Ascot 10/05/08

[alexmac]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08 BTP, unlucky mate. King of Dixie would have been a runaway winner if he hadn't bolted in the stalls.

[bowles10]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08

Can't believe my two both lost the race at the start. Unreal luck.

i took your advice on king of dixie also mate as a saver, & had a r/fc with Zaahid so i was shouting it home also unlucky with Laa rayb trying to break the stalls.

[alexmac]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08 Still cannot get over the price that was available this morning! That has made my day that has.

[billy the punter]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08 Yeah we were unlucky with the cast too. I nearly had a saver on the winner as I put it in the T/C bet and backed it on both it's starts this year. Still, better to lose like that I suppose, than then being tailed off. :ok

[bowles10]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08

Still cannot get over the price that was available this morning! That has made my day that has.

when i posted last night, i never expected to be that price as i stated. The Rat advised Laddies were offering 14's last night but i still left it to this morning to get on. Backed it e/w anyway & lost a few valuable points in the bet of the day thread to be honest.

[christo85efc]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08 Nice one to all those who tipped Zaahib, got on earlier this afternoon @ 10's, but 14's is unbelievable :clap Well done guys :ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08 3.20 - Calculating E/W Has been very consistent this winter with plenty of placed efforts and wins. Went up in the weights for latest success, but the 5lbs claimer will help and looks a value bet at 16/1. Can spring a surprise today.

[BillyHills]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08 Well done to Bowles and Alex, good spot guys!:clap Every race on the flat seems to have bad luck stories too just lately, seems you have to win twice to collect, in running and at the lollipop.

[billy the punter]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08

Well done to Bowles and Alex, good spot guys!:clap Every race on the flat seems to have bad luck stories too just lately, seems you have to win twice to collect, in running and at the lollipop.

I know what you're saying BH, but poor luck in running I can handle. Especially at Chester, you know to expect it if you're not a front runner. But the two I backed at Ascot is a bit of a freak of nature. Rearing in the stalls badly and the other one was apparently down to Winston standing on the stalls to keep the weight off the horse. He wasn't looking and didn't realise they were all in. When the gates opened he wasn't on board. That's to be confirmed though, I want to check it for myself.

[billy the punter]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08 I didn't notice you tipped it alex at first, nice one mate.

[TheRat]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08 Well done Bowles and Alex, Can't believe it myself. I nearly ALWAYS post up the night before, was tired last ngiht, so alhough I looked at the cards didn't type anything although I fancied the horse as I put at the start of the thread. cause I was so tired I slep in and missed it! :wall Congrats though guys, and RIP Ivy Creek, sad news

[billy the punter]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08 Should've been 3/3 today but didn't get the breaks - that's racing. 3.55 Ascot (Class 3) No time here so no real write-up, but you know I'll have good reasoning behind these. Backed Esteemed Machine LTO, think there is more to come, closely matched with Jimmy Styles last year and his yard are flying. Rainbow Mirage ran some decent races last season, as did Dazed And Amazed, both are well handicapped on pieces of form. 6f a worry for the latter though. Esteemed Machine 40% of stake 5 betfair Jimmy Styles 40% of stake 5 betfair Rainbow Mirage 10% of stake 16 betfair Dazed And Amazed 10% of stake 10 betfair

[Trotter]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08

3.55 Got a short list of 4 - Dazed and Amazed, Jimmy Styles, Southandwest, Rainbow Mirage The only one of them that has won a handicap before is Jimmy Styles, but he got shoved up 11 lbs for that and was well beaten off his new mark. Only down 1 lb today, so will need a career best first time out this season. Dazed and Amazed is getting to be well handicapped, but he seems like an in and out performer. Probably over-rated by virtue of an AW Listed win after which his rating went up into the 100s. Gradually falling, could just about be on a fair mark now, but you'd want to see him put in a good run. Hope it's not today !! Southandwest started in handicaps off 88 and was narrowly beaten, so 85 seems fair. Been up and down between 5, 6 and 7 furlongs but 6F seems his best trip. Had a run this season. Good EW chance Rainbow Mirage similarly started in the high 80s and has come down to 84. He probably still needs to improve a little bit to win off 84 but has conditions to suit, is lightly raced and has had a run this season. Another good EW shot. Two EW selections - Southandwest and Rainbow Mirage.

