Royal Ascot - June 17th - June 21st

[bowles10]

Ok, we will have daily threads, but please use this until they appear for any information you wish to provide etc Tuesday Kings Stand stakes (5f) Fleeting spirit (Ante 11/4) took my breath away on its debut this year & the older generation will have to pull something out of the bag to beat this one. The other 3yo sprinter Kingsgate Native could well be value at around 9/1. I am only seeing this as a 5 horse race at present with the 2 australian horses involved along with Dandy Man from Godolphin who ran too poor to be true on reappearance. St James Palace stakes 1m Henrythenavigator at 1/2 is madness in a race where the Guineas winner has only won twice in 27 years. Most contest the Derby but nonetheless its a stat that i would be concerned with. Placed horses or worse in the Guineas is a better pointer & Ravens Pass at 10/1 makes good value sense EW for me if the ground rides fast. Wednesday Prince of Wales Stakes (1m 2f) Godolphin has won 4 of last 10 runnings of the race & will be interesting who turns up from thier entries, Duke of Marmalde looks a worthy favourite & personally i wont be looking outside of the top 4 in the betting as 9 of last 10 winners have come from that trend. Royal Hunt Cup (1m) I have already tipped up We'll Come at 14's (now 9's) for the race as opposition to hot fav Bankable (7/4). See the ante post thread for the detail. Docofthebay should run another big race on a track he likes & also Lang Shining wont be far away. Saturday Golden Jubillee stakes (6f) See's Sakhee' secret trying to overcome the challenge of the overseas' horses. the aussies fancy Takeover Target who will have its 2nd run in 4 days after the Kings Stand. From my point of view US Ranger went into the notebook & 8/1 looks a decent ew price. My horses to look for (will be added to): Kingsgate Native 9/1 We'll Come 9/1 Ravens Pass 10/1 US Ranger 8/1 also feel an ew yankee coming on!

[bowles10]

Re: Royal Ascot - June 17th - June 21st Clare Balding has tipped up 2 horses on TV this morning, Phoenix Tower (wednesday prince of Wales Stakes) from Cecil yard & also her brother's horse Dream Eater (in my 10 to follow) on Wednesday, not sure which race.

[alexmac]

Re: Royal Ascot - June 17th - June 21st Have been a bit quiet on the PL lately... mostly because I have been researching for the Royal Meeting. I have come up with a list of about 2/3 'decent' bets for each day. I have been pretty careful here, with so many top quality horses competing it would be very easy to have a huge number of bets. I love the fact that the prices are massive for the Royal meeting, simply because of the quality, and sizes of the fields. Will post up Tuesday's thoughts later...

[welshman443]

Re: Royal Ascot - June 17th - June 21st Stats Guide 14:30 Ascot, 17 Jun 2008 1m Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1) (Str) (Class 1) (4YO plus) Winner £154,698 13 run 2007 Winner: Ramonti Trainer: Saeed Bin Suroor Jockey: Frankie Dettori Age: 5; Weight: 9st 0lb Starting Price: 5/1 Season Form Figures: -2 Best Previous Run: 2nd, Lockinge Stakes (G3) (1m), Newbury Given that, since 1981, more Queen Anne Stakes winners ran in the Lockinge Stakes the previous month than otherwise (14 of 27), it is very hard ‘trial’ to get away from. Although the Lockinge is a Group 1 race, I still say ‘trial’ as many Queen Anne winners were clearly prepping for Royal Ascot at Newbury, in fact, nine of the last 11 Queen Anne winners to run in the Lockinge were beaten at Newbury including Ramonti 12 months ago. This season's first six home in the Lockinge were Creachadoir (1st), Phoenix Tower (2nd), Tariq (3rd), Cesare (4th), Arabian Gleam (5th) and Haradasun (6th). The other race worth considering is the Dubai Duty Free run on the Dubai World Cup card as three of the last nine Queen Anne runners were beaten in that £1.5million event at Nad Al Sheba won this season by Jay Peg. The Lockinge stat is a very strong one but an even stronger statistic is that four-year-olds have won all bar two of the last 16 runnings. Both exceptions were Godolphin-owned five-year-olds in Cape Cross and Ramonti. The last time a horse as old as six was successful was Ardoon over 30 years ago which is a big negative for the Ascot specialist, Cesare. In essence, what we want is a four-year-old that ran in the Lockinge so look twice at Creachadoir, Phoenix Tower, Tariq, Arabian Gleam, Barshiba, Majestic Roi and Astronomer Royal. As far as trainers are concerned, only consider the big boys. Between 1996 and 2004, the Queen Anne was a complete Saeed Bin Suroor and Sir Michael Stoute stitch-up winning all nine contests (six for Goldolphin and three for Stoute) and Godolphin added a seventh success with Ramonti last season just edging out Jeremy for the Stoute camp. Their stranglehold on the race was halted by two more giants of the turf in Andre Fabre and Aidan O'Brien though Bin Suroor and Stoute were both unrepresented in 2005. If you fancy a filly, maybe Darjina, Finsceal Beo, Barshiba or Majestic Roi, I would think again with only Soviet Song making the frame since 1990 and I also wouldn’t stray too far down the betting as 11 of the last 12 winners started in the first four in the betting. That said, the last nine favourites have been turned over which would be against the likely marker leader, Creachadoir, so maybe Tariq, who won at the Royal Meeting last season, can prove the one for this season’s contest particularly following his eye-catching third when not fully tuned up for the Lockinge. Trends summary:

