Ascot 10/05/08

[bowles10]

2.20 Heritage Handicap Victoria cup ZAAHID sticks out here in this race, with a record of 1-1-1-2 over this distance, anyone who has seen the 2 races this season will know that the horse came to challenge & just never saw it home. Coming back to 7f with a draw of 14 of 26 runners, it has the choice to go with either split during the race. 4yo's have a good record in the race winning 4 of the last 10 races. 8 of the last 10 have weighed under 9st so thats another factor in its favour. RP forecast is 14/1 which i cant see to be honest.

[TheRat]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08

2.20 Heritage Handicap Victoria cup ZAAHID sticks out here in this race, with a record of 1-1-1-2 over this distance, anyone who has seen the 2 races this season will know that the horse came to challenge & just never saw it home. Coming back to 7f with a draw of 14 of 26 runners, it has the choice to go with either split during the race. 4yo's have a good record in the race winning 4 of the last 10 races. 8 of the last 10 have weighed under 9st so thats another factor in its favour. RP forecast is 14/1 which i cant see to be honest.

This is the horse I like the look of tomorrow too Rob. Will decide tomorrow, but looks likely it will be an EW selection The Godolphin runner in the first I had down to follow, but once again with the stable not hitting any form at all best watched at 7/2 mark

[TheRat]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08 By the way 14/1 is available now with Laddies

[bowles10]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08

By the way 14/1 is available now with Laddies

looks good at that price then, cheers. It will be in my trends thread but i havent done the whole field yet.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08 TRIBE 3.20 Ascot. 0.5 points each way. Needs to find a bit more on the bare form of things, but was progressing up until hitting a brick wall and losing the plot. God knows what went wrong then (maybe nothing), but I'm willing to ignore his come-back run last time and if he can improve for that run and get back to progressing like he was, then he does appear to be on a decent mark for this race. He's been dropped another 3lb to race off a mark of 72, and 'if' he can find a little more on that progressive form of May/June 06, and his win in Aug 07 (where he proved he can go well after a break) then he could go very well today. Goes on the ground and the trip's fine, so I just hope the loss of form has a 'fair enough' reason behind it, and we get a good run at a big price.

[billy the punter]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08 Ascot 2.20 (Heritage Class 2) I backed Laa Rayb at a big price in Sunday's big handicap at Newmarket. I wrote this about him: Quote:

Laa Rayb - He did me a few favours last year at nice prices and I think he starts this year on a fair mark, only a 1lb higher than getting touched off in a nice handicap at Chester. The season started brightly for him, tailed off for a run or two then he bounced back to form, he was a little inconsistent and looked an awkward ride at times. His best form (and 3 of his 4 wins) were at tight, handy tracks (Southwell, Goodwood, Chester). I think these tracks kept him busy and stopped him thinking, so therefore this track is a worry. He has been gelded though, and that could iron out all his creases. Sure to win more races this year, but acting here is a worry, only taking a chance here due to the gelding op.

I thought he run a cracker and the formline doesn't do him justice. I still think there are big races in his obviously. A quick reappearance but won last season when having two quick runs. Winston does well for the yard too. I don't think he got the 9f on Sunday and this 7f is more up his street. From the bookies that are currently betting on this, William Hill are biggest at 16/1, however the current betfair price is only 16. Obviously he is being tipped by Pricewise or another big tipster. That is a massive pain obviously, but what can you do? I fancy him strong so will take under the odds. Fishforcompliments ran ok in Laa Rayb's race on Sunday and although I don't see him reversing form with the above, looked like he was coming into form and is over priced. King Of Dixie is a horse I've always had an eye on. He ran a fine on his debut in a decent maiden, stable runners don't usually figure FTO so he went into the notebook there and then. Won his maiden without any fuss then took the step to handicap company in his stride with a nice win in a warm Class 3 at Kempton. Has only been raise 5lb for that so there is no way his winning has stopped. This is a big test though but straight away to me he looked the type to win a big race and IMO should be favourite here. Zaahid has done nothing wrong this year but I don't see any reason why he should turn those placed efforts into a win in this. The ground could be too lively for him too. I backed Skhilling Spirit LTO on the basis that he had dropped to a favourable mark. It's still the case as he runs off a lower mark than when he was 2nd in this last year. However, is another that will not be helped by the ground. Salient will be all the better for his A/W spin LTO. Last year's turf form is very decent and is massively overpriced. I may be wrong, but I think the wrong two horses are at the front of the market. King Of Dixie 50% of stake 9.6 betfair Laa Rayb 30% of stake 16.5 betfair Salient 10% of stake 42 betfair Fishforcompliments 5% of stake 25 betfair Skhilling Spirit 5% of stake 30 betfair

[fintron]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08 Ascot – 1.10 – Tungsten Strike 14/1 Lads

Group winner contesting a listed race here. Made all under Daryll Holland to score at Goodwood when last seen at the end of last season. Has course form over further here from last May. Daryll Holland has scored a few times on Championship Point leading from the front, so hoping for another big priced winner in that style here.

