Guest vdroplet Posted February 14, 2004 Share Posted February 14, 2004 Re: 14/02 Crystal Palace v Stoke Over 2.07 @ Pinnacle 14/02 Ipswich v Bradford Under 2.21 @ Betfair 14/02 Frankfurt v Hansa Under 2.06 @ Pinnacle 15/02 Union v Aue Under 2.04 @ Pinnacle 15/02 Betis v Zaragoza Over 2.1 @ Canbet 15/02 Villareal v Santander Over 2.1 @ Canbet 14/02 Le Mans v Marseille Over 2.47 @ Betdaq 14/02 Antwerp v Charleroi Under 2.1 @ Canbet 14/02 Heerenven v Willem II Under 2.15 @ Canbet 15/02 Pacos Ferreira v Beira Mar Over 2.08 @ Pinnacle 15/02 Braga v Maritimo Over 2.05 @ Canbet 15/02 Genclerbirligi v Galatasaray Under 2.04 @ Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 Re: results 14.02.04 Crystal Palace v Stoke Over :rollin 14.02.04 Ipswich v Bradford Under :( 14.02.04 Frankfurt v Hansa Under :) 14.02.04 Le Mans v Marseille Over :( 14.02.04 Antwerp v Charleroi Under :( 14.02.04 Heerenven v Willem II Under :) 15.02.04 Union v Aue Under :( 15.02.04 Betis v Zaragoza Over :) 15.02.04 Villarreal v Santander Over :rollin 15.02.04 Pacos Ferreira v Beira Mar Over :) 15.02.04 Braga v Maritimo Over :( 15.02.04 Genclerbirligi v Galatasaray Under :( Starting Bank 100 Current Bank 124.5 Profit 24.5 Units Staked 138 Yield 17.7% Number of bets 69 Strike Rate 55.1% Average Odds 2.139 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted February 21, 2004 Share Posted February 21, 2004 Re: Friday fixtures 20/02 Beira Mar v Braga Over 2.03 @ Pinnacle 20/02 Mons v Genk Under 2.05 @ Marathonbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted February 21, 2004 Share Posted February 21, 2004 Re: 21/02 Stoke v Wigan Over 2.01 @ Betdaq 22/02 Hertha v Frankfurt Under 2.1 @ Pinnacle 22/02 Udinese v Ancona Over 2.02 @ Pinnacle 21/02 Bayern v Hamburg Under 2.25 @ Betfair 21/02 Hansa v Hannover Under 2.25 @ Betfair 21/02 Rennes v Ajaccio Over 2.26 @ Betdaq 22/02 Marseille v Nantes Over 2.25 @ Marathonbet 21/02 Plymouth v Port Vale Under 2.14 @ Marathonbet 21/02 Bristol C v Wrexham Over 2.01 @ Marathonbet 22/02 Gil Vicente v Sporting Under 2.1 @ Marathonbet 22/02 Nacional v Benfica Under 2.1 @ Marathonbet 21/02 Genclerbirligi v Bursaspor Under 2.1 @ Marathonbet 22/02 Diyarbakispor v Adanaspor Under 2.1 @ Marathonbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted February 25, 2004 Share Posted February 25, 2004 Re: results 20.02.04 Mons v Genk Under :) 20.02.04 Beira Mar v Braga Over :( 21.02.04 Stoke v Wigan Over :( 21.02.04 Bayern v Hamburg Under :) 21.02.04 Hansa v Hannover Under :( 21.02.04 Rennes v Ajaccio Over :) 21.02.04 Plymouth v Port Vale Under :( 21.02.04 Bristol C v Wrexham Over :( 21.02.04 Genclerbirligi v Bursaspor Under :) 22.02.04 Hertha v Frankfurt Under :( 22.02.04 Udinese v Ancona Over :) 22.02.04 Marseille v Nantes Over :( 22.02.04 Gil Vicente v Sporting Under :) 22.02.04 Nacional v Benfica Under :( 22.02.04 Diyarbakirspor v Adanaspor Under :( Starting Bank 100 Current Bank 120.06 Profit 20.06 Units Staked 168 Yield 11.9% Number of bets 84 Strike Rate 52.4% Average Odds 2.135 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted February 28, 2004 Share Posted February 28, 2004 Re: Friday fixture 27/02 Guimaraes v Nacional Over 2.16 @ Betdaq Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted February 28, 2004 Share Posted February 28, 2004 Re: 28/02 Crewe v Stoke Over 2.05 @ Cannbet 29/02 Portsmouth v Newcastle Over 2.03 @ Pinnacle 28/02 Frankfurt v Borussia M Over 2.1 @ Pointbet 28/02 Bochum v Hansa Under 2.04 @ Pinnacle 29/02 Lazio v Milan Over 2.05 @ Pinnacle 29/02 Juventus v Ancona Under 2.45 @ Betdaq 29/02 Amadora v Beira Mar Over 2.01 @ Pinnacle 28/02 Sheffield W v Bristol C Over 2.1 @ Cannbet 28/02 Roosendal v Breda Under 2.1 @ Cannbet 29/02 Ajaccio v Bordeaux Over 2.3 @ Fonbet 29/02 Auxerre v PSG Over 2.25 @ Fonbet 29/02 Konyaspor v Genclerbirligi Under 2.05 @ Fonbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted February 29, 2004 Share Posted February 29, 2004 Re: better odds Found better prices on the exchanges today: Juventus v Ancona 2.56 @ Betfair Lazio v Milan 2.23 @ Betdaq Portsmouth v Newcastle 2.08 @ Betdaq Auxerre v PSG 2.38 @ Betdaq Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted March 3, 2004 Share Posted March 3, 2004 Re: results None of the better odds proved