Royal Ascot Fri 20/06/08

[bowles10]

Your analysis / selections in here please

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Royal Ascot Fri 20/06/08 5.30 BINANTI E/W 14/1 Has gone the same route as last year by having a prep run on the saturday where it finished 2nd last year before winning this at 33's must have a hell of a chance of doing the same this year! Looks a really good e/w bet. Would have liked a bit bigger price but beggars can't be choosers as they say and i would guess it will come down in price come near the time. 5.30 SOUTH CAPE E/W 50/1 This horse is a lot better than its duck eggs suggest and i can see this one running a decent race at my kind of price. Trainer had a double on the card last year so imo all his runners may be worth a 2nd look today.

[bowles10]

Re: Royal Ascot Fri 20/06/08 out tomorrow so unable to post, so a few early selections from me: 3.05 Bronze Cannon - Connections decision to bypass the Derby in favour of this race could pay dividends if the horse stays the trip. Conduit won nicely with a well time run at Epsom & was 3rd to Colony 1st time out, Colony won a much weaker race than this today. The one i would go with is the certain stayer Hebridean from O'Briens stable. broke duck after stepping up in distance & then followed it up with a group 3 success. Seems to like any ground also. Henridean 4/1 Ladbrokes 3.45 Race normally favours horses that ran in the 1000 guineas, these include the following from the english version 2nd Spacious 4th Infallible, 5th Nahoodh, 6th Lush lashes, 8th Muthabara. The irish version included 2nd Tuscan Evening, 4th Caribbean sunset, 7th Nahoodh. The french guineas may hold the better form with Halfway to heaven going on to win the irish version. Modern look was 4th in that race & i will side with that over Infallible (Gosden has raised doubts about the ground?) & Spacious who ran well on debut in the guineas but again comes here without a recent run. Modern Look 8/1 Bet365 BOG 5.30 Zaahid done the biz for me at Ascot previously over 7f where it has a record of 1121 since its 3yo days. Drawn low in stall 4 it should give another good account. I just feel the horse is still improving & can take another big prize. Zaahid 5/1 Bet365 BOG

[Trotter]

Re: Royal Ascot Fri 20/06/08 3.45 Coronation Stks There seems little doubt on the form that the Irish Guineas was better than the Newmarket Guineas. Four horses ran in both races and they were all beaten further in Ireland than they were at Newmarket, by 2 lengths, 8 lengths, 9 lengths and 10 lengths (approx). Average them out and the Irish form looks about 7 lengths better than the Newmarket form The french race looks the best of the 3 with Halfway to Heaven finishing 3rd in france and winning in Ireland. If you take the form from Halfway to Heaven, there's not much between Tuscan Evening, Caribbean Sunset and Modern Look with Psalm just behind them..........I expect those 4 to fight out the finish. RP forecast........Modern Look 7/1, Psalm 8/1, Caribbean Sunset 12/1, Tuscan Evening 16/1 I reckon Modern Look to win with a saver on Tuscan Evening EW or back all 4 of them EW...........

[Trotter]

Re: Royal Ascot Fri 20/06/08 2.30 Cuis Ghaire She won the first group race for 2YO in Europe a couple of weeks ago at Naas. She didn't only win........ she slaughtered the field, making all and quickening in the style of a good 'un to pull 4 lengths clear That win would be joint top of the 'most impressive 2YO performances' alongside Art Connoisseur in the Coventry.........well, to me anyway ! Can't see her getting beat............:ok

[JackJarvis]

