Southwell 28/7/08

[fintron]

2.15 Only Coniston Wood of these has raced on fibresand before, finishing a 10.25 length 6th of 12 over 6f here earlier in the month. The form of that race looks okay, as 2nd and 3rd have won since (4th and 5th not raced since). She should come on for the run and after weakening 1f out last time, the drop back to 5f here may suit. However, with the stalls placed high for this sprint, stall 3, may not be ideal. Lesley's Choice is the forecast fav and is the mount of sand king Neil Callan. He showed promise on his debut, finishing a 0.75 length 2nd behind Brierty at Warwick. The form of that race hasn't worked out particularly well, but his 3rd to Penny's Gift NTO looks much better, as that rival won again NTO and then ran very well (2nd) at Royal Ascot in pattern company. 7th has run OK since and 9th did win subsequently here at Southwell, but the form of the remainder isn't anything out of the ordinary. He was 6th at Chepstow LTO and again, the form comment was that he faded in the final furlong, suggesting the drop back in trip should suit here. High draw (13) could also be a help here. Lesley's Choice 2/1 Coniston Wood 12/1 EW

[fintron]

Re: Southwell 28/7/08 3.15 (6f claimer) Draw Bias - just looked at 64 races over 6f here (8+ runners only). 23 % drawn in bottom third of draw, 36 % in middle, 41 % drawn high, so a high draw doesn't seem to be a hindrence even though stalls are placed low over 6f+ here. Varadouro - backed this one on his first run of the season in a modest race at Pontefract because he was a group winner in Brazil. He was smashed in that day and managed a close up 4th. I've not really followed him since but he has run well on both occassions he's tackled fibresand. He won a handicap over CD off 68 (very comfortably) and only went down by 1.25 lengths, again over CD, when upped to class 4 on his last run here (rated 79 that day), when he found only Diriculous too good. He drops into claiming company here and running off 79 looks to have a very good chance. 7/4 fav Swinbrook - finished infront of Varadouro in that aforementioned race at Pontefract and is 5 lb better off at the weights today. His CD win came in a class 4 handicap off 70 back in April but all of his runs have come on turf since. He's rated 70 again for this but in this claimer must have good claims too. 5/2 Copperbottomed - three course wins (2 sellers, 1 claimer) off 62, 62 and 67 mean he must have a chance here off 68. Won a seller three runs ago at Wolv of his current mark and only found Bertbrand too good NTO (btn 2.5 lengths). Poor run at Grl LTO when was slowly into stride, but can't be dismissed in such a race. 12/1 Hamaasy is a former Dandy runner now with Ron Harris. He certainly knows how to win around here and has 4 course and distance victories, the latest of which was back in April (claimer) off his current mark of 59 (has won handicaps here though too off 59). Kevin Ghunowa takes off 3 lbs here to assist and although disappointed at Wolv LTO on debut for new yard, has never gone well there in the past so probably best just to ignore his 6/6 LTO. 10/1 You could make a strong case for any of these really...Varadouro is the highest rated in the field and has form in class 4 handicaps on this surface, Swinbrook is possibly weighted to reverse his form with Varadouro, whilst both Copperbottomed and Hamaasy know how to win at this level. I'm oping for an 80/20 bet here though so Hamaasy is my pick at the prices. A high draw may also be a help.