New way to dutch?

[Gambling Bomber]

Hey there, I had an idea about a new way to dutch that searches for profit that might not be there initially. It is very hard to find over-rounds these days on betfair so this was my thought on how to try and manufacture one artifically. This would require a bot to do due to the calculations on the fly required. Basically you back a random horse and 1 of 2 things will happen. 1) The bot backs Horse A and the price on that horse drops so the bot can make a lay for an easy profit on that race. This is standard and we all know about this. 2) But if the back bet of Horse A sees the price go up this is where I am wondering how a profit might be possible with a fast thinking bot at our disposal. Lets say for ease there are 4 horses in a race. A: 2.5 B: 3 C: 5 D: 10 Now, if we were to dutch all 4 selections for 100 units we would see a loss of 3.23 units. But is there a way we can lock into a back and then recalculate on the fly to get a profit through a dutch even if the market swings against us? Let's say we back horse A at 2.5 but its price swings out to 2.75. If we were looking to lay that selection we are looking down the barrel of a loss on that trade. What I am interested in looking into is the possibility of a dutching method that recognises this and tries to recover a small profit through price movements from this point in... The prices will continue to move in and out so I wonder if the bot could take a snap shot of the odds at the start when the back was laid and then look for increases in prices to help secure an over round even if one does not exist at any set point in time. so we have horse A at 2.5 backed... its price moves out to 2.75 and maybe horses B and C come in a little but horse D moves out somewhat. The bot then locks in that swing out and then waits for B and C to move back out so that a profit can be realised. Basically the idea is to dutch all the horses so that a profit is seen but not in the traditional method of simply seeing an over-round (which never happens anymore on betfair thanks to bots) but instead the bot creates an over-round by taking prices it wants in order to make it that way. So if we see those odds of 2.5, 3, 5, and 10, we know we can't make a dutch profit... but if we took 2.5, were able to then get at some point in the next period of time 3.25, 5.5, and 12... all of a sudden we have a profit from dutching. I am not aware of anyone else doing this but I do realise the method would take some thought and getting the maths right will be tricky but I don't see why this sort of method wouldn't work... The aim would be for the bot to take the easy trades of course but if things went against it then it goes into the 2nd method to try and recover the trade. Let me know what you think of this idea and if you think it has merit or is totally insane. Regards, Dave

[bowles10]

Re: New way to dutch? not sure who we have on here to look into this for you GB, but hopefully someone will pick it up. Thanks for the detailed post. :ok :welcometo the forum & hopefully you will find what you require in this excellent place!