AFL Rd. 9.

[TazaD]

Collingwood +30ish anybody?? Geelong just travelling along...I don't rate the Pies one little bit, but it does look like a lot of points. They got within 16 and 5 in both games last year...safe to say neither team is playing as well now, but still... Geelong 8-0, but 3 wins by more than 5 goals...Ess hardly count, Sydney were in the game for all but 15 minutes, and St. Kilda held them everywhere but the score. I know Collingwood haven't beaten a team in the 8 yet (only played 2!!), but they do seem to lift for big games...6-4 in Friday Night games since late 2006, no losses by more than 20 (although favs in most admittedly). Maybe Geelong 1-40 is best option, but I never have much luck with those type of bets...:\ Would have liked Freo with a few points...should be a close one...either team under 15.5? Freo have 5 games of 8 finish close, and a 17 point loss at Adelaide to boot...but almost impossible to take them to win given a total case of choke-itis. Carlton are still Carlton deep down tho too...wins over the bottom 2, and a lucky win over Collingwood, who aren't much good themselves. I think Port might sneak home, but hardly 1.55 shots. Chad likely back, although S. Burgoine very likely out...Kenelly out for Swans tho aswell. Sydney could not be any more different home/away...av just 42 I50's on the road this season, and play a much more negative style of game. Port have had more than 50 I50's just once, and av. just 46 at home...but hold teams to 45 at home. Forget last game at Sydney...this will be totally diferent. Will be looking at an under, and I reckon I'll get a decent number. Neither team in any great form to speak of...beaten some poor teams both... Will tip Port, bit of a toss up tho... Tiges as 1.40 favs?!...Will take it thanks! :lol Sure, they're rubbish, but Essendon are far worse! Allowing 140+ ppg in their last 5 and just don't look like putting any pressure on. Richmond have been facussing on playing "tough"...have 2nd most contested possessions in the last 4 games...the exact style that will give Essendon very little chance...not to mention they've played the 3 undefeated teams in that 4 weeks!! :eek Tigers won by 27 as 2.75 'dogs in Rd. 21 last year...bit tough to figure out a kind of margin they could win by, but pretty happy the 1.40 on offer for the win. West Coast/Crows could be closer than most think too. Adelaide defense has been terrible away from home, allowing a shot every 1.69 entries. Much improved effort by the Eagles this weekend, 55-51 I50's but just fell short. Will be looking for an over, and suspect I'll get a reasonable line. Crows still far the better team, but think 1.30ish is a bit short. Was very surpised to see Brisbane @ 1.25 too! Every chance I'll be on the Saints +25 or so. The Lion s midfield has been great in the last month...+10 is 3rd best behind Geelong and Hawthorn, but they are still very leaky defensively. On the other hand, I think the Saints' D will be able to keep this one close...allowing a shot every 2.10 entries in their last 4, and only Geelong and the Doggies have been below 2.00 all season! Only Geelong and Sydney have numbers better than 2.00 fr the season, and both have beaten Brisbane reasonably well, holding them to 23 and 21 shots. I guess the question is whether St. K. can score enough themselves, with just 16, 25, 24 shots in their last 3...but Brisbane gave up 32 to a pretty poor Carlton @ 1.56 this week and have been 1.65 in the last 4. Brisbane have had a funny old schedule really...beaten some crap teams Melbourne/Carlton...got a bit lucky it rained v. Port...lost to 3 good teams (Syd, Geelong, Hawthorn)...one game at home v. a middle of the road team was a 2 point win v. Collingwood with 12 LESS I50's, and a conversion rate that will be tough to repeat v. the Saints. Every chance Melbourne/Hawthorn turns out like it did 7 weeks ago. Will be after a total ;) Dogs are a far better unit than the Kangas, and will be taking -14.5 or better. Dogs weere a bit down this week, but still ended up with 3 more shots from 2 more entries. Kangas have had a horror last month really...beat Collingwood but had -11 entries, drew with Sydney with 5 less shots, 13 less shots v. Adelaide in what should have been a BIG loss, and pretty much outplayed by the Eagles, but snuck home with 4 less entries. Back in the Dome this week, the Doggies continue their run. :beer

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 9. Cox a nice return to form but last week was mostly about North IMO. A number of players down on confidence and single handedly dragged off the mat by Simpson with help from a couple other senior players. A shower or two possible (as if!) but the 22.5 looks easily touchable by Adelaide who never seem to have an off day. Saints away from their Dome but I'm contemplating the 26.5 also. Would it be worth them reverting to their heavy flooding game this week? I'm already set with the Melb/Haw game. Just the one team to back in this. Layed a nice piece of the 1.06 Betfair for a price of 16.83 Melbourne. Am thinking about pies & roos but still toying with the likelihood of them lifting the form.