6.00 5 furlong maiden to open the card. Hold that Call, Jalons Bridewell, Shatter Resistant and Feeling Pretty are the four with previous experience of the polytrack. Feeling Pretty was well beaten in a poor Wolv seller and hasn't gone on since. Hold That Call has never managed better than a 3rd from 13 races but that came on turf and he's made little impression on the AW. Shatter Resistant is a former Mick Channon horse now in the hands of M D Squance. He has gone well on the AW earlier in his career but looks very inconsistent. He had every chance entering the final furlong at Wolv recently but hung left and finished 2 lengths off the winner back in 6th, but on his next AW he was poor at Grl, again hung left and weakened, so I'm prepared to watch that one. Jalons Bridewell appears to have the best form of the quartet. He was infront of Shatter Resistant in that aforementioned Wolv race and was backed into 6's from 12/1 that day, only finishing 1.5 lengths off the winner. 2nd (Heaven) has boosted the form by winning its next two. Jalons Bridewell is suited to running on this surface and has gone close at Wolv and Ling with defeats by 0.5 l, 0.38l and 0.75 l to suggest there could be a win in him soon. He's only ran here once, on his second career outing, and finished 4/11. He faded away in the final furlong (raced over 6f that day) after a slow start, but may be able to finally shed his maiden tag in a modest maiden here dropped back in trip. Of those racing on the AW for the first time, Silvanus holds the strongest form. His debut 5th at York last year has worked out well with 4th, 3rd and 2nd all winning since, and his Yarmouth 2nd this season too looks ok bearing in mind 3rd won NTO. He was sent off the 2/5 f LTO at Haydock and weakened in the final furlong (over 6f) to finish 3rd. 4th has just won at Redcar in a modest handicap. So Jalon's Bridewell is my main bet, and will save on Silvanus if it is priced up around the 4/5 forecast on Sport Life.

[fintron]

Re: Kempton 30/7/08 6.30 Class 6 handicap over a mile here. Very little strong AW form in here to find a winner. Broughton's Flight put in a decent effort over 7f here back in December. Racing in a nursery handicap off 64 she was a 1 length second to Tiger's Rocket (who has done OK on the AW since) after being subject to quite a bit of support (8/1 into 4's). She has switched to the turf since and has been stepped up in trip. She ran OK at Bev over 10f and finished 2nd of 6 (btn 1.5) to suggest that a mile may be within her. Welsh Opera finished 4th in a lingfield maiden last year and was a couple of lengths off Nice Wee Girl, who won off 65 at Wolv this year (rated 82 for last run on turf). The 3rd has been running ok on turf since and was rated 70 for its last run. Welsh Oprta is rated as low as 59 for this and has been eased in the handicap after some disappointing efforts of truf. A draw of stall 11 is another plus. Sport Life tissues are 14/1 and 7/1 respectively so will have 1 pt on each if prices are as high as that.