to be of any use. 27.02.04 Guimaraes v Nacional Over :) 28.02.04 Frankfurt v Borussia M Over :) 28.02.04 Bochum v Hansa Under :) 28.02.04 Sheffield W v Bristol C Over :( 28.02.04 Roosendal v Breda Under :) 29.02.04 Portsmouth v Newcastle Over :( 29.02.04 Lazio v Milan Over :( 29.02.04 Juventus v Ancona Under :( 29.02.04 Amadora v Beira Mar Over :) 29.02.04 Ajaccio v Bordeaux Over :( 29.02.04 Auxerre v PSG Over :( 29.02.04 Konyaspor v Genclerbirligi Under :( Starting Bank 100 Current Bank 116.88 Profit 16.88 Units Staked 192 Yield 8.79% Number of bets 96 Strike Rate 51.0% Average Odds 2.140 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted March 6, 2004 Share Posted March 6, 2004 Re: Friday fixtures 05/03 Lyon v Ajaccio Over 2.05 @ Canbet 05/03 Porto v Belenenses Under 2.20 @ Marathonbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted March 6, 2004 Share Posted March 6, 2004 Re: 06/03 Burnley v Preston Under 2.14 @ Betdaq 06/03 Hansa v Hamburg Over 2.025 @ Pointbet 06/03 Kaiserslautern v Frakfurt Over 2.025 @ Pointbet 07/03 Cottbus v Oberhausen Under 2.08 @ Pinnacle 07/03 Lecce v Siena Over 2.15 @ Canbet 07/03 Wolfsburg v Koln Under 2.22 @ Marathonbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted March 7, 2004 Share Posted March 7, 2004 Re: 07/03 Milan v Sampdoria Over 2.1 @ Pointbet 08/03 Rio Ave v Braga Over 2.1 @ Betdaq Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted March 10, 2004 Share Posted March 10, 2004 Re: 05.03.04 Lyon v Ajaccio Over :) 05.03.04 Porto v Belenenses Under :( 06.03.04 Burnley v Preston Under :) 06.03.04 Hansa v Hamburg Over :) 06.03.04 Kaiserslautern v Frankfurt Over :( 07.03.04 Cottbus v Oberhausen Under :( 07.03.04 Lecce v Siena Over :( 07.03.04 Wolfsburg v Koln Under :) 07.03.04 Milan v Sampdoria Over :) 08.03.04 Rio Ave v Braga Over :( Starting Bank 100 Current Bank 117.95 Profit 17.95 Units Staked 212 Yield 8.47% Number of bets 106 Strike Rate 50.9% Average Odds 2.137 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted March 13, 2004 Share Posted March 13, 2004 Re: 13/03 Sebatspor v Galatasaray Under 2.12 @ Pointbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted March 13, 2004 Share Posted March 13, 2004 Re: 13/03 Fulham v Leeds Over 2.1 @ Pinnacle 14/03 Tottenham v Newcastle Under 2.04 @ Pinnacle 13/03 Preston v Gillingham Under 2.1 @ Pointbet 13/03 Derby v Rotherham Over 2.05 @ Pointbet 13/03 Hansa v Bayern Under 2.2 @ Betfair 14/03 Osnabruck v Greuter Furth Under 2.04 @ Pinnacle 14/03 Juventus v Milan Over 2.1 @ Marathonbet 13/03 Sampdoria v Bologna Over 2.05 @ Canbet 13/03 Ajaccio v Lille Over 2.35 @ Marathonbet 13/03 Porto v Boavista Over 2.04 @ Pinnacle 14/03 Amadora v Rio Ave Over 2.01 @ Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted March 14, 2004 Share Posted March 14, 2004 Re: 14/03 Waalwijk v Willem II Over 2.025 @ Pointbet Found better odds for today's matches: Tottenham v Newcastle 2.06 @ Betdaq Juventus v Milan 2.16 @ Betfair Amadora v Rio Ave 2.075 @ Pointbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted March 17, 2004 Share Posted March 17, 2004 Re: 13.03.04 Sebatspor v Galatasaray Under :( 13.03.04 Fulham v Leeds Over :( 13.03.04 Preston v Gillingham Under :) 13.03.04 Derby v Rotherham Over :( 13.03.04 Hansa v Bayern Under :( 13.03.04 Sampdoria v Bologna Over :) 13.03.04 Ajaccio v Lille Over :) 13.03.04 Porto v Boavista Over :( 14.03.04 Tottenham v Newcastle Under :) 14.03.04 Osnabruck v Greuter Furth Under :) 14.03.04 Juventus v Milan Over :) 14.03.04 Amadora v Rio Ave Over :) 14.03.04 Waalwijk v Willem II Over :( Starting Bank 100 Current Bank 121.62 Profit 21.62 Units Staked 238 Yield 9.16% Number of bets 119 Strike Rate 51.3% Average Odds 2.134 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted March 17, 2004 Share Posted March 17, 2004 Re: 16/03 Rotherham v Sheffield U Over 2.05 @ Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted March 18, 2004 Share Posted March 18, 2004 Re: 17/03 Coventry v Preston Over 2.025 @ Betdaq Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted March 20, 2004 Share Posted March 20, 2004 Re: 19/03 Greuter Furth v Oberhausen Under 2.25 @ Canbet 19/03 Cottbus v Karldruhe Under 2.05 @ Marathonbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted March 20, 2004 