Chester 08/05/08

[bowles10]

2nd day selections here please

[Charlie Wong]

Re: Chester 08/05/08 2.45 DR FREMANTLE Improving Sir Michael Stoute 3yr old, impressive at Newmarket only beaten a neck by Bronze Cannon, where both horse horse's forged clear of the rest, that run should have him spot on for the step up to 1m4f,looks a really smart colt for the future, with some interesting entries for the future.

[bowles10]

Re: Chester 08/05/08 3.15 looked at this 3yo race & the draw will no doubt come into play again on this tight track. Eastern Gift, Royalist & Green Wadi trainers all have + signs in the profit column for 3yo's at the track. What surprises me is the early prices on the race with green Wadi priced at 16/1 & Eastern Gift priced at 20/1. Both are low drawn but the difference between the 2 in form is quite significant. Green Wadi has struggled along in Class 4 & 5 maidens failing to win any of them over 8f. Will stay further so surprised to see it at this trip. Eastern Gift on the other hand looks value at 20/1 based on the following: Won here over the distance in September with a pillar to post victory over Bellomi (franked form with a win next time out & then ran in a newmarket grp3 7th of 8 beaten 7L). Next time out was a 0.5L 2nd to Meeriss at goodwood in a listed contest, & with Meeriss puting up a good show at Newm at the weekend behind Khanduhar run, that form looks decent. Peformed poorly on reappearance in the Easter stakes at Kempton however i will choose to ignore the AW outing. Hannon has a decent record here with 3yo's & showing a nice profit. There are plently of reputations on the line here with these 3yo's & the race will surely produce more winners in the future. EW Eastern Gift

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Chester 08/05/08 1.45 Escape Route 15 pts Improved since being gelded last year and now started to fulfil earlier promise, after string of respectable runs in dubai and solid run in lincoln, it took advantage of step up in trip to win lto on new a/w track, he can handle turf as well and has ran well on quick ground in the past, career high mark certainly not beyong him especially as some of these in poor form, prince forever (my lincoln pick at the start of the season) for one. 2.15 Stotsfold 7.5 pts e.w 6/1 pp Maraahel goes for 4 in a row but I feel the Cecil horse and this one can definitely make him work and he could be vulnerable. i choose this one just ahead of the cecil horse as although i like the promise of that horse, he is not quite delivering on that and im not a sure a this track is exactly what it needs, scotsfold can handle the track, course winner and ran well here last year only to be nailed late on having been backed, stepped up last year and ended group 3 winner (ahead of the good zaham) and also placed in listed race behind purple moon, had no luck first up at hq (cecil horse just ahead) stepping up in trip today will suit and despite penalty over all others bar maraahel, it shouldnt be overlooked, definitely can be in the 2 if on song. 2.45 Pampas Cat 15 pts Created really good impression lto, won at 20/1 at hq with ease and race is working out, second won well here yesterday, third won, staying on fifth ran well yesterday staying on and for this one to beat those obviously talented horses with such ease on debut reads well for a horse having its first run, should be able to build on that experience tomorrow and whilst this is a step up, he has earned the right for that step up and looks a very interesting contender. 4.00 Senatorial 15 pts Hills already off the mark at this meeting and has some good chances throughout the day to add to that but this might just be his best. Not only does he target this meeting but he targets this particular race, won the last three years and all with m hills on board and last two years with good types who went onto group 1 wins. Abdullah's racing manager gave a strong word for this as one of the Prince's more forward 2 yr olds and showed on debut that he has some promise, fifth in a race at hq which unsurprisingly has seen amny run well from that race if not produce many winners since (loads of seconds,) should step up on that run, draw in 8 maybe a bit higher than ideal but even so it could have been worse and lots seemingly going for it.

[fintron]

Re: Chester 08/05/08

1.45 Escape Route 15 pts Improved since being gelded last year and now started to fulfil earlier promise, after string of respectable runs in dubai and solid run in lincoln, it took advantage of step up in trip to win lto on new a/w track, he can handle turf as well and has ran well on quick ground in the past, career high mark certainly not beyong him especially as some of these in poor form, prince forever (my lincoln pick at the start of the season) for one. 2.15 Stotsfold 7.5 pts e.w 6/1 pp Maraahel goes for 4 in a row but I feel the Cecil horse and this one can definitely make him work and he could be vulnerable. i choose this one just ahead of the cecil horse as although i like the promise of that horse, he is not quite delivering on that and im not a sure a this track is exactly what it needs, scotsfold can handle the track, course winner and ran well here last year only to be nailed late on having been backed, stepped up last year and ended group 3 winner (ahead of the good zaham) and also placed in listed race behind purple moon, had no luck first up at hq (cecil horse just ahead) stepping up in trip today will suit and despite penalty over all others bar maraahel, it shouldnt be overlooked, definitely can be in the 2 if on song.