Re: Royal Ascot Fri 20/06/08 2.30 Ascot - CUIS GHAIRE Very impressive last time out and expected to take this on route to much better things. 11/10 is actually a decent price as his rivals don't appear to be upto much. 3.05 Ascot - BRONZE CANNON Very impressive last time out and previously beaten Doctor Fremantle who then went on to win the Chester Vase. Won easily last time out and although this is a major step up in class, the same can be said for most of them. Take into account, connections were considering a tilt at the Derby so there is no doubt he is a very well regarded sort. Should have no problems will the trip and will be thundering home late in the day. 4.20 Ascot - BUSHMAN Been waiting for this one all week. Slight worry is the quick ground but its hard to ignore him taking into account the ease in which he has won on his last two starts. Takes a massive hike in the weights and in class here but up against mainly exposed sorts and should be there at the finish for Ryan Moore.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Royal Ascot Fri 20/06/08 2.30 Cuis Ghaire 25 pts 11/10 var bog. Seems very short given all the unknowns and bog option useful as could drift a touch but on what she has done, the deservedly unpopular trainers record so far this week, two runners both placed in group races, form in the book by winning group race herself, fancy entries including against colts and also RPR ratings which have this a long way ahead so far I am very tempted to go with this shortish price. 3.05 Bronze Cannon 12.5 pts e.w 9/2 vc. Very tempted to go with both Conduit and this one but plumped for the e.w option with this one instead. Only been running in handicaps so far this season but that only speaks of half the story, beat doctor fremantle no less at hq and a well backed doctor fremantle at that, two of them were clear and then defied hefty rise to win another handicap at hq of which form hasnt been boosted so far but even so this looks a nice sort for an astute trainer who missed out the derby for this race and that can pay dividens here, stoute horse the danger for me, other horse with doctor fremantle form and at a higher level, all the aces, respected. 3.45 Lush Lashes 15/2 sky 12.5 pts e.w Carribean sunset 25 betfa 12.5 pts win 5.3 place 12.5 pts Lush Lashes didnt stay lto at epsom off a brutal pace, she still travelled well enough but just didnt get home for me and her trainer agrees, earlier she showed loads of class at york over the subsequent epsom second when winning with ease over 10.5f. In the actual 1000g she was the most eye catching runner for me. Finished with a real rattle that day in a slowly run and possibly not the most concrete of form race and in another half a furlong may well have won. That is the positive of that race, the negative is that she seemed outpaced earlier on at hq and unable to hold an early position of slowish pace, that is a concern and dropping to a mile today will it be the same today? However I also think lack of experience told that day, it was only here third ever run and some could argue only her 'second' ever run, today she is much more battle hardened possibly to the extent of too much as this is her fourth run in a couple of months. Whatever he early position, I expect she will be finishing strongly, im not sure if infalliable and nahoodh (sprinters?) will be. Carribean sunset is overpriced big time imo, arguably the irish 1000g form is as strong if not stronger than the eng in terms of the way the race was run. She was the unlucky one that day too when carried out by the second who was subsequently relegated spots by her actions, reopposes today. Without that I think she may just have won. Her other form stacks up too. Beat the actual ire. 1000 guineas winner earlier in the season and the eng guineas third in that race and beat the oaks third from john oxx's yard. Behind lush lashes in big sales race last year too iin third. Seems to have escaped teh eyes of a few, from in the book. 4.20 Monte Alto 5/1 var 12.5 pts e.w Buccellati 11/1 var 12.5 pts e.w. Monte Alto was a progressive handicapper last year running in some of the top handicaps last year culminating in a race behind pipedreamer in the cambridgeshire. He looked to have maintained all of that ability and possibly more when third lto and is only raised a pound more, stepping up in grade but looks the type of typical cumani improver to do so. Buccellati is a horse i like and have done well out of it towards the end of last season. frustrating initially last year with a host of 'unlucky' efforts in top races behind the likes of zaham, regal flush, pipedreamer with his hold up and delivered late style. He put that right with three back to back wins, often coming late to win, teh win at don. was very impressive given circumstances, often blocked off but still managed to swoop late and win, showed ability remains lto with good effort in group race that would have him up for this, visor returns today and bold bid expected, probably will be coming late and will need the gaps. 4.55 Captain webb 7/1 var 12.5 pts e.w Stoute horse all the range and whilst I think this trip is fine for him he does seem a bit tricky at times. so going with Johnston's Captain webb. The trainer has a great record in this of late with loads of winners in this rate and had other options for this progressive horse but chose this one which maybe significant. Won a host of handicaps before coming up short at san. when technically well in that day, now that race looks no ordianry handicap with Colony and conduit coming out fo it to win in better races since. He bounced back to form with a galloping win at hamilton in a listed contest after that and whilst teh longer trip is a bit of an unknown, his galloping style suggests it is within his range. 5.30 Zaahid 5/1 boy bog 12.5 pts e.w, Iguazu Falls 13/2 boy bog 12.5 pts e.w and Border music 18/1 bet3 bog 12.5 pts e.w all 5 places which does mean sometimes lightly lesser prices taken but all are bog. Zaahid is a well known horse now and he won the victoria cup lto and did it well, was really well backed too and got his deserved big handicap win after a series of decent efforts. the rise of 6 pounds could be significant but i wouldnt rule out it overcoming that, handles conditions which is very improtant round here and likely to run his race from low draw. Iguazu falls bolted up lto over 7f which was a trip he was needing imo after a series of decent efforts in listed races over a further trip that he never really got for me. Drawn high today, he is actually lower in the weights today and I still think there is improvement at this trip, he is a younger horse, only 3 taking on his elders but if he handles the cavalry charge then he shouldnt be overlooked. Drawn near the godolphin horse is border music who is very interesting for me, an extremely good traveller in his races, absolutely cruising at times and lto was no different when just beaten here. Has run at variety of trips and ideally I would prefer him in the wokingham tomorrow but 7f today and bound to be travelling well at one point. what I would say is that in terms of its a/w rating it is still a bit well in and thats significant for me especially at this tarck, a/w horses do so well over this staright track, mr aviator another the same day.

