Salisbury 15/05/08

[billy the punter]

1.50 Salisbury Arthur's Girl went into my notebook after her debut run at Lingfield over 6f in October. Although it wasn't a great maiden, the fact that she got close to the winner shouldn't be ignored. She is by Hernando out of a Caerleon mare, so has bundles of stamina on both sides of the family and a Ribblesdale entry cements the belief that she is a middle distance filly. Her debut was over 6f however, a trip too short obviously, she was slowly away and outpaced but ran on to finish 5th beaten just 2.5l. I think I wrote similar to the above when I selected her LTO, in a 10f fillies maiden at Newbury. That suited more obviously and she finished 3rd of 9 runners. The winner Burn The Breeze ran ok at Chester (3rd off 82) and is well thought of my Henry Cecil, the 2nd Clearing Skies finished a closing 3rd in the Cheshire Oaks, 2l behind Sail. They pulled nearly 3l lengths clear of the 4th, Dolly Penrose, who did the form no harm either NTO, she finished 3rd in a maiden despite unseating her rider and running loose before the race. Arthur's Girl was easy to back in the above race. She was almost double her early bird price on betfair throughout the day and drifted 5/1 to 7/1 on-course. Perhaps was expected to come on for the run. That hasn't been the case today though. I noticed last night that she was a 12/1 shot in the Racing Post forecast - that was a joke price so I had an eye on the market for most of the night hoping that some layers would foolishly price her up following this tissue. Well I didn't do bad, I managed to get an ok amount on at average odds of 9.8. When I woke up today she was as short as 3/1 with the bookmakers and only 5.2 on betfair. More importanly she has held her price, she is best priced 7/2 but is 4.9 on betfair, a lot different to her last run. This isn't an after-time with regards to price, as I still think she is a bet at the price. I believe she is a genuine 7/2 shot here. My main worry is the ground, good/firm (firm in places) - was hoping the forcast showers would come to take the jar out the ground. The betting revolves around three horses (11 bar three/22 bar four on betfair) and the other two come from stables that do very well here; Godolphin (Siyasa who was odd-on for her debut 7th) and Stoute (Quotation entered in the Oaks). Stoute especially likes this race, winning six of the last ten runnings (+2 placed efforts).

[billy the punter]

Re: Salisbury 15/05/08

Stoute has three in this by the way. His other runner with a chance looks to be Selsey who finished 9th in a fair maiden at two. And JPG has a 31% S/R on 3yos for the yard over the past five season. Perhaps I was too quick to narrow this two the three and have had a saver at 17 on betfair. Two handed in this now for me, Arthur's Girl and small saver on Selsey.