Ayr 29/05/08

[billy the punter]

Playing in just the one race: 3.20 Ayr When Lady Valentino was handicapped in August after her maiden runs I thought the handicapper had made a mistake, due to the following; Run 1: 4th of 9 - outpaced but finished strongly over 6f beaten 5.5l Winner Northern Dare won off 63 and 69 in July. (Now a solid mid-high 80s horse) The 2nd Soccerjackpot bolted up in a maiden before running close of 77 and 82 in Class 3/2 handicaps in June/July. Run 2: 8th of 8 - always in rear over 7f beaten 12l. Something clearly amiss and not seen for over two months. Run 3: 4th of 14 - ran on from the rear ago over 7f beaten 2l. The winner Kunteh Kinteh was already rated 65 and went close off that mark NTO. The 2nd was rated 52 at the time. The 3rd was rated 60 at the time. When she lined up in a handicap (7f) on the first on August last year I thought she was very well treated off a mark of 50. If it wasn't for the middle run then surely she would've been given a mark at least 7lb higher. However due to the break after that poor run I presumed there was an injury and decided to ignore it. However she was a double figure price, a lot bigger on betfair and with Patrick Mathers booked I wasn't sure if that was going to be her day. I still played, albeit small and she ran well in 5th (of 15). She was dropped a lb for her next start (7f) and I lumped on. She went down in a photo at 14/1 (clear of the 3rd and winner won NTO). After the race I was gutted but was certain I was right about her being well handicapped. I went in again on her final start (1m) last year and she was again beaten by a neck. She did little wrong in those three runs, was perhaps just a little unlucky. I didn't back her FTO this season as she was 6lb out the handicap and trying 1m2f for the first time. She ran a fine race to be 3rd to Karmest. I fancied Karmest on Monday but he was virtually pulled up at Chepstow, the 2nd however has won on it's next two starts. Being out the handicap she ran off 56 here, perhaps proving that I was correct about her being well handicapped off 50, in theory at least. She runs off her correct mark (50) here and must have a chance in a weak race (currently 12 bar three on betfair). There are some modest horses in this field, the average price her 12 opponents went off LTO was 22/1! :loon It must be mentioned though that this is a Class 6 handicap and she is a Class 6 handicapper that is still a maiden. I'm still having a decent bet on her but won't be staking as much as I do on the bets on my thread. Like I said yestreday regarding Navene; "if she can be trusted she'll surely win soon". Same thing here, although Lady Valentino has run some gallant races in defeat and there is no evidence she isn't genuine. Dod's finally puts his fav jockey on, Philip Makin (who I think is very under rated), for the first time since her maiden races. Currently over 7/2 on betfair, there could be an agrument for making her an E/W bet - all lies on the market. If all is well then she has to go very close I would imagine.

[bathaz]

Re: Ayr 29/05/08 Was about to come and write about lady valentino, decided against it! Billy has summed it up, im sure my summary would have been just as good but ill let him have this one lol