• 14 of the last 16 winners were four-year-olds
• 14 of the last 27 winners ran in the Lockinge Stakes (9 of the last 11 Lockinge runners were beaten at Newbury)
• 11 of the last 12 winners started in the first four in the betting but no winning favourite since 1998
• 3 of the last 9 winners contested the Dubai Duty Free at Nad Al Sheba
• Saaed Bin Suroor and Sir Michael Stoute have won 10 of the last 11 renewals in which one or both has had runners
• Only 1 placed filly since 1990

[welshman443]

Re: Royal Ascot - June 17th - June 21st Stats Guide 15:05 Ascot, 17 Jun 2008 5f King's Stand Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1) (3YO plus) Winner £141,925 2007 Winner: Miss Andretti Trainer: Lee Freedman Jockey: Craig Newitt Age: 6; Weight: 9st 1lb Starting Price: 3/1F Season Form Figures: -111 Best Previous Run: Won Newmarket Handicap, Caulfield (Grade 1) (6f) The first point to make is that the King’s Stand Stakes has been upgraded to a Group 1 contest for the first time this season. I doubt that will have any impact on the class of horse running as all the best 5f sprinters turn up for this anyway. I dare say its elevation was partly introduced to entice more international runners but there is also no doubt it was the strongest 5f race run in Europe last season so is deserving of Group 1 status. The Aussies have won three of the last five runnings (including the 1-3-4 last season) and the evergreen Takeover Target bids for a second victory in the race (winner in 2006 and fourth in 2007) with last season’s third, Magnus, joining him and there was not much between them again when first and second in Singapore last month. Miss Andretti ended a 12-year losing streak for favourites 12 months ago and, it was another filly/mare that last justified favourtism in 1994 when Ian Balding's flying mare Lochsong smashed the opposition. Fillies/mares have actually won five of the last 14 runnings which bodes well for the current ante-post favourite, Fleeting Spirit. Given that six of the last 13 winners have been hard to find starting at 16/1 or bigger this may be a race to chance a couple of outsider to each-way stakes as it would appear luck-in-running plays such an important role as indeed does the draw. The Temple Stakes and the Pris du Gros-Chene have been the best trials. Dealing with the Temple Stakes won in devastating fashion by Fleeting Spirit at its new home of Haydock, five winners of that Group 2 affair since 1990 followed up here (Dayjur, Elbio, Lochsong, Bolshoi & Cassandra Go) so her chance is seriously respected. The Prix du Gros-Chene, a five furlong Group 2 event held at Chantilly on French Derby Day won this season by Marchand D’Or (thought more likely to head for the Golden Jubilee Stakes) is the other key guide. Three top-four finishers (Don't Worry Me (4th), Nuclear Debate (1st) and The Tatling (4th)) in that event have followed up with King's Stand Stakes success in the last 11 seasons so take note of Equiano, Sir Gerry and Captain Gerrard plus last season’s Prix De L’Abbaye winner Benbaun who was hot their heels under a Group 1 penalty which he does not have to carry here. A race to overlook is the Palace House Stakes, won by Captain Gerrard, which has struggled to have a serious impact since Lochsong 14 years ago with all nine winners attempting to double up tasting defeat. Age is not an important factor but three-year-olds having their seasonal debut have performed well with Pivotal (1996) and Dominica (2002) both landing the spoils which could bode well for last season’s Nunthorpe Stakes winner, Kingsgate Native. The three-year-old sprinters look a quality bunch this season with Fleeting Spirit and Captain Gerrard already beating their elders. As you would expect for a competitive Group 2 sprint, pattern-race winners have come to the fore and the last 15 non three-year-old winners had all won a Group race. This will not eliminate many so we are advised to concentrate on horses successful in Group 1 or Group 2 company as they have lifted 13 of the last 19 renewals. Trends summary:

