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A M trial & Multiple betting


Guest whoneedsrio

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Guest whoneedsrio

First of all an explanation of what the objectives of this thread are and how it came to be. You may have seen in the at the races forum Fenders time-line greyhound threads and the quite heated debate in them. You may also have seen Boytractors 4x4x4x4 multiple posts, if not heres a brief explanation of what this was about. The idea was to produce a winning four horse accumulator by perming four selections from each of four races which gives 256 bets. Only one of these bets can win, but if the odds are good enough a profit can be made, however four winners at 3/1 would give a 255/1 fourtimer which would only recover the outlay on the bet. These posts began in early February and ceased late March with the method showing a loss of just over £600. Each bet was 256 x 10p = £25.60 staked and of the 27 bets only two were winners returning £87.95 in total. There were a couple of bets voided due to meetings being called off because of the weather and in total there were 112 races used. From this 112 the winner had been trapped on 66 occasions from the four selections per race or put another way 59% of the time, note this is winners to races not winners to runners and this is what interests me. The source of these selections is the Adrian Massey web site, a free site which has ratings for each race. Looking at the races BT used to get his selections, from jump racing mainly handicap chases with some handicap hurdles were used and for the all weather the races were mainly all aged handicaps. From both codes the number of runners were mostly between 8 to 12 with a few going a little higher. Once the race had been chosen the top four from the ratings were used in the bets. The races are laid out in rating order so its easy to see what the top four are. There is also an archive of results from 1999 to the present, flat and jumps seperated on a month to month basis in the same format of race in rating order with the finishing positions and odds added. Because the new flat season had just got started I decided to do some research into past performance. I checked the results of May 2003 on the flat, all aged handicaps (3yo+) of 8 to 12 runners to see how many times the winner had appeared in the top four rated. From 42 races the winner was in the top four 24 times (57%). I then looked at the results for May for the other years and working back from 02 to 99 the returns were, 22 from 34 (64%) 24 from 39 (61%) 22 from 40 (55%) and 44 from 72 (61%) the average for the five seasons was 60%. Again working backwards the average SP's were, 3.36/1, 5.03/1, 4.4/1, 6.39/1 and 3.95/1. So what do we have? There is much more work to do but it seems we may have a method which reduces fields of 8 to 12 runner handicaps to a more manageable four, trapping the winner around 60% of the time. With further, say more usual form study these four can be reduced down to provide single bets or two or three per race for multiple betting, it is easier to study a four runner race than one with 8 to 12. The plan then is to live test through May this year to see if this level of around 60% can be maintained whilst checking the other returns in the past results to see how they performed. I now have the returns from June for each of the past five seasons. June 03 had 58 winners from the top four rated from 92 races (63%) again working back from 02 to 99 the returns were, 72 from 99 (73%) 47 from 84 (56%) 49 from 74 (66%) and 61 from 98 (62%) the average for the five seasons was 64%. Again from 03 back the average SP's were, 4.88/1, 5.3/1, 5.28/1, 4.23/1 and 4.37/1. It is interesting to note that despite the sharp rise in qualifing races as the seasons hit full swing the strike rate and average SP's compare very well to Mays returns, indeed both were slightly up. I am now working on July and will post my findings when I have all five seasons. The trial. From the 1st of May I will post the qualifers for each day, work permiting, the race headings on the Massey ratings pages will determine if the race qualifys. The heading must state that it is a 3yo+ handicap and there are 8 to 12 runners. At this stage I am going to ignore races which due to non runners may be reduced to less than 8 or become within the said band from a higher figure. Everything will be included to start with, for example selling and amateur handicaps and races on the aw tracks, these were included in the research results from above, the aim first is to see if the 60% winners to races can be maintained. At the same time I will be looking, time permiting at each race and attempting to further reduce the four qualifers to see if single bets can be made or can they be adapted to some form of multiple betting but not on the same scale as BT's 4x4x4x4 bet. In effect there will be two trials running at the same time. I am also putting together my thoughts on multiple betting and will post them in this thread later. If any of the boys on both sides of the greyhound fence, and you know who you are, or anybody else for that matter would care to climb on board feel free, fire away. Rio.

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Guest boytractor

Multiples Rio, what a very interesting and well researched post. I'm around for a few days before having to dash off again but will add my comments etc. whenever I can. My original 4x4x4x4 was as you correctly state based on top 4 rated of Adrian Massey ratings. The original method I used some 2 years ago - Saturdays only due to the number of races and was strictly based on the following criteria: 1. Maximum of 12 runners 2. ALL selections must have exposed form. 3. The forecast favourite must be one of the top 4 rated 4. Ignore if forecast favourite odds on. 5. No apprentice / amatuer / ladies / hunter chase races. This criteria usually gave an average of 6 qualifying races per day. From these I used the races with the best forecast prices. Following on from the above, I then looked at another possibility which did well for a short period - the top 4 race card number (top weighted) in handicaps with a maximum of 14 runners. To qualify, I would exclude the favourite if 1 of the top 4 and use 5th in the weights as the 4th selection. Before making a final decision on the race, I would check the favourites record for the particular course / race. If this was 25% or less, then it would be a bet - otherwise the race would be ignored. My reasoning was that there was a 75% chance that the favourite would get beaten! I would then bet on the qualifying race(s) either using level stakes or dutching if I had the time using the odds available to determine the stakes. This method pulled up some very nice winners at prices upto 33/1. Having spotted the above, it dented my confidence a bit in blindly following AM ratings method unless the top four rated were primarily 1, 2, 3, or 4 racecard numbers. Following on I now tend to stick to Handicaps if possible for the 4 x 4 x 4 x 4 bet. Also the prices are better. Food for thought for the moment I hope. I personally don't use AM facility to build my own search criteria. This is because I prefer not to back fit and also, as all meetings do not show ratings on the site, I suspect they will be included in the results of the search facility. I do have all published ratings (evening before) for approximately 3 years although I never refer to them. The one thing I am confident in is that Adrian's ratings are a very reliable source to narrow down the field as you have also noticed. You will also find that if you exceed the 12 runner rule, upto 16 runners, the winners is often one of the top 6 rated! Andrew

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