Nottingham 18/07/08

[billy the punter]

2.45 Nottingham Brian Smart 2yo wins over the past few seasons: 2005 6 winners 2006 11 winners 2007 17 winners He has sent out 6 2yo winners already this season. The recent support from Sheikh Rashid Bin Mohammed is the main reason behind this recent improvement. Connections did well with Hellevyn in 2006 and it went from there - since then the yard has produced many decent 2yos for other owners as well. From the 70 2yos he has this season, I'm told Master Rooney is thought to be among the top bracket. That wasn't no big secret obviously as he was sent off 6/5f for his debut. He ran very green before getting the hang of things late - he was beaten less than a length into 2nd, looking like the race would bring him on bundles. I didn't back him that day, 6/5f 2yos aren't my thing, but he definitely went into my notebook as a certain winner of a similar race. The form looks above average for a Hamilton maiden, the winner was beaten only 3l a G3 NTO, the 3rd hasn't been disgraced in better company twice since, and the 4th was a Listed race 3rd at Royal Ascot NTO. The ground was reported to be a little fast for him too on debut, today's easier ground is likely to suit. Should gain compensation here. The best of the rest at the price is John Dunlop's Waahej. Like Master Rooney I think he is over priced. He was 5th in Sri Putra's maiden at Newbury last month. The form is ok and I really don't think there is much form on offer here. Stable's runners always come on for their first run too. Master Rooney 80% of stake currently 2.82 betfair Waahej 20% of stake currently 14.5 betfair I've done what I can at slightly better odds so far but there isn't a great deal of dough about at the minute. 3.50 Nottingham Like many fillies maiden races, this lacks depth. The race hasn't provided any shocks in the past: On the last 7 runnings; Favs have a record of 1217111 2nd favs have a record of 5121222 All races have been won by either the 1st or 2nd fav and they have filled the 1-2 positions 5 times of out 7. The average SP of the winner is just 11/8. And from the 16 runners here only four come from yard's you'd expect to have maiden winners (Stoute, Godolphin, Cecil, and Cumani). I'm not going to look for any surprises here. Henry Cecil has had a runner five times in those seven races mentioned above and he has done ok in the race (41322). He runs Montbretia here and she has always been held in high regard by him. They were confident FTO and she went off joint fav. Apparently she was beaten by greeness and it was reported that she wasn't ready mentally. The form of that debut runs wasn't bad despite her inexperience. She was 4th to Ribblesdale winner Michita. Ran to a similar level of form for her debut this season when a 1.25l 2nd to Clowance. The winner won a Listed race before finishing 4th in the Oaks, the 3rd Miracle Seeker won the Lingfield Oaks Trial (she was a lucky winner, but had she finished 2nd to Look Here it would still be good form), the 4th Classic Remark has won an all-age Listed race and the 5th Elmaleeha won her maiden before running well in the Ribblesdale also. The form is by far and away the best on offer and now that Moonstone got her head in front she looks one of the best maiden fillies in training. I have two concerns, the 3 month lay-off - clearly she has had a mishap or two. And the form of the yard. Although Henry is 2-21 over the past 14 days, so many have ran atrociously. Fancied runners Ancient Lights, Dea Caelestis, Tomintoul Flyer, Marie Louise, Ajaan all tailed off in the past week or so. On the book she is a 1/4 shot in my eyes so the likely price (currently 10/11 on betfair) makes up for those worries. It's likely I'll be taking a chance on her but will be monitoring the betting up to the race - Ancient Lights drifted badly before running poor yesterday. The likely 2nd fav is the Godolphin newcomer - given the form of the Cumani and Stoute look nothing special the debutant would be the danger. If Montbretia is right however, Lura would have to be very decent to win. There maybe some place only angles here too with Lura given the lack of depth.

[Rainbow]

Re: Nottingham 18/07/08 my best bet of the day would be to back athboy auction ew 215 nott. didnt show much last season as a 2 yr old, but back this season and expected to be better at 3yr. gets in off a nice mark of 59 and any improvement should sim him go well at massive odds.