Chester 07/05/08

[bowles10]

Decent midweek card to start the may Chester meeting

[bowles10]

Re: Chester 07/05/08 3.15 Chester - GREEN PARK EW What looks to be a tricky handicap can be narrowed down a bit just looking at the draw which has seen 9 of the last 10 winners winning from stall 6 or lower (the other winner was out of stall 8). The one i am surprised to have only raced here once previous is GREEN PARK which finished 2nd here as a 3yo. All 4 career wins have come over the min distance of 5f, in 8 of 20 races over 5f, the horse has either won or placed whereas over 6f, only 2 places in 13 attempts. In May, the horse has ran 8 times winning 3 times & placing 3 times. Out of stall 2 tomorrow, this has to be a great ew bet although will be around the 5/1 mark.

[TheRat]

Re: Chester 07/05/08 2.15 Chester Laughter WIN (4.7 Betfair) Only been see last year winning a maiden at Leicester on soft, and has it all to prove, but expected to have a good year and has a good chance n the Oaks if runs well here. That run was over 7f so this is a step up but breeding means should not be a problem. Grond also a question. Sugar Mint a clear danger but connections should have her ready for this, and Stoute amongst the winners so far. 2.45 Chester Highland Legacy WIN (5.3 Betfair) Well in on the handicap here, despite an extra 3lbs for last win, and improving still. Trainer form is decent here too. won easily LTO over 2m and this extra should not be a problem. 2/2 with Spencer on board and acts on the ground, although general concensus is likes a cut in the ground, but I am not worried about the going here at all. Fact of the matter is has won easily last 3 runs and as i stated, progressive sort, so although this is much tougher than previous encounters should go close on ability.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Chester 07/05/08 1.45 Shes A Shaw Thing 15 pts Looks ideal type for this, two from two so far and both times showed loads of speed which is ideally suited for this contest at this track. Win on first start was boosted by second winning in France to add to another subsequent win, win lto at Nott was also impressive when she made all to win with ease. Drawn middle, so not too bad (wider would have made it harder), slightly unproven on good but if she takes to it they will do well to stop her. 2.15 Sugar Mint 15 pts Hills has a good record at this meeting and he seems to think highly of this one even from 2 year old days when heavily backed on debut. One very good run at 2 when behind Spacious in fourth and broke maiden at Bath with form boosted since, the second came out and won very impressively from awful start at hq. Step up in distance should suit too and whilst one rival I like is laughter, who created a good impression on debut, the form of her win has been let down big time, horses losing @ 2/7 and 10/11 since from that race. 2.45 Double Banded 7.5 pts e.w 9/2 lad Som Tala 16/1 var 7.5 pts e.w. Double Banded thrived last year with a succession of wins and placed efforts as he stepped up in trip, mark rose accordingly but that didnt stop him as shown when winning first up this year from the talented but frustrating tilt, officially well in despite penalty, should go well on probably favoured ground with lowish draw in its favour. Som Tala doesnt quite have that low draw but does have a few notable runs especially in races like this, ie. last year was respectable, at Asc and is a horse who hasnt quite had the luck at times, a few unlucky passages but like so many of Channon's, he should come on for first run of the season and Dettori interesting booking, place claims. 4.00 Daraahmen 15 pts Stepped up on only start last year to be noteworthy second at hq lto behind the impressive winner. Hills, as already mentioned seems to target this meeting, and should be pick of al maktoum pair with richard hills on board (although I would personally prefer dwyer), the other maktoum horse also stayed on quite eye catchingly in that same race at hq but does on the formbook have it to do to reverse placings. Good low draw should enable a good early position to show if its good enough.

[TheRat]

Re: Chester 07/05/08 Woody. Laughter is a horse I fancy following so gonna get on tomorrow, but as you point out the form of that maiden she won at Leicester looks poor. worth a go at the odds I got though IMO, but I agree, Sugar Mint has a very good chance here too

[billy the punter]

