Guest vdroplet Posted December 20, 2003 Share Posted December 20, 2003 While testing my system for alternating over/unders I noticed that teams with long runs of such results produce over or under with roughly equal probability. This probability seems to have little dependence on odds. German football (at least in this year) offered many examples of such teams. So I decided to find teams with long runs of alternating over/unders and bet on the outcome with the odds over 2. This will show profit for strike rate of 50%. Starting bank is 100 points and stake is 2 points unless stated otherwise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted December 20, 2003 Share Posted December 20, 2003 Re: Alternating o/u system Here are first selections 20/12 Watford v Stoke Over 2.04 @ Betfair 21/12 Siena v Bologna Over 2.14 @ Pinnacle 21/12 Betis v Villareal Over 2.17 @ Pinnacle 21/12 Sociedad v Valladolid Over 2.15 @ Canbet 21/12 Pacos Ferreira v Academica Over 2.09 @ Pinnacle 21/12 Antwerp v Beveren Under 2.11 @ Pinnacle 20/12 Bastia v Lille Over 2.2 @ Marathonbet 20/12 Nantes v Auxerre Over 2.25 @ Marathonbet 20/12 Sporting v Leiria Under 2.2 @ Marathonbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted December 23, 2003 Share Posted December 23, 2003 Re: Alternating o/u system Have failed to reach strike rate of 50%. It interesting that most of the matches produced away wins by 2 and more goals. 20.12.03 Watford v Stoke Over :D 21.12.03 Siena v Bologna Over :rolleyes 21.12.03 Betis v Villareal Over :D 20.12.03 Sociedad v Valladolid Over :D 21.12.03 Pacos v Academica Over :rolleyes 21.12.03 Antwerp v Beveren Under :rolleyes 20.12.03 Bastia v Lille Over :rolleyes 20.12.03 Nantes v Auxerre Over :rolleyes 20.12.03 Sporting v Leiria Under :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted December 26, 2003 Share Posted December 26, 2003 Re: Boxing day 26/12 Liverpool v Bolton Over 2.06 @ Pinnacle 26/12 Coventry v Sheffield United Over 2.06 @ Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted December 26, 2003 Share Posted December 26, 2003 Re: Boxing day Found better prices at Canbet: 2.10 for Liverpool and 2.20 for Coventry game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted December 26, 2003 Share Posted December 26, 2003 Re: Boxing day Just realized that because of Canbet's high odds another bet qualifies for the system: 26/12 Chesterfield v Peterborough Over 2.10 @ Canbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted December 27, 2003 Share Posted December 27, 2003 Re: results 26.12.03 Liverpool v Bolton Over :D 26.12.03 Coventry v Sheffield U Over :rolleyes 26.12.03 Chesterfield v Peterborough Over :D Will publish summary after 29 December. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted December 28, 2003 Share Posted December 28, 2003 Re: 28/12 Sheffield United v Wigan Over 2.05 @ Canbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted December 30, 2003 Share Posted December 30, 2003 Re: results 28.12.03 Sheffield U v Wigan Over :rolleyes Starting Bank 100 Current Bank 99.52 Profit -0.48 Units Staked 26 Yield -1.8% Number of bets 13 Strike Rate 46.2% Average Odds 2.14 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted January 3, 2004 Share Posted January 3, 2004 Re: 03/01 Celtic v Rangers Under 2.1 @ Canbet 03/01 Plymouth v Chesterfield Under 2.05 @ Marathonbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted January 4, 2004 Share Posted January 4, 2004 Re: results Bad luck with Rangers: missed their previous match which would have been winner and late goal today bringing another looser. 