York ~ Saturday 12 July.

[Falbrav]

Advice, tips, questions, etc, etc, in here. :ok

[billy the punter]

Re: York ~ Saturday 12 July. York 2.10 (Class 3) I struggle at York at the best of times and it isn't going to be any easier tomorrow given the heavy ground. Swop is a horse I've backed twice already this year and I plan to have him on my side all year, unless I see a reason not to. His maiden win last season worked out very well (the 2nd now rated 85), so he looked obviously well treated off a mark of 82 FTO this year. He was beaten at short odds but lost nothing in defeat. The 1st, 3rd, and 4th al won NTO or 2nd TO and the 5th has been narrowly beaten on his next two starts. No surprise the Swop won NTO off a 3lb higher mark despite drifting in the betting prior to the race. He looked beat inside the last but battled on well to come out on top - they pulled clear of the 3rd. He was raised 5lb for that win but I still think there is more to come. I'm certain he can win off 90 and I think there could be a big one in him. Obviously the big concern is the heavy ground. He has yet to run a bad race from his three starts and they come on the A/W at Lingfield and Great Leighs, and on good/firm ground at Doncaster. Will he cope with difference in going? Well he is a half-brother to Love Affair whose only success come of good/soft, his dam's only success from three starts was a 10l victory on fibresand and she is a half-sister to May Ball who was a G1 on 'very soft' in France. That is enough for me, this is only a guide granted, but the guide clearly says soft ground will not be a problem. Perhaps he wants soft? Maybe that is why he drifted on fast ground at Donny? I've backed Vainglory on each of his three starts since coming back from Dubai and he has run solidly getting placed each time. He has been a little unlucky I suppose and deserves to get his head in front. I actually think he needs a set of blinds but his sole turf win was on soft so I'll back him small here, even though I have no knowledge of the jockey. His recent 3rd at Epsom worked out well. Winner won the Bunbury Cup, the 6th was a close 3rd in the Royal Hunt Cup and the 7th won a nice race at Newcastle NTO (re-opposes here). Swop 40% of stake win 8 betfair Swop 40% of stake place price tba Vainglory 10% of stake win 20 betfair Vainglory 10% of stake place price tba