[fintron]

Re: Royal Ascot Fri 20/06/08 2.30 Not prepared to back the favourite at the price so taking an each way chance on Dandy Nicholls' charge Daisy Moses. Taking a massive leap in class after winning a class 5 race maiden on its debut at Doncaster but its drawn low in stall 2 and the trainer had a 25/1 placed with his only other runner of the meeting. 33/1 EW. 3.05 Bronze Cannon has been in rampant mood in handicap company and must be well thought of by connections as it was entered for the Derby. Woody gives a more convincing case for this one in his post above. 4/1 3.45 Psalm was second to Kitty Matcham (who won a Group 2 after) on her debut and her last run can be ignored when the saddle slipped. With O'Brien in such red hot form its backable at 9/1. 4.20 Emirates Skyline ran well at Epsom recently, winning a heritage handicap on his reappearance and hoping he can provide Godolphin with their first Ascot winner of the meeting with Frankie booked again. 5/1 4.55 Moments Notice 80/1 EW The market suggests this one has no chance whatsoever but it won very easily at Goodwood on its last run and I am a fan of the jockey, George Baker, so having a minimum bet on it here. 5.20 Zaahid (5/1) won over CD last time out in a large field and is well drawn in stall 4. Also backing Celtic Sultan each way here at 28/1. Drawn in 6 which is OK and won a handicap at Warwick earlier this season to show he's still in form. Disappointed at York, latest, off this mark, but hoping for a good run at a backable price.

[TheRat]

Re: Royal Ascot Fri 20/06/08 Right 2.30 - Cuis Ghaire WIN (11/10 Bet 365) Has looked very impressive winning both starts to date, and is 1/1 over the distance and has won on good to firm and good to date, one of these wins was in a Group 3 too when bolted up LTO by 3 and a half lengths. Is a short price but rightly so. Smashes rivals on top speed rating and RPR. A few concerns would be she has only won at one track in Ireland and favourite only won this once. But hold group 1 entries and a lot is thought of her, should be extremely difficult to beat. 5.30 - Border Music EW (20/1 Coral, 4 places at 1/4 odds) and Regal Parade EW (50/1 Bl Sq, 4 places, 1/4 odds) Another slight gamble with 29 going to post but I hope to find a big priced winner here with two that have a chance. Border Music was just touched off here LTO over 6F and steps up today. Has perfomed with credit in big handicaps, although most good running over 7F on AW. Still has some calibre though and can put on a good show here. Has won at Ascot before too. Still seems to be on a winnable mark Regal Parade has 2 wins from 4 over 7F, and does have a big task on his hands here with a bit of weight, but hence the 50/1! I still feel can run well. Won on ground and will need to run a cracker and get a good run.