Re: Chester 07/05/08 Chester 2.45 Chester Cup (Heritage Class 2) My idea of the short-list: Wing Collar - Come back from a year off the course last July and didn't run a bad race last season. Won a Listed handicap before running a great race in the Ebor (5th off 1lb lower). I believe it was a fine Ebor last year, I rated Purple Moon and Honolulu and they proved how good they are after the Ebor. Wing Collar ran ok on his reappearance over an inadequate 1m4f, finishing a close third. The cheekpieces were left off there but are back on here. His record with them fitted reads 1613015. Although he has run well many times with them off, there is obvious improvement with them on; a 43% S/R with them on, as opposed to 5% without them. Well drawn and although not overly well handicapped it could've been worse after his Ebor 5th, given what the leading runners did after. Has only ever been tried three times over 2m prior to this (not won), although I believe he will stay, was a close third over 2m at Haydock in 2006 a race which recorded a fast time so it must've been a true test. Fair Along - Ran a fine race in this last season and in the Ces when he was arguably unlucky. 7lb higher here though and doesn't come here in the same vein as he did last year. Big price and a fine booking but needs to bounce back, which looks unlikely given what I saw at Punchestown, he hasn't looked himself lately. Does anyone else believe he was a better horse when they run him from the front? Greenwich Meantime - Only 1lb higher than winning last year but his form tailed off badly last season. Has won on his seasonal appearance on each of the past three seasons so goes well fresh and can't be ruled out due to that. Past winners have a better record in this than any other top handicap with Top Cees, Rainbow High and Anak Pekan all winning this twice. I didn't fancy him at all last year so cannot bring myself to back him here - as they say, if you didn't go the wedding, don't go to the funeral. Black Rock - Was favourite in that great maiden that Diamond Tycoon won last year. I won't go into how many winners come out of that, I did once on here and it went on for a paragraph. Take a minute to check out the form, there are multiple winners, even well down the field. Always looked a stayer and come into his own over distances up to 1m5f last year. Has scope but not guaranteed to stay this far, and stable disappointed with a similar potential improver in this last year (Galient). Badly drawn too. Interesting but too many question marks surround him. Som Tala - I was very sweet on his chances last year, I backed him at a big price and he was on my list of horses to follow last season. He ran ok in 5th (looked dangerous on the turn), but ultimately was disppointing. I finally gave up on him after he was beaten in a weak race on his 4th start of the season. He was so unlucky at Royal Ascot when given a typical comedic ride from Coco The Clown, sorry I mean J H Bowman - but as he ran poorly in weaker races after I questioned his attitude. He has been gelded over the winter, which should help, although was again disappointing on his debut this year. Has been beaten favourite on three of his last four starts. Wide draw to overcome. Capable on best form clearly, but will he show it? Tilt - Really interesting jockey booking but that is the best thing I can say about him. Only 2 wins from 23 starts and on a losing run of 15. Ran well to finish 2nd to Double Banded FTO this year but no reason to believe a turn around in form. Not a no hoper but underpriced IMO. Highland Legacy - Obvious chances off a penalty after beating useful yardstick with ease LTO. Has improvement in him for sure and certain to stay but seems to prefer a big of give. Also he looked beat LTO, he obviously needs to be urged along in races, would that be ideal for a Chester Cup? He may get tapped for toe at a stage. I am not sure this course will suit him or his style. I will be including him for sure but will probably play in running with him, I'm convinced I will get a bigger price that way. Double Banded - Like a lot of the yard's runners has been a revelation since running over middle distances and further. I love the way he travelled when winning on his seasonal debut and clearly he is still improving. His turf form over 12f+ reads 6111121. I remember thinking he looked a bit awkward (head high and hanging left) when wining at Newmarket last season so it is no surprise that his only two defeats come on right handed tracks. He has a 100% (4/4) turf record when going left handed so Chester should suit down to the ground. (He did finish 3rd on the A/W at Wolverhampton, but that was as good as a win as he challenged up the inner which was a big disadvantage, and was only beaten 1.5l). Good draw, acts on most ground but good would be ideal. Will be higher handicapped in the future and must be included. I've left out most of the runners that have been hurdling, I don't like ex-hurdlers for this race and they have a bad record over the years. Maybe because you need a bit more toe and class to win this than the other staying handicaps on the calender. As ever, a tough race, and certainly not as easy as other Class 2 or Heritage handicaps. There are so many imponderables in this race so it's so hard to be confident, same every year. Double Banded 50% of stake 5.4 betfair Wing Collar 25% of stake 17 betfair Highland Legacy 20% of stake (5.3 for the purpose of the post but I will be backing in-running) Som Tala 5% of stake 19 betfair 2.15 (Cheshire Oaks) Had a speculative 40/1 bet on Laughter for the Oaks so hopeful of a decent run here. Sure to improve at three. Sugar Mint ran well against top class opponents over inadequate trips last season. His maiden form this year got a boost when the 2nd was an impressive handicap winner at Newmarket last weekend. Over the past 10 runnings Barry Hills most prominent runners have finished 1145253136. I expect the winner to come from these two although I won't be having much of a bet (if any), I already want Laughter to win due to the ante-post bet.

