Reverse Kelly

[Guest mikkav]

Can you use the Kelly criterion for setting optimum liabilities for laying as you can for backing?. Eg my price= 1.8 Lay price=1.75.Is it possible?

[Datapunter]

Re: Reverse Kelly It may be usefull to flip the Lay price into a Back price and then look at the staking to use. Sometimes when looking at Laying i get very confused but then i turn the odds around into Back odds the picture becomes familiar again. If you have a Lay price of X then the equivalent Back price is: (1/(X-1))+1 When you stake 1 at a Lay price of 1.75 you say i bet the selection will not win. If the selection loses you win the bet and get 1. If the selection wins, you lose the bet and payout 0.75 Apply the formula and you get a price of 2.33. When you stake 0.75 ( same as lay liability ! ) at a Back price of 2.33 you say i bet the selection will lose. If the selection loses you win the bet and get 1. If the selection wins you lose the bet and lose the stake of 0.75. Its exactly the same thing, but sometimes i find it much easier looking at things from a Back point of view than Lay. So if the Lay price is 1.75 and your own price is 1.8 , implying and edge of 0.05 then looking at the reverse you get : 1.75 = 2.33 1.80 = 2.25 implying an edge of 0.08. Use that in the Kelly formula to get a stakesize. This stake then becomes you liability for staking a Lay. Note, i'm not that familiar with Kelly staking so the above may be wrong or not practical. Try it out and see what you get.