Share Posted March 20, 2004 Re: 20/03 Charleroi v Westerlo Over 2.125 @ Pointbet 20/03 Rio Ave v Sporting Over 2.25 @ Pinnacle 20/03 Dundee v Kilmarnock Over 2.04 @ Pinnacle 20/03 Wycombe v QPR Over 2.08 @ Betdaq Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted March 21, 2004 Share Posted March 21, 2004 Re: 21/03 Genclerbirligi v Sebatspor Under 2.2 @ Canbet 21/03 Beira Mar v Benfica Over 2.075 @ Pointbet 22/03 Moreirense v Belenenses Over 2.08 @ Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted March 23, 2004 Share Posted March 23, 2004 Re: better odds 2.27 is available at Betdaq for over in Moreirense v Belenenses game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted March 24, 2004 Share Posted March 24, 2004 Re: 16.03.04 Rotherham v Shefield U Over :( 17.03.04 Coventry v Preston Over :) 19.03.04 Greuter Furth v Oberhausen Under :) 19.03.04 Cottbus v Karlsruhe Under :( 20.03.04 Charleroi v Westerlo Over :) 20.03.04 Rio Ave v Sporting Over :) 20.03.04 Dundee v Kilmarnock Over :) 20.03.04 Wycombe v QPR Over :) 21.03.04 Genclerbirligi v Sebatspor Under :( 21.03.04 Beira Mar v Benfica Over :( 22.03.04 Moreirense v Belenenses Over :( Starting Bank 100 Current Bank 125.16 Profit 25.16 Units Staked 260 Yield 9.68% Number of bets 130 Strike Rate 51.5% Average Odds 2.133 The bank has grown by 25%. So I will use the stake of 2.5pts from now on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted March 24, 2004 Share Posted March 24, 2004 Re: 23/03 Sunderland v Gillingham Over 2.14 @ Betdaq Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Tonyvdb Posted March 24, 2004 Share Posted March 24, 2004 Re: nice work ! So if I got it well, you look at teams who roughly produce 50% over/unders and then pick the selection offering 2,00 +, whether it is over or under. Have you taken into account the fact that eg. in France, more than 60% of all games end under 2,5 goals, while in Germany or England it is more like 50/50 ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted March 25, 2004 Share Posted March 25, 2004 Re: Tnank you for the interest. Yes, the initial idea was to find teams with 50% of overs. The selection rule is very simple and is described in the first post. I plan to change the rule to allow more picks but this is the task for the next season. As for the different ratio of over/unders for different leagues, the simple answer is that it is reflected in the odds. The main difficulty is that bookies with low overrounds (like Pinnacle and Pointbet) tend to offer AH odds like 2 and 2.5 or 2.5 and 3 for such leagues and then I have to go to other bookies with larger overrounds. Now I have strong desire to exclude France, Portugal, Turkey, Belgium ant Holland because of this reason but will try to hold on till the end of the season to get some statitistical data. In fact, behaviour of some German teams gave rise to the idea. They produced well over 2.5 goals on average but the ratio of over/unders was about 50%. It seems that over last 2-3 years German, Belgian and to some extent Dutch teams have been scoring fewer goals and bookies odds stay somewhat behind this change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted March 27, 2004 Share Posted March 27, 2004 Re: 26/03 Burghausen v Cottbus Over 2.1 @ Pointbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted March 27, 2004 Share Posted March 27, 2004 Re: Turkey is out of my system. I've had enough of their early kick-offs and Friday games. I missed several winners because of this, including yesterday's game. On the other hand most bets I managed to place in time were losers. 27/03 Birmingham v Leeds Over 2.125 @ Pointbet 27/03 Kilmarnock v Aberdeen Over 2.05 @ Pointbet 27/03 Sochaux v Metz Over 2.35 @ Canbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vdroplet Posted March 28, 2004 Share Posted March 28, 2004 Re: One final kick from the turks: Genclerbirligi game finished under 2.5. I am happy not to depend on their results anymore. 28/03 Guimaraes v Beira Mar Over 2.2 @ Canbet 28/03 Porto v Moreirense Under 2.15 @ Canbet 28/03 Groningen v Twente Over 2.025 @ Pointbet 28/03 Nurnberg v Unterhaching Under 2.05 @ Marathonbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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