• 13 of the last 19 winners had won a Group 1 or Group 2 race
• 5 Temple Stakes winners have doubled up since 1990
• 5 of the last 14 winners were fillies/mares
• Australian-trained horses have won 3 of the last 5 runnings
• 6 of the last 13 winners started at 16/1+
• 3 of the last 11 winners finished in the first four in the Pris du Gros-Chene

[welshman443]

Re: Royal Ascot - June 17th - June 21st Stats Guide 15:45 Ascot, 17 Jun 2008 1m St James's Palace Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1) (3YO only) Winner £141,925 13 run 2007 Winner: Excellent Art Trainer: Aidan O'Brien Jockey: Jamie Spencer Age: 3; Weight: 9st 0lb Starting Price: 8/1 Season Form Figures: -4 Best Previous Run: 4th, Poul d'Essai Poulains (French 2000 Guineas) (G1) (1m), Longchamp Firstly, oppose any horse that bypassed any version of the 2000 Guineas as the last winner to not contest a Classic beforehand was Dr Fong in 1998. Last season, the St James’s Palace Stakes went the way of the French 2000 Guineas form but the English and Irish 2000 Guineas are the key races to focus on with each being responsible for nine of the last 14 winners. However, it is horses that contested both the Newmarket and Curragh Classics that are most interesting having won eight of the last 14 renewals which is an extremely high strike rate given very few horses will contest all three Group 1 races in such a relatively short space of time so Henrythenavigator and Stubbs Art of the likely contenders fit this profile. Half of those 14 winners finished in the first four in both Classics like the aforementioned pair but a slight negative for Henrythenavigator is that only Rock Of Gibraltar has managed to complete the 2000 Guineas/St James's Palace Stakes double since 1981. As for the French 2000 Guineas, we should respect the winner, Falco, if he lines up as Sendawar and Shamardal both doubled up here but up until last season, horses beaten in that Classic have fared poorly here. Aidan O’Brien is unquestionably the trainer to follow in this race winning four of the last eight renewals. Not only did he supply the 1-2-3 last season but he was also responsible for the runner-up and third two years ago following on from three successes, all of which ran first or second in the Irish 2000 Guineas. Of the home-based powerhouses, amazingly it has been 19 years since Shaadi last gave Sir Michael Stoute a winner in this prestigious race and Godolphin haven’t fared much better with only Shamardal coming out on top despite running six Classic winners. The fillies' equivilent of this race, the Coronation Stakes, may have thrown up some shock results in the last dozen years but don't even think about looking at any horse at a double-figure price for win-only purposes as we have to go back to 1992 when Brief Truce floored Arazi and Rodrigo De Triano (both unplaced) to score at anything above 9/1. On this basis, it may not surprise you to note that eight of the last 14 winners had scored at Group 1 level beforehand. That said, winning form last time out is far from essential with less than half of the last 13 winners striking on their most recent start but, what is important, is that our selection is in some kind of nick as only Zafeen, who ran a shocker in the Irish 2000 Guineas, had failed to make the first four last time out in Group 1 company. Trends summary:

