Guest mikkav Posted October 22, 2004 Share Posted October 22, 2004 I've read about you 'moving money' from bookies to exchanges. I was wondering how you do it and whats involved. Many thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted October 22, 2004 Share Posted October 22, 2004 Re: A Question for Datapunter I try to find betting opportunities where the odds form an arbitrage opportunity, or as close as possible. The place where i want to direct the money too is where i place a bet on the favourite, the place where i want to move the money from i bet on the underdog. Hopefully the favourite wins, if not i need to find another opportunity. The arbitrage opportunity could be a bet on both sides but it could also bet a Back and Lay bet. The trick is you need to be patient and attentive for the opportunities to arise, use odds comparison sites or other aids. ----------------------- Example in the NFL this week i'm looking at Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts, with the intention to move money from Bowmans bookmakers into betfair. as i'm typing this odds on Betfair and Bowmans are : Betfair Jacksonville Jaguars Back @ 4.8 Lay @ 5.0 Indianapolis Colts Back @ 1.24 Lay @ 1.25 Bowmans Jacksonville Jaguars Back @ 5.0 Indianapolis Colts Back @ 1.19 When looking to back both sides then first thing to do is calculate the Betfair odds AFTER commision so that is 1 + ((odds -1) * 0.95 ) Jacksonville Jaguars Back @ 4.61 Indianapolis Colts Back @ 1.228 If i bet on both outcomes expecting to win on Betfair : Betfair : 100 @ 1.228 = 22.8 Bowmans : 22.8 @ 5.0 = 91.2 ( so if the underdog wins i lose 8.8 ) When the odds move like this : 100 @ 1.228 = 22.8 22.8 @ 5.4 = 100.32 an arbitrage opportunity exists, when betting both sides i will always make a profit, in this case a very small one, but i'm only looking to bet with no risk. If Jacksonville should win then the money will move from Betfair to Bowmans and i have to do it all again with other bets. But i will have lost no money. I could take the odds as they are now and risk losing 8.8% should the 1.228 favourite not win, a risk worth taking when pressed for time. Usually by the start of the match there are plenty opportunities with no more than 2% possible loss. ----------------------- An alternative would be to Back at Bowmans and Lay at Betfair. Suppose the odds move as above : Betfair Jacksonville Jaguars Back @ 4.8 Lay @ 5.0 Bowmans Jacksonville Jaguars Back @ 5.4 I can Back the team i expect to lose @ 5.4 and Lay @ 5.0 : Bowmans Back 100 @ 5.4 = 440 profit First to compensate for the Betfair commission i add 5.25% and then lay to that liability Betfair Lay 105.25 @ 5.0 = 421 liability So if Jacksonville should win then i win 440 at Bowmans and lose 421 at Betfair, a profit of 19. But of course i expect jacksonville to lose so i win 100.3 at betfair and lose 100 at Bowmans. ----------------------- Works with any kind of market, more possible outcomes gives more work to calculate but thats all. Spreadsheets make life easy. You know when a opportunity exists by calculating the overround. Simply divide 1 by the odds and add toghether : 1 / 1.228 = 0.8143322 1 / 5.4 = 0.1851851 added = 0.9995173 expressed as a percentage gives : 99.95% Anything below 100% is an arbitrage opportunity, the amount above 100% is what you lose when betting both outcomes. In case of odds with a single bookmaker it is his profit margin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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