TazaD Posted July 22, 2008 Share Posted July 22, 2008 Geelong still missing Ablett and Ling...and Hawks have a very good recent record v. the Cats. Won the last 3 meetings, 2 as decent size 'dogs...one as about 8.00 'dogs down at Geelong in 2006. Still, Geelong look to have just about everyone covered, and I reckon they'll be hard to beat again. Would have liked the Bombers here, but will quite literally have problems putting a team on the park this week! Fletcher still ??, Welsh only 50/50...Neagle and Monfries both out from last week's team. 'Pies won Rd. 6. meeting easily...no Lucas, but still...can't really see Collingwood dropping this one. Sure, Saints look pretty likely @ West Coast...but 1.15ish!! In 4 interstate trips this season the Saints have av'd 76 ppg and not had more than 25 shots! They also haven't topped 100 in Perth in their last 10 (since 2002) av'ing just 73 ppg...inc. a 75-80 loss as favs v. Freo in 2005. West Coast numbers have been ok at home all season...just -4 I50's per game...they just leak points badly...but not sure Saints can take advantage, esp. with Kosi out. These teams had very similar stats on the Gold Coast v. the Kangas in their 2 games there... ...Like I said, I think the Saints will probably win (won by 23 there last year as big 'dogs), but I think West Coast could definately be worth a look given high 30's! Brisbane/Richmond looks the tip-killer of the round. Looks to be nothing in it. Richmond over-rated off a couple of wins, but against crap teams...were amazingly lucky last week ( )... ...but Brisbane's road form is pretty horible as well. Funnily enough, played a draw at the dome last year...stats almost identical. Brisbane had no Bradshaw, but Richmond had no Simmons... No surprises the odds are pk...coin toss to me! Had Sydney down as a certain bet, but now some injury concerns. O'Loughlan out, Leo Barry out (no real match-up anyway tho here I guess), O'Keefe not 100%... ...although it looks like we might see Big Bad Bazza back! Crows are shot. Av'ing just 70 ppg in their last 5...2 best forwards out...now travel to Sydney where the Swans have allowed more than 23 shots just once in their last 10. Swans won 7 of last 8 at home...loss to Bulldogs who were 1) Flying, and 2) kicked very straight!...lowest win has been by 28, and last 6 wins have been by an av. 64 points! Crows have 3rd fewest I50's in last 4 games (only WC and Melbourne worse), and Swans hold teams to just 40 @ home this season (+15!) Adelaide do have a very good record v. Sydney (which may be another reason for the generous line), but they have been favs in 8 of last 10...different teams altogether now I think. Surprised by Freo's price. Have seen some 2.80! ...v. Port!!..who just won their 2nd home game for the season. Which, is half the problem as well. They had set themselves for last week. It was basically their Grand Final v. Adelaide...let down anyone? Cornes out for the season... Freo definately showing some spirit last week, hammering a pretty bad Melbourne, but Port aren't much better. Port won first meeting @ Freo this season...but Dockers had more shots and +13 I50's!! Lost last year in Rd. 22 @ Port, but last game, and season was well and truly shot... ...won the previous meeting @ Port easily as 3.30 'dogs. They only lost to Adelaide @ AAMI by 17 this season (with more I50's!) when the Crows were flying so the ground is no concern. Freo have only lost 3 of their last 10 by more than 9 points!! The Port game I mentioned, @ Brisbane with just 2 less shots, and @ Geelong where everyone gets pumped! Looks a pretty even game on paper, so tempted by the big price, but wil be on the points for sure. Got no problems with taking the 'Roos to win big either. As mentioned last week, they've had the toughest draw I can remember, yet still doing the job. Won the first meeting of the year by 48...Melbourne av. just 40 I50's and 17 shots in their last 4. This will be just the 4th time all season the Kangas have played a bottom 8 side in Melbourne! (Beat Melbourne by 48 and Richmond by 41) Happy to lay the points in this one. And, I reckon the Dogs/Carlton odds are abuot right. Dogs by around 5 goals. Discuss... :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeMMa Posted July 23, 2008 Share Posted July 23, 2008 Re: AFL Rd. 17. All i gotta say GO PIES :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 23, 2008 Share Posted July 23, 2008 Re: AFL Rd. 17. The Hawks game strikes me as a little like the one between Essendon and the Lions of 2001, with Hawthorn obviously the Lions in this little parallel. They are strong value IMO, as are West Coast. No detailed reasons for you, but prices just feel wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted July 24, 2008 Author Share Posted July 24, 2008 Re: AFL Rd. 17. All i gotta say GO PIES :) Yeah...More of a comment than a discussion piece! ;) ;) :lol But I see on S-P that Ashtee is well and truly on board! Not sure I agree tbh...depending totally on team news before the game, I think I'm leaning towards Essendon +4 goals. Just not sold on the black and white...take out Weeks 9 and 10 and what's left over? A very average team with some very average results. Of course ANZAC Day was a fair indication at the time of where these teams were, but even with the Bombers' huge injury list, this week's team looks to be a whole lot stronger than that day. IN: Lucas, Jetta, Lonergan (been great!) and Peverill, who's been surprisingly good. OUT: Johns, Winderlich, Potata Pears...and hopefully not Fletcher! What has surprised me over the last 4 weeks has been Essendon's defense. 