[Carl]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08 We'll Come 2.20 Ascot Should be fit enough for this as he's won after a long lay off before. The lightly-raced four-year-old ran a string of good races in 2007, scoring in maiden company in May before chasing home the likes of Tybalt and The Illies in competitive handicaps.

[alexmac]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08 2.20 - ZAAHID e/w @ 14/1 Looks like a large price for a horse that is on the up. Decent run last time out in a hot 1m handicap, this drop in trip should not hinder him. Well drawn, as there looks like being pace right across the track. Was so surprised to be able to get the 14/1 on a horse who is fit, in form, well drawn and clearly more than capable of taking big races like this. One slight concern is whether or not he will be able to handle the firmer ground. I am willing to risk that he will - and have taken an e/w bet at a decent price.

[alexmac]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08 1.45 - Frangrancy @ 9/2 This fillies race looks like a pretty open affair. Unfortunately, due to the non runner we are only getting e/w top 2. But I am sticking with a win bet on Fragrancy. Represents a top stable who can get them ready first time out. Looked to be the progressive type last year, and if she has wintered well, the form of her last win at Redcar looks to be fairly strong. Jamboretta is clearly a danger, but I think that 9/2 about Fragrancy is on the generous side.

[alexmac]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08 1.10 - Ivy Creek e/w @ 13/2 Having already had a decent run this season, he comes into this race fit - unlucky many others. That race has worked out fairly well, and he should come on for the run. Again, a slight question mark is raised over the ground - can he handle the good to firm...? 13/2 e/w looks fair to me.

[alexmac]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08 1.10 - Ivy Creek e/w @ 13/2 Having already had a decent run this season, he comes into this race fit - unlucky many others. That race has worked out fairly well, and he should come on for the run. Again, a slight question mark is raised over the ground - can he handle the good to firm...? 13/2 e/w looks fair to me.

[Aykay1]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	110 Ascot
Selection	Tungsten Strike (Each-Way)
Strength	3/10
Date	10/05/2008
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ 15.00 (Back)
Reasoning	This one is down in grade and goes well fresh, finishing 1st and 2nd on his last 2 seasonal reappearances. He probabaly would like a couple of furlongs further but he has his ground at least. He looks a bit overpriced with Ladbrokes.

[billy the punter]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08 Ascot 1.45 (Heritage Class 2) I was sweet on Jamboretta a fortnight ago, not just for the race she won, but for the whole season.

She is another one my shortlist this year and I am confident her current handicap mark of 85 will look very lenient when looking back at the end of the season. I will probably follow her all season so will take a chance on her here even though the drop back to a mile is far from ideal and the easy ground is an unknown.

I said after that I'd follow her off a cliff this season and I don't see a 7lb hike stopping her gaining more success this season. Ginger mentioned some post-race comments on here and suggested that she will probably be under-priced NTO. He isn't wrong, as she probably should be a 5/4 shot here. I was impressed with Baharah on the dirt early this year and her 2nd to Medicine Path reads well. The run LTO in Dubai can be ignored and she is interesting on turf this year, although clearly going to be hard to place. Medicea Sidera starts the season on a fair mark, after some likeable displays last season. Wins come at 7f but I think she will get the mile. May need the run and stable form a worry (as always with this bloke) but looks sure to win a race off current mark. Jamboretta 80% of stake 1.8 betfair Baharah 10% of stake 15.5 betfair Medicea Sidera 10% of stake 18 betfair

[Jonesy Knows]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08 *TIP* sorry for the lateness of this tip however Brother works nights in a Casino (He's the manager) he just come down to mine to give me a tip! He knows most punters who frequent his Casino and gets some decent tips - last night when he was working he got a call from one of his frequent punters, she owns a load of fashion shops for women and has a few horses with Mick Channon! She doesn't own this horse however she simply told my brother to back: South Cape 2.20 Ascot Each -Way I've just took some 28/1 from Betfred Ew for it... I thought I'd post it on here if anybody fancies a go, but please don't shoot the messenger if it loses! :ok

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08 1.45 Jamboretta 15 pts 5/6 var bog stable vibes are strong about this one and won well lto which confirmed the progression she was showing towards the end of last season. Looks a typical improver from the yard who won this race last year, will like the ground and as market suggests, th eone seemingly to beat. 2.20 Al Khaleej 5/1 var 7.5 pts e.w Zaahid 12/1 sj bog 7.5 pts e.w Al khaleej will be sharp after a recent all weather win and had good and progressing turf form last season in decent handicaps, third for example behind the illies here shows the ever important course form, a/w shows good current form and every chance of a place at least in huge field. Zaahid will love this trip, a strong 7f is favourable, form at 7f is strong, run in spring mile maybe didnt get home over a mile, at newb. actually made later progress at a mile imo, so slightly mixed messages there but undoubtedly solid, race should suit and although form on softer, it has got some decent rusn on quicker. 3.20 Silver Suitor 15 pts 11/8 var bog Put this up last week and lost in a barging match at hq. A bit unlucky there not to continue progression from last year when moved up in trip and on good ground, he shone brightly. Capable of continuing that upward curve.