• The 2000 Guineas and Irish 2000 Guineas have each been responsible for 9 of the last 14 winners
• 8 of the last 14 winners ran in both the 2000 Guineas and Irish 2000 Guineas with 6 finishing in the first four in both races
• 8 of the last 14 winners had won a Group 1 race
• Aidan O'Brien has won 4 of the last 8 renewals
• 13 of the last 14 winners finished in the first four in a Group 1 race last time out
• The last 15 winners started at single-figure odds
• Just one 2000 Guineas winner has won since 1981

[welshman443]

Re: Royal Ascot - June 17th - June 21st Stats Guide 16:20 Ascot, 17 Jun 2008 6f Coventry Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (2YO only) Winner £56,770 2007 Winner: Henrythenavigator Trainer: Aidan O'Brien Jockey: Michael Kinane Age: 2; Weight: 9st 1lb Starting Price: 11/4F Season Form Figures: -1 Best Previous Run: Won - Maiden (7f), Gowran Park The brilliant Chief Singer, who went on to win the St James’s Palace Stakes, July Cup and Sussex Stakes, was a surprise winner at 20/1 on his racecourse debut in 1983 but since then, other than the two Aidan O'Brien-trained winning outsiders, all winners going back to 1983 started in the first five in the betting so it pays to follow the market but keep all options open regarding the Coolmore team. Historically a good race for favourite-backers and the market over the last 11 years has continued to be a good guide (four winning favourites) though not as strong as during the late-eighties and early-nineties. Of the last 24 runnings, only Harbour Master won having tasted defeat last time out so all those beaten on their most recent outing can be overlooked. Of course, being a two-year-old race, most horses to the fore in the market will have won last time out, in which case narrow that down to horses with a profile of one run and one win like Henrythenavigator last season. Seven of the last 15 winners had such a profile which is an excellent strike rate considering the vast majority of runners will have run more than once. Interestingly, six of the last eight winners with two runs or more had tasted defeat earlier in the campaign. Irish-trained horses have won six of the last 11 Coventry Stakes renewals with Aidan O'Brien responsible for five of those successes and he is not shy in running what turn out to be his best horses in time as the likes of Henrythenavigator, Rock Of Gibraltar, Landseer and Oratorio took their chance (two of which were beaten) before going on to win nine Group 1 races thus far between them as three-year-olds. Like for many top-class races throughout the season, do not necessarily purely focus on O'Brien's number one string and two of his five Coventry Stakes winners started at 16/1 and 20/1. Trends summary:

• 23 of the last 24 renewals were won by last-time-out winners
• 7 of the last 15 renewals were won by horses that won their sole start (from less than 50% representation)
• 22 of the last 24 winners won by horse in first five in the betting (Aidan O'Brien responsible for other two)
• Aidan O'Brien has won 5 of the last 11 runnings

COVENTRY STAKESYearWinnerTrainerJockeyAge/WtSPRnrsVideo2007HenrythenavigatorAidan O'Brien Michael Kinane 2 9-111/4f132006HellvelynB Smart T E Durcan 2 9-14/1j212005Red ClubsB W HillsM Hills2 8-1211/2142004IcemanJ GosdenK Fallon2 8-125/1j132003Three ValleysR CharltonR Hughes2 8-127/1132002Statue Of LibertyA P O'BrienM Kinane2 8-125/2f162001LandseerA P O'BrienJ Spencer2 8-1220/1202000CD EuropeM ChannonS Drowne2 8-128/1121999FasliyevA P O'BrienM Kinane2 8-1215/8f18 1998Red SeaP ColeT Quinn2 8-126/117 1997Harbour MasterA P O'BrienC Roche2 8-1216/115 1996VerglasK PrendergastW Supple2 8-129/115 1995Royal ApplauseB W HillsW R Swinburn2 8-1213/213 1994Sri PekanP ColeT Quinn2 8-136/116 1993StonehatchP Chapple-HyamJ Reid2 8-13Ev f6 1992PetardiaG WraggW R Swinburn2 8-135/1c12 1991DilumP ColeA Munro2 8-1311/10f14