3rd best numbers behind Geelong...and Freo! Also 3rd best forwardline numbers, but I think that's to be expected with the current line-up. Mate, if Collingwood were karmically mugged last week, Essendon were bashed, raped, left for dead, found by Vikings, bashed and raped again, accused of being witches and burnt at the stake...before being quartered. :rollin But, speaking of inferior opposition...what's with these Richmond supporters with too much money?! Opened 1.90 each with Carlton...Blues blew out to 2.50 and won. Opened 1.90 each last week...Bombers out to 2.35 and were dead stiff. Opened 1.90 each this week, and Brisbane are out to 2.30 and beyond...albeit with Power in some doubt. (Fitness test Friday) If Power plays, the wrong team is favoured in a Tiger game once again. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted July 24, 2008 Author Share Posted July 24, 2008 Re: AFL Rd. 17. Scratch most of that... ...Lucas likely out now too. :eek Could be the first forfeit ever?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted July 25, 2008 Author Share Posted July 25, 2008 Re: AFL Rd. 17. Mitchell out and Hodge a big maybe for tonight... Cats anyone... :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BURNTUA CRISP Posted July 25, 2008 Share Posted July 25, 2008 Re: AFL Rd. 17. Last week we had the entree with Geelong playing with the Dogs for three quarters before consuming them in the last quarter. Tonight, we have the main course with 85,000-90,000 at the MCG to see if the Cats can put the Hawks Premiership hopes on hold for another 12 months. Geelong appear invincible and will be out to stamp their authority on the competition by beating the Hawks. Their defence is dominant, their midfield has no equal and their forwards rarely fail in putting a big total on the scoreboard. Losing Ablett, Ling and Wojcinski hasn't hampered them severely due to their depth. The Hawks cannot put a complete midfield unit on the park. With Crawford, Young and possibly Mitchell missing, I don't see the Hawks matching the Cats for four quarters. If it becomes a flogging, hopefully Franklin or Roughead can kick a bag so the night doesn't become a huge flop. Essendon's injury list is crippling and there is no doubt they are playing at least six unfit players against the Pies. Collingwood got a wake up call from the Kangaroos last week and had their top four chances damaged. Collingwood's midfield and forward line looks too strong for a depleted Bombers and should win easily. The Lions are back in Melbourne, and how could you honestly tip them. They leak huge scores at the Dome and up against the Tigers, they lack speed. They have no match up for Richardson whilst Foley and Deledio are growing in stature by the week. Brown and Bradshaw need huge nights for them to win, but the Tigers defence should hold them and claim an important victory. A couple of injuries to key players and the Swans look vulnerable, but the Crows don't have the fire power to upset them. The Crows have a great record at the SCG, but they don't have the personnel to kick a big enough score to worry the Swans. The Bulldogs will want to rebound hard after last week's showing and face the perfect opponent on Sunday. The Blues will let them kick a big score, allow them to run amok in the midfield and allow them to focus their defensive attention on one player. Carlton might hang with them for a half, but the Dogs will show them why they are second on the ladder. St.Kilda and North should win their games and consolidate their position in the top eight. Port v Freo is a raffle and anyones guess. Players missing from best 22's. 2 - Western Bulldogs 3 - Collingwood 4 - Hawthorn, Geelong, Port Adelaide, Carlton 5 - St.Kilda, Richmond, Brisbane, Sydney, Fremantle 6 - Adelaide, Melbourne, North Melbourne 7 - Essendon 8 - West Coast. Predictor. Hawthorn 74 v Geelong 112 Essendon 90 v Collingwood 105 West Coast 70 v St.Kilda 97 Richmond 110 v Brisbane 105 Sydney 101 v Adelaide 74 Port Adelaide 78 v Fremantle 82 Melbourne 75 v North Melbourne 103 W.Bulldogs 117 v Carlton 87 Best Bets. Geelong LINE (-19.5) Sydney MARGIN (1-39) W.Bulldogs LINE (-22.5) I'm off to the MCG to hopefully see a great game and hoping the Premiership race remains open at the end of the night. Have a good weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-Loki- Posted July 25, 2008 Share Posted July 25, 2008 Re: AFL Rd. 17. Game total set @ 197.5. Can the Hawks kick atleast 85 points and Geelong 113. MCG isn't the best of grounds for overs. Don't know about this one. Taz, whats you thoughts on this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeMMa Posted July 25, 2008 Share Posted July 25, 2008 Re: AFL Rd. 17. Go Pies :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted July 25, 2008 Author Share Posted July 25, 2008 Re: AFL Rd. 17. Tough one to get a grip on for me Loki... ...Geelong defensse has just been outstanding in the last 5 weeks, allowing a highest score of 70!! (Av. 59!)