Sandown~05/07/08

[Tedthewolf]

A good looking card. The 2.40 is a cracking wide open handicap. Front running Celtic sultan looks set for another bold show but may be a bit high in the weights to hold on over a mile. Was tempted to lay the fav Fifteen Love for a place at around 6/4 but paying 1st 4 in this so i will give that a miss. UNSHAKABLE goes well here and ran a blinder lto for first run of the year currently 14/1 i will be looking a bit better than to have an e/w bet but my main bet is FLIPANDO which i have backed with PP e/w @ 14's with the money back on the win part if 2nd. Mr Spence is in the plate a better run lto and i think will go very close today.

[billy the punter]

Sandown 05/07/08 A fine card at Sandown and it looks a great days racing. I usually have Friday afternoon/evenings off but felt I needed to get a head start for tomorrow. Just have to have extra :beertomorrow. I think at least half the field in the first have carried my money already this season. Wi Dud is overpriced but I don't think I'll be having a proper bet. 2.40 toteswinger Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) My sort of race. The inclusion of two 3yos at the head of the market confuses things slightly though. Twenty-six 3yo's have run in this over the past ten years and from those; 1 has won 3 have been placed 22 have been unplaced Obviously a 3yo is going to have to be decent to take this, but to be fair Fifteen Love and Masaalek are. Fifteen Love come back to form LTO when winning at Ascot (2lb worse off with Masaalek), he had some great 2yo form (2nd to Rio De La Plata and beat Collection) and was well handicapped on it after running poorly in his previous two starts. They'd need to be bigger in the betting for me to include them though. Jack Junior is no longer the best maiden in training as he finally got his head in front LTO. He ran with credit on his 2nd, 3rd, and 4th start in Group races but was beaten fav after that in a maiden - some unkind things were said about him after that but in fact it turned out to be a fair maiden. He is being campaigned at a more realisitic level here and if he can reproduce some of his form (he can't have been flattered every time after all) then he has a chance. Stable flying, their single figure priced runners so far this month have run 1211621. I backed Gold Sovereign LTO and wrote this:

Gold Sovereign was impressive when winning on his debut at Lingfield in September. He was over 2l clear of Axiom who was well clear of the remainder. Axiom won his maiden and bolted up FTO this year off a mark of 80. He started fav on his 2nd start, a 10f handicap at Newmarket. He ran a fine race to finish 3rd (useful Eradicate and First Buddy behind). I think the race may've come a little quick, his rivals were much more experienced and apparently he didn't handle the dip too well. I backed him I can remember thinking inexperience beat him. The RP suggest that his mark is a little harsh, I'm not so sure I think the mark is fair and coupled with the fact that he has improvement in him, he should make his presence felt this season. I spoke last week about Godolphin's year on year improvement in handicaps and already this year they are 75% (3/4), with the loser given a shocking ride. Over the moon that McEvoy isn't aboard and is without doubt the one in the line up that has the ability to be above this class. I've taken over and around 2/1 about him already, but he is still a backable price.

He bolted up that day and was raised 9lb by the handicapper. Godolphin are now 63% (5/8) for older horse handicaps this year, continuing their year on year improvement in that field. Gold Sovereign has a massive chance of taking the hefty rise in this stride and could be above handicap class. Flipando is a horse I think will go close in a big handicap off his current mark sooner or later. He has the right man (Spencer) on board for his style of running and run well despite not getting the run of the race LTO. Gold Sovereign 40% of stake win 7.4 betfair Gold Sovereign 45% of stake place 2.26 betfair* Jack Junior 7.5% of stake 28 betfair Flipando 7.5% of stake 16 betfair £16.50 F/C Comb £16.50 T/C Comb * estimated price, will amend if need be. 5.05 Emerald Steel Handicap (Class 3) Main Aim and Kalahari Gold won divisions of the same maiden at Salisbury last month and have both been given a mark of 85. The 2nd to Kalahari Gold has come out and won and there were two horses (questionably) rated 85 and 83 out the frame. Both did well to win but I got the impression Main Aim would prove to be the better horse. He was well fancied for his race (5/4 on), the 2nd is now rated 80 and the rating is justified. I feel the handicapper has taken a real chance by giving Main Aim a mark as low as 85. I wouldn't be surprised if Nezami left his form of last time behind and showed the form on his penultimate start - he is overpriced here. Opus Maximus has been a little in and out this year but he can be competitive off this mark and I think he'll be winning again soon. He would've been closer with a run LTO. I think 7f is his trip but this could be a touch warm for him. Main Aim 75% of stake 2.4 betfair Kalahari Gold 15% of stake 8.2 betfair Opus Maximus 10% of stake 17 betfair Main Aim/Kalahari Gold/Opus Maximus/Nezami £8.25 F/C Comb £4.10 T/C Comb 5.35 Sodexo Prestige Handicap (Class 4) Rochefort heads the market at the moment and is well handicapped on his run last year with Kandahar Run. I'm certain he wants a bit of give though and couldn't back him on this ground. I backed Never Ending Tale when he was due to run LTO but the race the remainder of the card was cancelled. I stated my reason then but basically his maiden (4th) FTO worked out ok and he beat a subsequent Listed and other winners when he won 2nd time out. Think he can win more races this season. Irish Mayhem has been disappointing since winning at Yarmouth earlier this season in a race that worked out well (Yadree 2nd, 3rd and 4th won). He was 7th at Newmarket NTO behind Yadree but that race also worked out ok. Only managed 5th LTO at Windsor but wasn't given a great ride from Spencer and wore blinkers (off here). Yard flying as mentioned above. Drum Major doesn't look one of the stable stars but is 11lb better off for a 5l beating by Never Ending Tale so I have to include. Palmerin has been given a chance by the handicapper who has dropped him 9lb this season. He runs off 71 now and has shown he is coming back to form on his last two starts. His 3rd to Capucci over a mile on his penultimate start reads well. Not a definite 10f horse but would have a chance if he can coaxed into staying. Very well handicapped on his 2yo form; beat Huzzah (99) and Judgethemoment (85+) and run close to Kal Barg (94) and Prohibit (97) and Tomintoul Flyer (81+). He could be interesting over a mile NTO if he fails to get home here. Never Ending Tale 35% of stake Irish Mayhem 30% of stake Palmerin 20% of stake Drum Major 15% of stake Four horse combos. Will update prices if poss, I estimate 15/2, 12/1, 20/1, 25/1 respectively. ---- Elsewhere, I backed Multidimensiol, Pipedreamer and Phoenix Tower at Royal Ascot and they all ran fine races. I'd like to see one of them win the Eclipse and I'll probably be backing the latter two. I was amazed Illusion was caught at Ascot when I made her good bet in the Sandringham Handicap. Think she'll give a good account of herself in this level weights Listed race.