[welshman443]

Re: Royal Ascot - June 17th - June 21st Stats Guide 16:55 Ascot, 17 Jun 2008 2m 4f Ascot Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) (4YO plus) Winner £37,386 2007 Winner: Full House Trainer: Paul Webber Jockey: Jimmy Fortune Age: 8; Weight: 9st 1lb Starting Price: 20/1 Season Form Figures: -1 Best Previous Run: Won - Goodwood Handicap (2m), Goodwood Full House was an unusual winner 12 months ago striking as an eight-year-old but this really has been a race to stick to four and five-year-olds in more recent years winning 11 of the last 13 runnings. Not only are the majority of four-year-olds open to more improvement than their older rivals but they are also far more likely to be unexposed over extreme staying distances such as this (2m4f) and improve for it. For that reason alone, if asked to nail it down to just one age group, I would zone in on four-year-olds that came out on top two seasons ago filling the first three positions and were also responsible for the second and third that chased home Full House last season. The Ascot Stakes is a strange race as runners in the top echelons of the handicap have defied all conventional logic for a long-distance handicap by virtually monopolising the race. Considering horses carrying less than 9st have been responsible for over 60% of the total runners in the last 13 years, it is surprising that only three lower-weighted horses have been successful in that time period. The best guide has been the Chester Cup and horses placed around that tight track the following month are very much respected having won four of the last 15 renewals and it was Som Tala, Tilt and Double Banded that filled the places this season behind Bulwark. The trainers to watch out for are David Pipe and Tony Martin. Although David Pipe has yet to win the race, he has only held a licence for two years and did not have a runner during the first of those years so we can forgive him that but the Nicholashayne operation must be respected having won this four times in the last 15 years and it's not as if there whole approach has changed. Tony Martin has landed more than his fair share of big handicaps in Britain and this race has been no exception with Barba Papa (2000) and Leg Spinner (2005) taking the spoils and he has had placed runners in the last two runnings to boot. The market been an allright guide, no more than that, with 12 of the last 18 winners starting in the first five in the betting. As for guidance looking at a horse’s most recent run, again nothing strong. That’s didn’t used to be the case however as between 1995-2003 all winners were placed at least last time out but three of the last four winners did not adhere to this statistic. Trends summary:

• 11 of the last 13 winners were aged four or five
• 9 of the last 13 winners carried over 9st
• Placed horses in the Chester Cup have won 4 of the last 15 renewals
• Respect Tony Martin and David Pipe

[welshman443]

Re: Royal Ascot - June 17th - June 21st Stats Guide 17:30 Ascot, 17 Jun 2008 5f Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed) (Class 1) (2YO only) Winner £34,062 2007 Winner: Drawnfromthepast Trainer: Jamie Osborne Jockey: Martin Dwyer Age: 2; Weight: 9st 3lb Starting Price: 9/1 Season Form Figures: -61 Best Previous Run: Won - Median Auction Maiden (6f), Brighton Upgraded from a conditions event to a Listed Race four seasons ago, the Windsor Castle Stakes remains the weakest two-year-old race of Royal Ascot from a quality perspective despite its elevation which contributes to why it is very weak on strong trends. The market is a good guide though. Up until 2006 when Elhamri won at 20/1, the previous 21 winners had started in the first six in the betting and Drawnfromthepast started fourth favourite last season in beating the 50/1 newcomer — Kingsgate Native who went on win the Nunthorpe . Interestingly, the 1995 and 1996 winners Dazzle and Kuantan were also having their first run so debutants have a good record from very few runners. Fillies had a belting record in the mid-late 1990s winning all five runnings between 1996 and 2000 but they have been poorly represented of late and it’s been the colts all the way since the turn of the millennium. You will, however, do well to respect Mick Channon's runners as he has been successful with Kalindi (1999) and Holborn (2003) as well as twice hitting filling the runner-up position as well as Jamie Osborne who has won with Irony (2001) and Drawnfromthepast (2007). Trends summary:

• 22 of the last 23 winners started in the first six in the betting
• Mick Channon has saddled two winners and two runners-up since 1999
• Jamie Osborne has supplied two winners from his only two runners
• Do not dismiss racecourse debutants

[SteveO]

Re: Royal Ascot - June 17th - June 21st Everyone seems to be raving about Coastal Path on Betfair. Impressive last time out but over an extra 1/2 mile and unproven on fast ground I wouldn't be at all confident.