03.01.04 Celtic v Rangers Under :rolleyes 03.01.04 Plymouth v Chesterfield Under :rolleyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted January 6, 2004 Share Posted January 6, 2004 Re: seria A 06/01 Juventus v Perugia Under 2.3 @ Canbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted January 7, 2004 Share Posted January 7, 2004 Re: results 06.01.04 Juventus v Perugia Under :D Starting Bank 100 Current Bank 98.12 Profit -1.88 Units Staked 32 Yield -5.9% Number of bets 16 Strike Rate 43.8% Average Odds 2.14 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted January 10, 2004 Share Posted January 10, 2004 Re: 10/01 Birmingham v Southampton Over 2.35 @ Canbet 10/01 Crystal Palace v Burnley Under 2.05 @ Canbet 10/01 West Ham v Preston Under 2.05 @ Betfair 10/01 Chesterfield v Wrexham Over 2.15 @ Canbet 10/01 Hartlepool v Peterborough Over 2.15 @ Canbet 11/01 Betis v Malaga Over 2.15 @ Pinnacle 11/01 Braga v Belenenses Over 2.04 @ Pinnacle 10/01 PSG v Lille Over 2.20 @ Marathonbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted January 11, 2004 Share Posted January 11, 2004 Re: 11/01 Leicester v Chelsea Over 2.06 @ Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted January 13, 2004 Share Posted January 13, 2004 Re: results 10.01.04 Birmingham v Southampton Over :D 10.01.04 Crystal Palace v Burnley Under :D 10.01.04 West Ham v Preston Under :rolleyes 10.01.04 Chesterfield v Wrexham Over :D 10.01.04 Hartlepool v Peterborough Over :rolleyes 10.01.04 PSG v Lille Over :rolleyes 11.01.04 Betis v Malaga Over :D 11.01.04 Braga v Belenenses Over :D 11.01.04 Leicester v Chelsea Over :D Starting Bank 100 Current Bank 105.72 Profit 5.72 Units Staked 50 Yield 11.4% Number of bets 25 Strike Rate 52% Average Odds 2.138 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted January 17, 2004 Share Posted January 17, 2004 Re: 17/01 Middlesborough v Leicester Over 2.15 @ Pinnacle 17/01 Sheffield U v West Ham Over 2.01 @ Pinnacle 17/01 Watford v Crystal Palace Over 2.01 @ Betfair 17/01 Millwall v Sunderland Over 2.25 @ Canbet 17/01 Standard v Mouscron Under 2.45 @ Canbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted January 20, 2004 Share Posted January 20, 2004 Re: results Good weekend for the system. I can't remember any other day with so many goals in Division 1 as on Saturday. Walsall finished their run of 10 unders in a row with 1-6. Another interesting thing is that 3 out of 5 matches selected by the system resulted in 3-3 draws. Just read Danny's post where he gives value odds for this result about 84. Even taking in account that one of the matches was in Belgium, odds in a treble would have been over 50000. Moreover, scores in ALL three matches changed as follows: 0-0, 1-0, 1-3, 3-3. I guess the odds for this to happen are about the same as getting right 6 numbers out of 49 in a lottery. 17.01.04 Middlesbrough v Leicester Over :) 17.01.04 Sheffield U v West Ham Over :) 17.01.04 Watford v Crystal Palace Over :) 17.01.04 Millwall v Subderland Over :) 17.01.04 Standard v Mouscron Under :( Starting Bank 100 Current Bank 112.56 Profit 12.56 Units Staked 60 Yield 20.9% Number of bets 30 Strike Rate 56.7% Average Odds 2.144 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted January 24, 2004 Share Posted January 24, 2004 Re: 25/01 Espanyol v Betis Over 2.15 @ Canbet 24/01 Vitesse v Heerenven Under 2.04 @ Pinnacle 24/01 Rangers v Livingston Under 2.52 @ Betfair 24/01 Bradford v Crystal Palace Over 2.10 @ Canbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted January 26, 2004 Share Posted January 26, 2004 Re: 26/01 Boavista v Beira Mar Over 2.08 @ Betdaq Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted January 26, 2004 Share Posted January 26, 2004 Re: Forgot about comission in the last bet. Correct odds are 2.04 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted January 28, 2004 Share Posted January 28, 2004 Re: results As a week before fifth selection proved to be wrong. Just noticed that in the period from 11 to 25 January system produced 11 right results out of 12 selections at odds over 2. I remember IOB thread and Cjamar's challenge