[billy the punter]

Re: Royal Ascot Fri 20/06/08 King Edward VII Bronze Cannon and Conduit were horses I've had on my side in handicaps so far this season and they always looked like group horses in handicaps. I'm taking over 9/4 the pair coupled - which is value in my book. Coronation Stakes I was probably the only person not impressed with the 1000 Gns winner. After the race I was much more interested in when we'd see Spacious, Infallible, Nahoodh and Muthabarra next. Spacios must go well, Infallible I'm worried about the trip. Will stake to make a small profit in Infallible or Muthabarra wins but Spacious would be the main bet. Wolferton Handicap (Listed) I made Bushman a good thing LTO and he was going to be one of my bets of the week. He was thrown in on his handicap debut so he had a chance of coping with his huge rise. Thought Monte Alto ran a fine race in the Zetland Gold Cup and I wrote quite a bit about him on my thread that day. Murtagh rode him when he won at Newmarket and he looks sure to go well. I'm splitting stakes at 9/2 and 5s.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Royal Ascot Fri 20/06/08 Hope they pull Nahoodh out of the Coronation. Had sore shins after the Lowther last season and did not run again that year. Run poorly on firm ground in Ireland last time, appeared to me to lose it's action. Would've taken a chance on her (at the price) on good-firm going but not now. Ginge

[RussP]

Re: Royal Ascot Fri 20/06/08 4.20 Ascot 14 runners for this Class 1 Listed handicap over 1m2f. Many in with chances but I'm going EW on a double figure priced one in: Halicarnassus (20/1 Coral) - Last years winning stable and this horse has a good chance of making it a double. In form jockey too on a Group class horse. More than capable in this grade off what looks a quite lenient mark. This horse could have easily contested one of the Group races this week but Channon opts for a handicap, off a mark of 108. Is double handed in the race but this one is his best chance in my opinion. First time visor could help and I really expect a good run for my money here at 20's. 5.30 Ascot Massive field for this straight 7f cavalry charge, Class 2. The rail has to be the place so I'm going high on: Racer Forever (25/1 SportingBet) - Top weight but drawn superbly well in 29 of 30. Very well handicapped though off 105 and really expect a massive run if it gets the breaks. Rarely out of the frame in handicaps and was touched off in a big handicap over C&D last term, with 27 runners. Clearly has ability and, on the form book, has the ability to take this. Big weight to carry has inflated its price but cannot be ignored at a huge 25/1.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Royal Ascot Fri 20/06/08 SPACIOUS 3.45 Ascot. 1 point win. Goes on the fast ground which will be important for this race, and with having the form to win he couldbe tough to beat. Spencer doing the steering should get his tactics right and looks sure to go close as plenty of the rivals will struggle to handle the quick ground.

[Rainbow]

Re: Royal Ascot Fri 20/06/08 my best bet of the day would be raymi coya 345 ascot. 0.5 pts ew. needs to improve and i think and i think she can as she has been doing so. trip is good and the ground is also good which will help her and not others. massive odds for this improving type and well worthan each way bet at odds.

[alexmac]

Re: Royal Ascot Fri 20/06/08 Bushman N/R

[RussP]

Re: Royal Ascot Fri 20/06/08

4.20 Ascot 14 runners for this Class 1 Listed handicap over 1m2f. Many in with chances but I'm going EW on a double figure priced one in: Halicarnassus (20/1 Coral) - Last years winning stable and this horse has a good chance of making it a double. In form jockey too on a Group class horse. More than capable in this grade off what looks a quite lenient mark. This horse could have easily contested one of the Group races this week but Channon opts for a handicap, off a mark of 108. Is double handed in the race but this one is his best chance in my opinion. First time visor could help and I really expect a good run for my money here at 20's.