[bowles10]

Re: Royal Ascot - June 17th - June 21st Tuesday 17th June Coventry stakes Art Connoisseur was very impressive at the craven meeting & that race has thrown up a number of winners since. Trainer has elected not to run it in favour of waiting for this race which should pay dividends.

[Trotter]

Re: Royal Ascot - June 17th - June 21st Got my doubts about Haradasun for the opener. He's a dual Group One winner, but one of those was a handicap and the other was a 6 runner affair that he won by a neck. Since then he;s run in 4 Group One, 2 Group Two and a Group Three and been beaten in all of them. The two fillies, Darjina and Finsceal Beo both look top class and both should be suited by returning to a mile after running over further. Bit worried about the 'stats' saying no filly has won for ages and also Darjina having run poorly at Ascot before. Sageburg looks a late developer but turning into a class act. The Ganay form has worked out well and he beat Darjina decisively in the D'Ispahan. His racing style, held up & burst of speed, suggests he should be OK over a mile. Tariq is interesting, looks like an improving colt. Last year he won Listed, group 3, group 2 and started this year finishing one length 3rd in the G1 Lockinge.........traditionally the best 'trial' for the Queen Anne. The first 2 aren't running so he represents the Lockinge form. Won at Royal Ascot last year and was placed as a 2YO. At the moment I'd be looking at Tariq, Sageburg and Finsceal Beo - in that order.

[billy the punter]

Re: Royal Ascot - June 17th - June 21st Think there are at least half a dozen in the Queen Anne that can win. I wouldn't have a bet even with snide money.

[welshman443]

Re: Royal Ascot - June 17th - June 21st coventry-stakes-17th-june-HIMALYA-this colt is well regarded by the trainer who never calls his geese swans and never faces his horses,Noseda won the norfolk with blue dakota in 2004,and the albany withsander camillo,and he would not be easy lured into the coventry if he didnt think he had a serious chance of winning it

[Trotter]

Re: Royal Ascot - June 17th - June 21st Kings Stand Just putting this 'out there' for those who think Fleeting Spirit is nailed on in the Kings Stand........... Our old friend Mordin has been doing some research...........:loon He gave Fleeting Spirit a huge 'speed figure' when she won the temple stakes..........but his research has dug up that........"the 24 fastest five furlong performances by three year old fillies on their seasonal debuts over the last dozen years have all been followed by defeat next time out." He reckons it's 'the bounce'............ I have no opinion on this........just putting it out for information !

[welshman443]

Re: Royal Ascot - June 17th - June 21st very intresting that mate worth looking into seeing i was looking to back the horse

[Trotter]

Re: Royal Ascot - June 17th - June 21st Bit difficult to look beyond Henrythenavigator in the St James, even tho' the 'stats' might be against him. It doesn't look like a very strong field. None of the ones who missed the various Guineas look up to taking a part, except maybe Twice Over. My view is that the French Guineas wasn't that good - the horses that have come out and run since have all disappointed - but that Rio De La Plata will reverse placings with Falco, unless this comes too soon after his run in the Derby From the English and Irish Guineas there doesn't seem to be any reason why Stubbs Art and Ravens Pass should make up 4 or 5 lengths on 'Henry' I'd expect Ravens Pass to finish in front of Stubbs Art this time So........Henrythenavigator followed by Ravens Pass and Twice Over

[JackJarvis]

Re: Royal Ascot - June 17th - June 21st Heard some strong vibes about BUSHMAN... Think its the Thursday or Friday its running... I could be wrong but supposedly a good thing, David Simcocks horse and has won pulling a cart past few runs.