...4 of those have been against poor opp, but holding Doggies to 10.10 last week was a solid effort... ...esp. considering Hawthorn are off a 13.11 performance v. St. Kilda. And, Hawks don't tend to collar good sides too often...just 27 shots v. Roos, 14 v. Dogs!, 26 v. Roos, and just 24 last week. Geelong did give up 17.12 to the Roos and of course 20.14 to Collingwood tho...and given they've topped 99 in every game in Victoria besides the 'Pies game, it's kinda tough to take an under with them... ...of course, having said that...their 2 games at the MCG this season are the 2 under 100! Head to head's don't tell us much...would lean ever so slightly towards the under (200.5 @ Centrebet)...but there's every chance Geelong go KaBoom! again... If you think Geelong can kick 113 then I reckon taking them -18 or so is your best bet. :ok (might even have a nibble myself! :unsure) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted July 25, 2008 Author Share Posted July 25, 2008 Re: AFL Rd. 17. Although...interesting to see that Geelong have only topped 190 twice in their last 10 at the MCG...an they had to top 150 both times to do it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted July 25, 2008 Author Share Posted July 25, 2008 Re: AFL Rd. 17. The Lions are back in Melbourne, and how could you honestly tip them. . Not that I have just yet, but to answer your question BC... Despite going 2-2 in the last 4 weeks, the underlying stats are still quite good. (Extremely similar to Richmond's in fact, with very similar opp.) 3 weeks ago Richmond were beaten by Carlton, and last week fell over the line with 3 'extra' men for nearly a half of football. One good week in the last month isn't exactly great...even if it is arguably their best! Lions have struggled on the road, no doubt...but, losses @ Geelong and Doggies is of no real concern, and wins v. Carlton (Dome) and Port... ...again, the Melbourne loss is the bad one of the year, but were 'unlucky' to be about the only team all year to run into a full strength Essendon (ask Kangaroos rd. 1.)...and West Coast. Brisbane worst kicking efficiency in the AFL...but Richmond aren't exactly sure things themselves... ...and if you want to talk 'errors', Brisbane are actually 5th best for the season @ -55 (v. opp) (behind Nth, Geelong, Crows, Dogs), and Richmond are 3rd worst @ +115...nearly 60 more (errors) than the next worst (Freo), and comparable to Carlton (+133) who, of course, Bris have beaten at this venue already this season. Power "99%"...(although a coaches 99%, so 50/50 still I guess!)...still keen on aything upwards of 2.30. :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted July 25, 2008 Share Posted July 25, 2008 Re: AFL Rd. 17. O'why o'why didn't I pull the trigger a couple of weeks ago on Adelaide to miss the eight. :wall http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=_Y35Lewh-LM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted July 25, 2008 Author Share Posted July 25, 2008 Re: AFL Rd. 17. He's alive! :eek LMAO at that...not sure if you're aware (quite probably are!) but that clp has been used in a few sporting contexts over the last year or so...cracks me up every time! :lol Have been looking for a Kangaroos Finals-type prop bet all week (I seriously think they are the second best team in the comp right now! :unsure ) but figure it's probably best just to ride them the rest of the way. Good quarter there for you Hawks backers...besides the almost (I said almost!) comical give up goal with 2 left. [Why didn't Guerra just kick it to Ellis??] Hawks caught in a bind here tho...really don't want to turn it over as the Cats are dismantling their crap D on the rebound...but can't really afford to take the time to be careful... Interesting game so far...(although I notice the Dogs were better placed at this time! :rollin ) Good luck. :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted July 25, 2008 Share Posted July 25, 2008 Re: AFL Rd. 17. Totally choked in LQ :wall Seriously, my mum would have been the best shot in front of goal that quarter :puke. Not a hope in hell of beating Geelong in finals. They (Hawthorn) were totally UP for that. FAF! Can't believe (I really can ;)) the peanuts (in comments) who are too hung up to have a good laugh. Been done before but so it should be done again :clap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted July 26, 2008 Author Share Posted July 26, 2008 Re: AFL Rd. 17. Special thanks to the person I just blatantly stole that off! :D I think that's pretty much how they'll line up...except probably Slattery takes Medhurst, and Peverill/Welsh will go to Pendlebury/Swan. Still can't quite fathom why this team is out to +25.5 (assuming Lucas plays)...every chance for the SU win, imho. Eagles/St. K under 190.5...nearly wasn't going to bother even looking for this total, figured it would be insanely low... :beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted July 26, 2008 Author Share Posted July 26, 2008 Re: AFL Rd. 17. Swans/Crows over 166.5?...Looks a little low. I've got 171 down as the low...just not sure I want to effectively double up on the Swans kicking a score. Still, they have topped this number last 7 at home @ 211!! Reason, because they av. 120 in their last 10 at home. (SCG) Crows defense has been leaky all year on the road, and have gone over this number in 5 of 7... ...the two that missed they kicked 5.17 @ WC, and Brisbane kicked 11.17 at home. Crows allowed over av. 30 shots in their 4...given Swans lifted St. Kilda over this number... :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeMMa Posted July 26, 2008 Share Posted July 26, 2008 Re: AFL Rd. 17. Kangaroos & Dogs surely to win. My Mate goes for Roos My Mate goes for dogs. hrmm... which game to go to lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harke Posted July 30, 2008 Share Posted July 30, 2008 Re: AFL Rd. 17. heye tazad..where's ur post on AFL huh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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