Holland took over from McEvoy here and didn't cover himself with glory. Ok, they went no pace due to 6 NR's but Holland couldn't settle it and still decided to stay at the back of the pack. Had a plum draw close to the rail but, because of the way he rode it, ended up coming widest of all probably running an extra 3 or 4L than the others. Finished well but given miles too much to do and, given a better ride, would have been battling it out with the winner. Not to worry:(

[TheRat]

Re: Royal Ascot Fri 20/06/08

Right 2.30 - Cuis Ghaire WIN (11/10 Bet 365) Has looked very impressive winning both starts to date, and is 1/1 over the distance and has won on good to firm and good to date, one of these wins was in a Group 3 too when bolted up LTO by 3 and a half lengths. Is a short price but rightly so. Smashes rivals on top speed rating and RPR. A few concerns would be she has only won at one track in Ireland and favourite only won this once. But hold group 1 entries and a lot is thought of her, should be extremely difficult to beat. 5.30 - Border Music EW (20/1 Coral, 4 places at 1/4 odds) and Regal Parade EW (50/1 Bl Sq, 4 places, 1/4 odds) Another slight gamble with 29 going to post but I hope to find a big priced winner here with two that have a chance. Border Music was just touched off here LTO over 6F and steps up today. Has perfomed with credit in big handicaps, although most good running over 7F on AW. Still has some calibre though and can put on a good show here. Has won at Ascot before too. Still seems to be on a winnable mark Regal Parade has 2 wins from 4 over 7F, and does have a big task on his hands here with a bit of weight, but hence the 50/1! I still feel can run well. Won on ground and will need to run a cracker and get a good run.

:cow:loon:cheers Plus 7/1 Winner at Redcar. My best ever day betting I think. 4/4 with a 50/1 winner :cow

[mowgli77]

Re: Royal Ascot Fri 20/06/08 Just before the race I noticed it was Dandy Nicholls' horse and he had put some dodgy foreign claimer on it, he's very shrewd (or very bent) in these types of race and nearly always has a massive priced winner, well done Rat, nice price for you on that one. :ok

[alexmac]

Re: Royal Ascot Fri 20/06/08 Awesome work Rat. Keep it up! Patkai was the only winner I found today, but only had 2 bets so just up for the day. Having a good week all things considered. Am going to Ascot tomorrow, so going to do a good few hours research this evening.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Royal Ascot Fri 20/06/08

Just before the race I noticed it was Dandy Nicholls' horse and he had put some dodgy foreign claimer on it' date=' he's very shrewd (or very bent) in these types of race and nearly always has a massive priced winner, well done Rat, nice price for you on that one. :ok[/quote'] Good to see you back flat king ;) How was the holiday? Now where's this 25/1 winner with 100pts on that will win you the competition? :loon

[TheRat]

Re: Royal Ascot Fri 20/06/08 Chers guys. Will keep a keen eye on the attheraces.com comp as I had it 30 pts at 33/1 in that too, not sure what else I picked I must be up there

[mileni4uk]

Re: Royal Ascot Fri 20/06/08

:cow:loon:cheers Plus 7/1 Winner at Redcar. My best ever day betting I think. 4/4 with a 50/1 winner :cow

Yea yea .. please give me a break now .. I've had enough on msn :moon:moon Fantastic tipping :clap:clap

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Royal Ascot Fri 20/06/08 Top stuff Rat. That claimer who won the last is a jockey I have heard quite a lot about. He has impressed reportedly in dubai while doing a lot of work out there and also has been and probably still is asociated with Clive Brittain's yard, could be worth keeping an eye on.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Royal Ascot Fri 20/06/08 :clap Well done The Rat:clap Some cracking big priced winners put up this week. Well Done All:clap