where these same figures (11 out of 12) were the subject of hot debate. This is another proof that such things can happen even with no in-debth analysis of matches. I hope that loosing runs will be not as long as 11 out of 12. :) 24.01.04 Vitesse v Heerenven Under :) 24.01.04 Rangers v Livingston Under :) 24.01.04 Bradford v Crystal Palace Over :) 25.01.04 Espanyol v Betis Over :) 26.01.04 Boavista v Beira Mar Over :( Starting Bank 100 Current Bank 120.18 Profit 20.18 Units Staked 70 Yield 28.8% Number of bets 35 Strike Rate 60% Average Odds 2.148 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted January 31, 2004 Share Posted January 31, 2004 Re: 31/01 Crewe v Millwall Over 2.1 @ Canbet 31/01 Bochum v Wolfsburg Under 2.2 @ Betdaq 01/02 Osnabruck v Ahlen Under 2.1 @ Pinnacle 31/01 Brechia v Roma Over 2.1 @ Pinnacle 01/02 Valladolid v Real Madrid Over 2.05 @ Pointbet 01/02 Mallorca v Athletic Bilbao Over 2.05 @ Pointbet 31/01 Auxerre v Bordeaux Over 2.25 @ Marathonbet 01/02 Sint Truiden v Anderlecht Under 2.25 @ Marathonbet 01/02 Groningen v Vollendam Under 2.2 @ Marathonbet 01/02 Guimaraes v Boavista Over 2.1 @ Marathonbet 02/02 Alverca v Beira Mar Over 2.04 @ Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted February 5, 2004 Share Posted February 5, 2004 Re: results 31.01.04 Crewe v Millwall Over :) 31.01.04 Bochum v Wolfsburg Under :) 31.01.04 Brechia v Roma Over :( 31.01.04 Auxerre v Bordeaux Over :) 01.02.04 Osnabruck v Ahlen Under :( 01.02.04 Valladolid v Real Madrid Over :) 01.02.04 Mallorca v Athletic Bilbao Over :) 01.02.04 Sint Truiden v Anderlecht Under :( 01.02.04 Groningen v Vollendam Under :) 01.02.04 Guimaraes v Boavista Over :( 02.02.04 Alverca v Beira Mar Over :) Starting Bank 100 Current Bank 127.96 Profit 27.96 Units Staked 92 Yield 30.4% Number of bets 46 Strike Rate 60.9% Average Odds 2.143 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted February 7, 2004 Share Posted February 7, 2004 Re: 08/02 Manchester C v Birmigham Over 2.1 @ Canbet 07/02 Wycombe C v Brighton Under 2.15 @ Canbet 07/02 Hamburg v Bochum Under 2.17 @ Pinnacle 08/02 Aue v Trier Under 2.06 @ Pinnacle 08/02 Santander v Betis Over 2.18 @ Pinnacle 08/02 Maritimo v Pacos Ferreira Over 2.08 @ Pinnacle 07/02 Westerlo v Sint Truiden Under 2.05 @ Marathonbet 07/02 Porto v Leiria Under 2.1 @ Marathonbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted February 7, 2004 Share Posted February 7, 2004 Re: Forgot about French league and found better odds for Porto v Leiria match: 07/02 Marseille v Ajaccio Over 2.21 @ Betdaq 07/02 Porto v Leiria Under 2.43 @ Betdaq Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted February 11, 2004 Share Posted February 11, 2004 Re: results 07.02.04 Wycombe v Brighton Under :) 07.02.04 Hamburg v Bochum Under :) 07.02.04 Westerlo v Sint Truiden Under :( 07.02.04 Porto v Leiria Under :( 07.02.04 Marseille v Ajaccio Over :) 08.02.04 Manchester C v Birmingham Over :( 08.02.04 Aue v Trier Under :( 08.02.04 Santander v Betis Over :) 08.02.04 Maritimo v Pacos Ferreira Over :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted February 12, 2004 Share Posted February 12, 2004 Re: 11/02 Liverpool v Manchester C Under 2.06 @ Pinnacle 11/02 Portsmouth v Chelsea Over 2.01 @ Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osesame Posted February 12, 2004 Share Posted February 12, 2004 Re: Hi vdroplet Can you update your records for the league table please Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted February 13, 2004 Share Posted February 13, 2004 Re: results 11.02.04 Liverpool v Manchester C Under :( 11.02.04 Portsmouth v Chelsea Over :( Starting Bank 100 Current Bank 124.38 Profit 24.38 Units Staked 114 Yield 21.4% Number of bets 57 Strike Rate 56.1% Average Odds 2.142 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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