Grrrrrrrrrrrrrr I was doing really well with my sprint handicap form study, but the last 4 selections have all gone down...........:eek It's my longest losing run.................:loon Gonna stick with it though................:)

[stewartd14]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08

Grrrrrrrrrrrrrr I was doing really well with my sprint handicap form study, but the last 4 selections have all gone down...........:eek It's my longest losing run.................:loon Gonna stick with it though................:)

Thats unlucky mate. You had the winner in your shortlist so the signs are there. Some of these races can be so tricky to predict, so losing runs are normal. Dont get downhearted over it, and keep the faith. :ok

[stewartd14]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08 Brilliant stuff those on Zaahid. Backed it 1st 2 runs this season, but had a feeling the step down in trip wouldnt suit after he got outpaced at a crucial stage LTO. However, the different tactics worked a treat today and he repaid those that kept the faith. :clap:clap Cant believe King Of Dixie though. :sad

[stewartd14]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08

Ascot 3.20 (Class 3) I nearly backed Silver Suitor on Sunday but decided to watch as he was FTO. He travelled very well and was hampered late on. Most will say he was unlucky although I'm not sure he would've won. It was still a great run and I think it would've been only fitness that beat him. I would back him to reverse the form with those front two now. He has gone up slightly but still looks ahead of the handicapper, he travels like a class horse and is expected to be better than handicap class in the future. Entered in the Ascot Gold Cup so there could be even further improvement to come over this trip. Sure to win off this mark today or very soon Plane Painter may fair better with the run under him. Hue was given a shocking ride LTO, 7lb higher for that run though, you don't usually see that for a 3rd, but thats how bad the ride was - and the form has worked out well too. Stable went close in the Chester Cup. Silver Suitor 100% of stake 2.48

At least this one won for you mate. :clap:clap

[billy the punter]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08 Ta mate, I did have three winners at Ascot, but 4/4 would've been better obviously. ;) Like I said before, if I get beat, then I WANT to be unlucky, regardless of what I say at the heat of the moment.

[Trotter]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08

Thats unlucky mate. You had the winner in your shortlist so the signs are there. Some of these races can be so tricky to predict, so losing runs are normal. Dont get downhearted over it, and keep the faith. :ok

Cheers !..........and i have learned something from todays disappointing result.........the first 3 home were all on seasonal debut, and I tend to downgrade their chances if they haven't had a run yet.......... Perhaps I'll have to rethink that one.......I'm not sure how logical it is, but that might be a debate for a new thread !

[billy the punter]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08

Cheers !..........and i have learned something from todays disappointing result.........the first 3 home were all on seasonal debut, and I tend to downgrade their chances if they haven't had a run yet.......... Perhaps I'll have to rethink that one.......I'm not sure how logical it is, but that might be a debate for a new thread !

Thing is, there is no logic when it comes to FTO, not really. Educated guess, yes. Every horse is different. Some go well fresh but that is a guide only, as are looks and stable form. There is no guarantee of being 100% certain that a horse is fully fit. Personaly I just hope that if I see something in a horse for a certain race, then perhaps the trainer has to, and maybe the horse will be spot on for said race. I think the fitness issues come into play more in the lower grades. Most are spot on for the bigge prize money handicaps, which stands to reason. That why they are a far better betting proposition.

[alexmac]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08 Did you find out what happened to Laa Rayb Billy?

[Trotter]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08

Thing is, there is no logic when it comes to FTO, not really. Educated guess, yes. Every horse is different. Some go well fresh but that is a guide only, as are looks and stable form. There is no guarantee of being 100% certain that a horse is fully fit. Personaly I just hope that if I see something in a horse for a certain race, then perhaps the trainer has to, and maybe the horse will be spot on for said race. I think the fitness issues come into play more in the lower grades. Most are spot on for the bigge prize money handicaps, which stands to reason. That why they are a far better betting proposition.

I have a thought on the matter bouncing around in my head.........:lol ........the 'pundits' always say 'should come on for the run' 'might just need this' and other clichés........but when you think about it, a sprint race is a minute or 70 seconds of running. When a horse is being professionally trained seven days a week is a minute's running really going to make any difference ? They must run flat out for a minute every day at home..............;)

[billy the punter]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08

Did you find out what happened to Laa Rayb Billy?

My sky+ isn't working so it didn't record today's racing, so I cannot confirm what I though may've happend. The RP write-up is rubbish, says there were no hard luck stories in the race. :lol Don't give up the day job.

[billy the punter]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08

I have a thought on the matter bouncing around in my head.........:lol ........the 'pundits' always say 'should come on for the run' 'might just need this' and other clichés........but when you think about it, a sprint race is a minute or 70 seconds of running. When a horse is being professionally trained seven days a week is a minute's running really going to make any difference ? They must run flat out for a minute every day at home..............;)

Thing is they don't run a race at home, it's just work. Wouldn't usually be the distance of the race, especially if they are a middle distance horse. And a gallop doesn't have the hustle and bustle or pace of a race either. So a race can bring them on, it all depends how fit there are. If a horse is 100% fit for the race then it's hardly going to come on at all for the 2nd run. But if they're not 100%, then the race, like a strong piece of work, will put them spot on. Prime example Silver Suitor, to me last Sunday, it screamed a horse that is well but short of fitness. He ran as if the race would put him spot on. That's why 6 days later he won well.