[bowles10]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08

Placepot		Places
1	Tungsten Strike (4)	3
2	Jamboretta (3)	2
3	We'll Come (13)	4
	Skhilling Spirit (14)
	Zaahid (16)
4	Glamorous Spirit (5)	2
5	Hue (8)	3
6	Esteem Machine (2)

just a small interest on the placepot today in case it comes up big

[billy the punter]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08 Ascot 3.20 (Class 3) I nearly backed Silver Suitor on Sunday but decided to watch as he was FTO. He travelled very well and was hampered late on. Most will say he was unlucky although I'm not sure he would've won. It was still a great run and I think it would've been only fitness that beat him. I would back him to reverse the form with those front two now. He has gone up slightly but still looks ahead of the handicapper, he travels like a class horse and is expected to be better than handicap class in the future. Entered in the Ascot Gold Cup so there could be even further improvement to come over this trip. Sure to win off this mark today or very soon Plane Painter may fair better with the run under him. Hue was given a shocking ride LTO, 7lb higher for that run though, you don't usually see that for a 3rd, but thats how bad the ride was - and the form has worked out well too. Stable went close in the Chester Cup. Silver Suitor 100% of stake 2.48

[mowgli77]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08 I'm pretty sure Ivy Creek just broke its leg, looked like it was flapping about when it ran into another horse.

[billy the punter]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08

I'm pretty sure Ivy Creek just broke its leg' date=' looked like it was flapping about when it ran into another horse.[/quote'] Terrible break. I cannot believe people try to take advantage and want to lay 200/1, 1000/1 on betfair after it happens. Total scumbags. Hope they never back another winner. Jim McGrath, your time is up. He is getting worse, bumbling and stuttering all the time.

[mowgli77]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08

Terrible break. I cannot believe people try to take advantage and want to lay 200/1, 1000/1 on betfair after it happens. Total scumbags. Hope they never back another winner. Jim McGrath, your time is up. He is getting worse, bumbling and stuttering all the time.

I've backed Ivy Creek but the money isn't important at this moment in time, got its legs tangled and when it went wrong I could see it's leg was gone, felt sick. Hate to see horses injured like that, still no news from BBC, is it going to have to be put down now, probably won't come back from that.

[alexmac]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08 Been put down. RIP Ivy Creek

[alexmac]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08 Cannot believe people were laying it after it brokedown.... scummers.

[Trotter]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08 3.55 Got a short list of 4 - Dazed and Amazed, Jimmy Styles, Southandwest, Rainbow Mirage The only one of them that has won a handicap before is Jimmy Styles, but he got shoved up 11 lbs for that and was well beaten off his new mark. Only down 1 lb today, so will need a career best first time out this season. Dazed and Amazed is getting to be well handicapped, but he seems like an in and out performer. Probably over-rated by virtue of an AW Listed win after which his rating went up into the 100s. Gradually falling, could just about be on a fair mark now, but you'd want to see him put in a good run. Hope it's not today !! Southandwest started in handicaps off 88 and was narrowly beaten, so 85 seems fair. Been up and down between 5, 6 and 7 furlongs but 6F seems his best trip. Had a run this season. Good EW chance Rainbow Mirage similarly started in the high 80s and has come down to 84. He probably still needs to improve a little bit to win off 84 but has conditions to suit, is lightly raced and has had a run this season. Another good EW shot. Two EW selections - Southandwest and Rainbow Mirage.

[SeanMac]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08 backed Al Khaleej 2.20 Ascot today :) got it at 5/1 it now sits 9/2f with 20 mins until the race :D runs really well at 7f , only ran this distance once before and showed its his best distance , finishing 1st :) only put a £1 on it for a wee bit of entertainment :)

[SeanMac]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08 finished 2nd , beat with a friggin neck lol

[bowles10]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08

2.20 Heritage Handicap Victoria cup ZAAHID sticks out here in this race, with a record of 1-1-1-2 over this distance, anyone who has seen the 2 races this season will know that the horse came to challenge & just never saw it home. Coming back to 7f with a draw of 14 of 26 runners, it has the choice to go with either split during the race. 4yo's have a good record in the race winning 4 of the last 10 races. 8 of the last 10 have weighed under 9st so thats another factor in its favour. RP forecast is 14/1 which i cant see to be honest.

:nana kin hell, 14's taken last night, returned 5's Get in u beauty well done to the others who put it up also:ok

[billy the punter]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08 Nice one on Zaahid bowles and others. But I feel robbed with King Of Dixie. Watch the stalls. Lost many lengths, beaten 3/4. Surely that made a difference? Paul Doe on the big stage? Hmmm. Laa Rayb unseated too. :@

[alexmac]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08 Get in get in get in. Took 14/1 this morning....!!!! Couldn't believe it when I saw the price at the off... Fantastic ride from a jock I don't usually have much time for.

[billy the punter]

Re: Ascot 10/05/08 Can't believe my two both lost the race at the start. Unreal luck.