Systems and Risk (old Profit/Risk Index)

[Datapunter]

I would like to introduce something new to S&S. ( At least i think its new, i'm sure its been covered by someone else sometime somewhere but as i post this it's a creation of my own ) It's what i call the Profit/Risk Index. In my search for 'a new wind' to blow through S&S, and the whole PL is you whish, i had a look at whats been posted in terms of systems on the PL. Obviously i looked at the systems in the Systems League, both current and past. And i noticed something strange. There are criteria by which to measure the success of a system being Profit and Yield. But i could see no indication of Risk. If you consider Sports Betting an investment, or even simply a long term activity then Risk should be an important factor in your descision making. How do we measure Risk ? Well first of all we need to acknowledge the fact that there are different forms of risk. There is the Risk of going bancrupt, the risk of not making profit, the risk of being dependent on luck, .etc... So i though we could apply a simple formula to get an indication of how risky a systrems is. The formula is simply based on the question : how much money must i Risk to make a given amount of Profit ? The formula is simply Total Amount Staked divided by Number of Bets divided by the Profit made. Or in other words the average amount of money staked to make one unit of profit. First thing to note is that this only tells us something about the past. It only says how much we had to stake to make the profit we made. Its reflection on the future is only as valid as the size of betting record used in the calculation. In other words, the longer the system has been running the more value the Index gives. Second thing to note is that the actual number does not really mean anything. At least not as far as i can tell right now but maybe someone else can come up with something. Thats why i call it an Index. This simply means it identifies a position in a series but does not neccesarily say anything on its own. So its not that an PR Index of 1 is risky or not, it only means that a systems with a PR Index of 1 compared to a system with a PR Index of 0,1 has had to risk 10 times as much to make the same amount of profit. Here's the index for a couple of the systems currently in the League. ( i hope the people who run/ran the systems don't mind... )

[Datapunter]

Re: Introducing the Profit/Risk Index

Owner	Name	S. bank	Staked	Bets	Profit/Loss	Yield	PR Index
*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Mr Intensity	E.M. tennis	100	220	44	47.1	21.41	0.106157
vdroplet	alt.O/U	100	397.5	185	35.62	8.9	0.060321
PompeyPunt	ATWAH	100	720	72	27.35	3.8	0.365631
Bowles 10	Swan 03/04	100	670	141	-15.42	-2.3	-0.30816
*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Da Hannanah	Lucky 7-11	100	345	45	196.1	56.84%	0.039096
Joe	Ski Jumping	100	348	64	74.2	21.32%	0.073282
Joe/Bcrazy	Joe's Draw	100	76	38	13.86	18.24%	0.1443
redchiz	BEWS O/U	100	650	130	112.75	17.35%	0.044346
Bcrazy	Obvious	100	253.27	36	40.78	16.10%	0.172518
DIMB	DIMB 2.0	100	2312	272	23.17	8.52%	0.366854
Da Hannanah	OA Draw Strong	100	218	218	16	7.34%	0.0625
Muppet	Poisson Under	100	183	183	12.47	6.81%	0.080192
Bowles10	Bott.Half Value	100	279	279	6.53	2.34%	0.153139
davidcampbell	O/U Take 2	100	200	123	1	-0.05%	1.626016
OddsAgainst	Home Value	100	634	634	-34.68	-5.47%	-0.02884
Da Hannanah	OA Draw	100	614	614	-37.18	-6.00%	-0.0269
The PL	BOTW	100	175	35	-16.41	-10.76%	-0.30469