I like these two too and they have gone into my entry for todays Beat Victor Comp. I backed Escape Route LTO when he beat Luberon at Great Leighs and he's proven himself on turf previous too. No problems with ground or trip, just hope handicapper hasn't halted his progress. The reason I like Stotsfold is due to its impessive form over course and distance. Three tries here and form of 112 in those races is impressive. Won group 3 at Goodwood last season so up to the task at this level and goes on the ground too.

[billy the punter]

Re: Chester 08/05/08 Forgot to copy and paste my first bet (1.45) from my thread into this, oh well here is the 3.15. 3.15 (Class 2)

Despite having 9 runs at two Huzzah proved at Newbury that he is far from exposed and perhaps has improved over the winter. Although I believe he was lucky to beat the 2^nd, who would surely turn the tables off levels even, it was a warm race and he found a bit of form to reverse placing with some of his 2yo rivals. Pretty consistent, usually finishing high up in all races, beat 107 of his 137 rivals to date. Possibly overpriced but might find one or two too good.

We really know nothing about Wasan, his debut maiden form is ok and he bolted up in his first handicap. Difficult to know what he achieved that day and has a 14lb hike and a high draw to contend with. Can’t back him on guesswork at his price, although is an unknown quantity obviously.

Adversity drifted badly on his seasonal debut suggesting he may’ve needed the run. If that was the case then he probably done well to finish 2^nd. I’m not convinced of the form of that though. The 4^th, 5^th and 8^th have all disappointed in similar grade NTO and with a few unlucky in behind I doubt that run is good enough for him to take this. Owned by Alex Ferguson and all the United boys will no doubt be there tomorrow, knowing Fergie he will probably blame the stewards or clerk of the course, or someone if he gets beat. I backed him LTO and surprised that form isn't working out, worried about leaving him out here.

I liked the way Magnitude won on his debut as the stable’s runners usually come on for their debut outing. I backed him LTO, his first handicap start and he looked all over the winner before getting out-battled late on. I think inexperience beat him and he’ll know his job more today. This is harder without doubt but think Chester would suit his style and won around a bend on his debut.

Royalist ran in a fair maiden on his sole 2yo start. After being bang there for most of the race he weakened late on to finish 5^th of 14. Let’s break the race down:

1^st Shallal, rated 95

2^nd Eastern Gift, (runs here) rated 93

3^rd Dream Eater, won the big Doncaster 300k race, 5^th in the 2000 Guineas.

4^th Moynaham, beat Ingauzu Falls NTO, 6^th in the 2000 Guineas.

5^th Royalist

6^th Paveroc, rated 93

7^th Cigalas, only race once since.

8^th, 9^th, 10^th, 11^th, 12^th 13^th are all have handicap marks in the 80s.

No wonder that Royalist won his 2^nd start, his seasonal debut this year. He bolted up by over 3l despite pulling hard early on. The 2^nd is rated 81 and as the fifth won off 74, you’d say the 81 rating the 2^nd has to be pretty on the money.

Now given what I’ve just wrote about Royalist’s two races, how can the handicapper have given him a rating of just 85? It is a very kind mark, it would be too lenient even if it’s judged on the debut run. But with Royalist’s improvement then he could make a mockery of this rating and cannot be ignored, simple as. Plum draw too and has the pace to benefit from it, just hope he acts here.

Although 4/1 was available earlier, I’m taking the current odds as I think this could be smashed into later this morning. Royalist 75% of stake 4.1 >betfair Magnitude 25% of stake 9.8 >betfair

[billy the punter]

Re: Chester 08/05/08 2.45 I backed Doctor Freemantle as part of a winning T/C LTO and before the race I mentioned similarities (albeit weak) with Stoute's Papal Bull. Both were disppointing before winning at two and both took the same route before this race. Although Papal Bull won the race where Doctor Freemantle was 2nd. Papal Bull won this as we know so perhaps Doctor Freemantle will follow in his footsteps.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Chester 08/05/08 4.35 Chester - Good Gorsoon Was very unlucky last time when denied a clear run and will appreciate the further furlong. Stable is starting to hit the winners big time and I think this one can run a big race if ridden closer to the pace. 7/2 @ Will's

[fintron]

Re: Chester 08/05/08 good call on Dr Fremantle lads. Another Ryan Moore winner.