[JackJarvis]

Re: Chester 07/05/08 Some really superb write ups in here lads. Brilliant. Like most, Ive heard the good vibes about Stoutes' LAUGHTER and I may have a little flutter tomorrow. May even back her antepost for the Oaks as im sure if she wins tomorrow the price will be slashed.

[TheRat]

Re: Chester 07/05/08

Some really superb write ups in here lads. Brilliant. Like most, Ive heard the good vibes about Stoutes' LAUGHTER and I may have a little flutter tomorrow. May even back her antepost for the Oaks as im sure if she wins tomorrow the price will be slashed.

Was thinking this myself......in 2 minds. Ante post is alays a gamble, especially when there are questions to be answered, like there are in her run today, but if she comes through, as you say, price will be slashed

[Gingertipster]

Re: Chester 07/05/08 2:15 Chester On form Laughter is not a value price but as I have backed her for the Oaks, if she can not win this she will struggle at Epsom. And if she is an Oaks winner, she can win this. Inexperienced for a race / track like this, hope she can handle it. Bound to improve for the run. However this does look a substandard Cheshire Oaks. Ran green but managed to win on debut at Leicester last year. Stables two year olds usually need their first outing (comparatively poor record) so that was encouraging . Sure to improve and should be suited by the step up in trip. Stoute is in excellent form. Backed Sugar Mint a couple of times last season, now not convinced she is that straight forward. Although she has the best form is quite short in the market and others could improve past her. Dancing Abbie won well on the all weather last time but the race was not up to much. Needs to improve but not out of the question. Queen Of Naples also won her maiden on reappearance with a minimum of fuss. Thought good enough to run in the Marcel Boussac on second start. Then finding a slowly run mile against her in a listed race (started short priced favourite). By stamina influence Singspeil, from the family of Derby winner Oath, sure to improve for a step up in trip. Beginning to wonder if I made the right horse the saver. Stable not in as good a form as a few weeks back. Sail is the other one with a realistic chance. 14/1 12^th of 18 on debut behind stable companion Highway to Heaven at two. Second at short odds on reappearance. Well bred, by Saddlers Wells and half sister to Hearthstead Maison. Should improve but needs to. Was backed at big prices for the Oaks yesterday. 2:45 Chester Two horses take a big chunk out of the market here, Highland Legacy and Double Banded. Similar types, both were impressive on their reappearances, both were progressive last season, both should stay the trip, both well drawn. The former did win at Windsor at the start of his winning run but improvement has come on a soft surface, I would not want it to dry up too much. Stable still in cracking form. The latter has form on good-firm and good-soft. Stable not in quite the same form as a few weeks ago (when last run). Black Rock is a progressive type, yet to run this season but does come from an in form yard. Not sure to get this trip (by Rock Of Gibraltar) but did stay 13 furlongs on very soft last season. Not well drawn but races prominently and with the exception of Shipmaster, most of those drawn below him are held up so might be able to get a fair early position. Similar comments apply to Shipmaster, lightly raced, progressive, prominent runner from a poorish draw. Asking a lot to defy top weight but is a battler. Fair Along ran well in this last year but has not looked as genuine as he has in the past over jumps this time around. Greenwich Meentime won it last term but others are more open to improvement now and did lose his form late in the season. Inchnadaph did not show enough promise on reappearance for me. Backed Som Tala a few times last season including in this, without success. Sometimes struggles for pace, jockey booking (Dettori) is eye catching. Full House has run well in big field handicaps but has not been in good form recently over jumps. His trainer is though and may look at his price again. Drawn on the inside rail. Could give Tilt a chance, ran well on reappearance, 2^nd behind Double Banded. Do not make him the main bet because of a poor win / run ratio (often placed). Missoula is the main bet. Very progressive last term when won here and at York for Mark Tomkins. Now has a first start for Miss Suzy Smith who is in great form. Acts on ground on a firm or soft side. Stays the trip well and fairly drawn. Around 20/1 is too big

