A Question for Datapunter

[Guest mikkav]

I've read about you 'moving money' from bookies to exchanges. I was wondering how you do it and whats involved. Many thanks

[Datapunter]

Re: A Question for Datapunter I try to find betting opportunities where the odds form an arbitrage opportunity, or as close as possible. The place where i want to direct the money too is where i place a bet on the favourite, the place where i want to move the money from i bet on the underdog. Hopefully the favourite wins, if not i need to find another opportunity. The arbitrage opportunity could be a bet on both sides but it could also bet a Back and Lay bet. The trick is you need to be patient and attentive for the opportunities to arise, use odds comparison sites or other aids.

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Example in the NFL this week i'm looking at Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts, with the intention to move money from Bowmans bookmakers into betfair. as i'm typing this odds on Betfair and Bowmans are : Betfair Jacksonville Jaguars Back @ 4.8 Lay @ 5.0 Indianapolis Colts Back @ 1.24 Lay @ 1.25 Bowmans Jacksonville Jaguars Back @ 5.0 Indianapolis Colts Back @ 1.19 When looking to back both sides then first thing to do is calculate the Betfair odds AFTER commision so that is 1 + ((odds -1) * 0.95 ) Jacksonville Jaguars Back @ 4.61 Indianapolis Colts Back @ 1.228 If i bet on both outcomes expecting to win on Betfair : Betfair : 100 @ 1.228 = 22.8 Bowmans : 22.8 @ 5.0 = 91.2 ( so if the underdog wins i lose 8.8 ) When the odds move like this : 100 @ 1.228 = 22.8 22.8 @ 5.4 = 100.32 an arbitrage opportunity exists, when betting both sides i will always make a profit, in this case a very small one, but i'm only looking to bet with no risk. If Jacksonville should win then the money will move from Betfair to Bowmans and i have to do it all again with other bets. But i will have lost no money. I could take the odds as they are now and risk losing 8.8% should the 1.228 favourite not win, a risk worth taking when pressed for time. Usually by the start of the match there are plenty opportunities with no more than 2% possible loss.

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An alternative would be to Back at Bowmans and Lay at Betfair. Suppose the odds move as above : Betfair Jacksonville Jaguars Back @ 4.8 Lay @ 5.0 Bowmans Jacksonville Jaguars Back @ 5.4 I can Back the team i expect to lose @ 5.4 and Lay @ 5.0 : Bowmans Back 100 @ 5.4 = 440 profit First to compensate for the Betfair commission i add 5.25% and then lay to that liability Betfair Lay 105.25 @ 5.0 = 421 liability So if Jacksonville should win then i win 440 at Bowmans and lose 421 at Betfair, a profit of 19. But of course i expect jacksonville to lose so i win 100.3 at betfair and lose 100 at Bowmans.

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Works with any kind of market, more possible outcomes gives more work to calculate but thats all. Spreadsheets make life easy. You know when a opportunity exists by calculating the overround. Simply divide 1 by the odds and add toghether : 1 / 1.228 = 0.8143322 1 / 5.4 = 0.1851851 added = 0.9995173 expressed as a percentage gives : 99.95% Anything below 100% is an arbitrage opportunity, the amount above 100% is what you lose when betting both outcomes. In case of odds with a single bookmaker it is his profit margin.