[TheRat]

Re: Royal Ascot - June 17th - June 21st Anyone know what the going is likely to be tomorrow Had glancing through the card now before I go into it tonight, Fleeting Spirit and Takeover Target clearly fave and second fave but I can't help thinking Captain Gerrard is a big price

[bowles10]

Re: Royal Ascot - June 17th - June 21st Not sure how much it will get into the ground but its pissing down & I am about 8 miles from Ascot. Been on the cards for some time with dark clouds & been coming down for an hour so far. Looks bright enough to stop soon so dont think it will have too much impact but may just take the speed out of the track.

[pete10]

Re: Royal Ascot - June 17th - June 21st Strange that Bowles its as dry as you like here in Earley , Must be on its way :wall

[TheRat]

Re: Royal Ascot - June 17th - June 21st We had a bit of a storm here too just So if you had to guess, good to soft, or....?!

[bowles10]

Re: Royal Ascot - June 17th - June 21st Good at worst Unless it goes through the night

[bowles10]

Re: Royal Ascot - June 17th - June 21st

Strange that Bowles its as dry as you like here in Earley , Must be on its way :wall

sunny at windsor also, must have missed you lot, the other side of the M3 is soaked!

[alexmac]

Re: Royal Ascot - June 17th - June 21st Says they are going to water the track tonight to ensure it stays good to firm.... Havnt had any rain here all day, 15 minutes from Ascot.

[alexmac]

Re: Royal Ascot - June 17th - June 21st 2.30 - SAGEBURG 4 year olds dominate this race, with 19 of the last 23 winners being 4 year olds. Of the 4 year olds in the field I very much like the look of SAGEBURG. There are one or two questions over the trip, but looks to be the versatile type. The ground shouldnt be too much of a problem, although untested on ground of good to firm I do not think the track will be riding particularly fast tomorrow. The course are said to be watering tonight to ensure the ground does not get too firm. SAGEBURG has previously shown a tremendous turn of foot in beating Liberate, who reopposes tomorrow. Clearly, this is a top class field, and the are any number of dangers in the line up. Cesare is a very consistent type, but the age trends go strongly against him tomorrow. I would like to think that the forecasted price of 5/1 is an excellent value E/W bet on SAGEBURG, who could well take all the beating in a pretty hot looking opener.

[alexmac]

Re: Royal Ascot - June 17th - June 21st 4.20 - ART CONNOISSEUR Upped in trip since his back to back successes over 5f in April. Could have been targeted to any number of races since then, but has been kept at home in preparation for a crack at this. The latest race at Newmarket has not quite worked out as well as it had been hoped for, but he looked very much like the type who would handle the Ascot track and the extra furlong on that appearance. The latest victory came from a poor draw, but he showed enough early pace to find a decent racing position, then quickened very well indeed when Spencer asked him to. The tissue price of 8/1 looks generous, and although the favourites have a VERY good record in the race, Art Connoisseur looks to be an excellent value E/W bet.

[alexmac]

Re: Royal Ascot - June 17th - June 21st 4.55 - MAMLOOK The first handicap on the card can go the way of the Pipe stable IMO, with MAMLOOK looking to have an excellent chance here. 4 year olds have an excellent record in the race, with them accounting for 7 of the last 10 winners. Mamlook has been off the track for a few months in preparation for this race, and he looks the ideal type to go very close here. The race looks wide open, with Bukit Tinggi and Liberate both looking lik strong challengers. But at a price of around 10/1, Mamlook could be the one to side with.

[bowles10]

Re: Royal Ascot - June 17th - June 21st I agree on Art Connoissuer alex, i have been excited at the prospect of this coming out since the newmarket win in April. Hoping the low draw will help as it will get the rail throughout although they sometimes come down the middle in the 2yo races, i'd still want to be drawn on the low side.

[TheRat]

Re: Royal Ascot - June 17th - June 21st

I agree on Art Connoissuer alex, i have been excited at the prospect of this coming out since the newmarket win in April. Hoping the low draw will help as it will get the rail throughout although they sometimes come down the middle in the 2yo races, i'd still want to be drawn on the low side.

Yes, I have this on my to follow updates, yet to look into the race in great depth, but could be a bet for me for the first time in a while I'm gonna study the card tonight properly and see how I do after a long lay off!