[billy the punter]

Re: Chester 07/05/08 3.15 (Class 2) The draw is a constant talking point during this meeting. On the past ten runnings of this sprint, here are where the 1-2-3 were drawn followed by the amount of runners; 6-7-4 (13) 2-4-8 (15) 6-1-4 (14) 4-2-1 (14) 1-5-6 (14) 3-1-5 (16) 8-2-5 (12) 6-4-1 (12) 6-1-2 (10) 4-2-3 (8) Winners: 40% drawn low, 60% drawn middle, 0% drawn high Placed: 67% drawn low, 33% middle, 0% drawn high 15 runners here so out go Buachaill Dona (11), Matsunosuke (14), Tournedos (15), Strike Up The Band (13), Ajigolo (12). I think Fire Up The Band (10) can be discounted from his middle to high draw, although he does have the toe to pop out and accross. However I do not back Alan Berry horses so he is out. Methaaly prefers longer and is 17lb out the handicap, so can be excluded. Rebel Duke can go, drawn 9, 3lb out the handicap, 13lb higher than his win at Musselburgh were he was probably flattered as the 2nd hated the going. Best form on an easy surface too. Ebraam has only raced five times over 5f showing form lines of 12613. He is capable at the trip but most runs are on the A/W, he could find things a bit quick in this, expecially from stall 8. Carribean Coral won this last year off the same mark he runs off today, he has run poorly at this sort of mark (and lower) since though, and not sure he can win off this sort of mark thesedays. Green Park is well drawn and well handicapped on some form, however I've never known a horse to be beaten in so many big sprint handicaps, yet he is always fancied. He has won once in 23 starts (single figure price in 10 of those runs). All recent good form on heavy, soft or GS and with the ground drying I can't have him. That leaves a short-list of: King Orchisos, Invincible Force, Bertoliver, King Of Swords. King Orchisos - Great draw and well handicapped on old form. Shaped as though coming back to form of late. Looked the winner at Donny on his turf debut this year before getting tired in the soft ground over 6f. That to me showed he is weighted to win and he runs here off a 1lb lower. Sure to make a bold bid from the front and this track looks sure to suit his trailblazing style. He likes 5f with a bend showing career form lines 711119. There are excuses with the defeats too, the 7th probably come a little too soon for him only being a 3yo in a warm sprint and the 9th he failed to get to the front and was hampered twice. Invincible Force - Fitness an issue but well handicapped. Runs off the same mark as he did when winning a nice race at the Curragh and when finishing a close 3rd to the decent Chief Editor. Loves it here 14173 so obviously laid out for this. Drawn well and certain to go close if fit. Bertoliver - Ran really well in sprints last season and is an interesting horse for this season. Another well drawn horse that should like it round here as he likes to be up with the pace. Come on for his first run on his first two seasons so should be spot on for this. McEvoy apparently opting to ride Matsunosuke but Robinson is 1/2 on him. King Of Swords - Nice draw and improved for the run on past two years so another that should be spot on here. Out the handicap but still fairly treated on some form. Looked to disappoint at times when trained in Ireland last season but that could be misleading of most of the runs were on soft ground. The pick of his form is on good or faster. Kim Tinker is a worry around these turns though (0/10 over last five seasons). Hope I haven't gone in too early with these prices, I thought all would be bigger. King Orchisos 50% of stake 4.5 betfair Invincible Force 25% of stake 9 betfair Bertoliver 15% of stake 17 betfair King Of Swords 10% of stake 16 betfair

[Woodie]

Re: Chester 07/05/08 1.45 She's a shaw thing Looks a good bet to me, has won with ease on her first two starts and has a formline through frankies colt, got to give weight around but does look a usefull 2 year old in these types of races. Bounce out and should be to fast for these.

[Carl]

Re: Chester 07/05/08 E/W double for me, Som Tala 2.45 Chester 5th in this last year and now only 4lb up since that run. Has been gelded since but ran well on the AW LTO over 2 miles at Kempton. Sent off as ' 2/1 fav' that day so there must have been some confidence behind him and today Frankie makes an eye-catching booking, at 16/1 he could run well. Caribbean Coral 3.15 Chester Won this last year off a 4lb higher mark and although he 5lb wrong in the weights Luke Morris's claimer will help reduce the weight to just 2lb's. He drawn low which is another plus and at 10/1 he's a solid e/w.

[Aykay1]

Re: Chester 07/05/08

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	315 Chester
Selection	Caribbean Coral (Each-Way)
Strength	5/10
Date	07/05/2008
Bookmaker/Price	>Paddy Power @ 10.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Last years winner runs off a 5lb lower mark here and has taken an almost identical route to this race as he did last year. His last 2 wins have come over this course and distance and should run well from a satisfactory stall 6.

[Charlie Wong]

Re: Chester 07/05/08

07 May 2008

SAIL

Reports suggest that her recent work has been very good and coming on a bundle since her first run this season. I really liked this filly from my time in Ireland and i believe that she has potential to be much better than Listed class. She has a massive each way chance in the Cheshire Oaks at 2.15 Chester on 7th May.

source : kierenfallon.co.uk i've backed Slugger O' Toole and it won after reading Fallons comments on it.:) Interesting to see how Sail gets on in the 2.15:ok

[TheRat]

Re: Chester 07/05/08 Been some money coming in for it this morning

[Charlie Wong]

Re: Chester 07/05/08 your right rat, piling into Sail now.

[billy the punter]

Re: Chester 07/05/08 Needs to improve massively, (but that is very likely) as form is worse on offer out of those at the front of the betting. Would be 8/1 if not trained by O'Brien. But, she is trained by him, so can never be written off. Not playing but will be hoping Laughter runs some sort of a race to give my ante-post bet hope. :hope

[TheRat]

Re: Chester 07/05/08 well, gamble landed there! What happened with Laughter. Not in top 4 i see

[Charlie Wong]

Re: Chester 07/05/08 thanks KF:dude:beer

[SteveO]

Re: Chester 07/05/08 3.15 Chester Invincible Force 0.5pt EW Has (CD) form which is invaluable here and has a handy draw from stall 3. He's on the same mark as his highest winning mark but could be still progressing so I see him going close today.

[billy the punter]

Re: Chester 07/05/08

well, gamble landed there! What happened with Laughter. Not in top 4 i see

Travelled ok. Found nothing went they went for home. Not surprised given the market beforehand.

[TheRat]

Re: Chester 07/05/08

Not surprised given the market beforehand.

yea, was very worried before hand, and probably should not have bet, I was picking holes in her on this run myself, but thought it was worth a go at the price.

[billy the punter]

Re: Chester 07/05/08 4.35 (Class 3) Henry Cecil thinks a lot of Burn The Breeze and she won well to lose her maiden tag LTO. That was a warm fillies maiden, the 2nd finished 3rd in the Cheshire Oaks and the 5th ran well on Sunday after bolting before the start. Been given a real chance off 82 in this and will go well from the front. Henry always does well with his few runners here. I took 6.2 before the Cheshire Oak in case Changing Skies ran a race, she did so Burn The Breeze is a little shorter now but still backable. I backed Ballochroy at over 40s when he finished 5th to Bronze Cannon, he ran well there as he did on his debut when only losing out to Captain Webb through fitness. He has been in my notebook since that run and should pick up a handicap soon. Not a certain stayer but dam was so hoping. Yes Mr President won well against very little, we don't know an awful lot about him but is a big price. Sure to appreciate step up in distance. Allied Powers runs have all been on easy going, bar one at Lingfield, which was his only bad run - he may need give. Tighnabruaich improved for the step up to middle distances, is an interesting runner but handicaper taken no chances with a mark of 90. Segal should act here. Burn The Breeze 25% of stake E/W 5.9 win/2.08 place betfair Ballochroy 20% of stake E/W 10.5 win/2.76 place betfair Yes Mr President 10% of stake 17 betfair

[Charlie Wong]

Re: Chester 07/05/08 a work colleague of mine backed Shipmaster and King Orchisios today. both pulled-up.

[billy the punter]

Re: Chester 07/05/08

a work colleague of mine backed Shipmaster and King Orchisios today. both pulled-up.

F*ck me, he is a bigger bok than a cross-eyed monkey wearing green! :eek Mark our cards tomorrow, let us know who he is backing.

[Charlie Wong]

Re: Chester 07/05/08

F*ck me, he is a bigger bok than a cross-eyed monkey wearing green! :eek Mark our cards tomorrow, let us know who he is backing.

will swerve his bets:lol , will have a good look at them though, its my turn to do the bookies run tommorrow lunchtime.