Newmarket - Sunday 04/05/08

[billy the punter]

Newmarket 2.05 (Heritage Class2) A tricky affair with most of the fancied runners making their seasonal debuts. I have narrowed it down to Many Volumes, Laa Rayb, Fishforcompliments, Supaseus, Oceana Gold and Vainglory. Before I start, I have a feeling the draw will be important here, as it was last year when high numbers were at a disadvantage. It all depends were Oceana Gold goes, he is the most likely high drawn to lead and if he edges left, or fails to get to the front, we could have a repeat of a the 2000 Guineas where the entire field drift left. Many Volumes - His 5th of 17 at Goodwood in August reads very well considering he had to give weight to Pipedreamer, Mr Aviator, Buccelleti and Smokey Oakey. He is 6lb higher here but did win comfortably after that before finishing 2nd to the useful Kirklees again giving away 5lb. So his mark is fair. 2lb better off with Gulf Express for a neck defeat LTO. Stable flying. Drawn 16. Laa Rayb - He did me a few favours last year at nice prices and I think he starts this year on a fair mark, only a 1lb higher than getting touched off in a nice handicap at Chester. The season started brightly for him, tailed off for a run or two then he bounced back to form, he was a little inconsistent and looked an awkward ride at times. His best form (and 3 of his 4 wins) were at tight, handy tracks (Southwell, Goodwood, Chester). I think these tracks kept him busy and stopped him thinking, so therefore this track is a worry. He has been gelded though, and that could iron out all his creases. Sure to win more races this year, but acting here is a worry, only taking a chance here due to the gelding op. Drawn 13. Fishforcompliments - Was highly tried and two and three (ran in Guineas) but showed his best form for some time on his seasonal debut this year, his first handicap run. Is interesting this season now he has found his level but there is a doubt over him getting the 9f. Big price though. Drawn 7. Supaseus - Took this last year and followed it up with a great effort in the Hunt Cup (2lb lower here), ran below par on his final two starts - no disgrace though as it is probably a step too far to expect him to continue to peak given his trailblazing style. He doesn't take much racing and he clearly goes well fresh. If I ignore his racecourse debut (66/1), then his form when at least 10 weeks between runs reads 111. They are his only three career wins. If you think he is going to win a race this year then you must back him here, simple as. Sure to make a bold bid stands side. John Egan on board for all his better runs over the past two seasons. Drawn 5. Oceana Gold - The 2nd to Bankable (although well held by him) reads ok, but is 4lb higher and this trip could find him out. Drawn 15. Vainglory - Massive price this one. Well handicapped on bits and pieces of form (unlucky not to beat Vitznau/placed behind Don't Panic and Fremen) and was not disgraced out in Dubai this season. He is sure to start fulfilling his potential now he is being tried over longer trips. Like I say ran ok in Dubai over 10f and his form in this country at 9f or more reads one win and an 8th in a Listed race (beaten 3l) - ran above form on all starts over 9f. Drawn 8. Proponent will have his supporters but I couldn't back a Charlton horse to beat my nephews tortoise at the moment. Supaseus 45% of stake 11 betfair Many Volumes 25% of stake 10.5 betfair Laa Rayb 17.5% of stake 19 betfair Fishforcompliments 7.5% of stake 26 betfair Vainglory 5% of stake 65 betfair Newmarket 3.20 (1000 Guineas) I allocated 100% of my ante-post stake to Infallible at 5/1 (on ante-post thread). Always thought I'd have a further bet on the day and I think it's wise to do so and have at least another running for me. Although I'm more than happy with my ante-post selection. She was breathtaking in her trial, showed she had many gears. I can't have the jolly, she has yet to show she has the class of Infallible (with regards to style) and it's been a long time since the French took this. French jockeys have had some horror shows in English classics, none more so than Six Perfections also trained by Pascal Bary. He was ridden by the buffoon Thierry Thulliez who also had a mare on Sulamani in the Arc. Bary hasn't got Thulliez to worry about this time, however he has to contend with perhaps a bigger clown in C-P Lemaire. Anyone not sure of Lemaire's ability, take a look at his high profile rides on Chineur in the autumn of 2005. Three rides of pure comedy at York (Nunthorpe), Longchamp (Prix de L'Abbaye) and Maisons Laffite. He disppointed on US Ranger in last years 2000 too, hardly helping the horse, gave him no cover and allowed him to run alone in the centre. He soon lost the ride on him after he was beaten at Royal Ascot after. I'm not saying she cannot win, but I can't back this jock in a classic at the price. I've always like the Rockfel as a guide to future classic fillies. Over the past 9 runnings of the Rockfel; 7 winners have lined up in the 1000 Guineas - 4 have won. 2 well beaten (6th & 7th) Rockfel runners have won the 1000 Guineas. So that's 6 of the last 9 winners have come out of the Rockfel. Also some fillies that finished close up in the Rockfel have run some big races in the 1000 Guineas at big prices. Kitty Matcham won the Rockfel last year although she wasn't expect to hit that sort of form at 7f. She is sure to improve for longer trips this year. I'm on her for the Oak so will have to have an interest on her here. A worry that Ladbrokes go over the odds about her though, they have got the Ballydoyle horses right a lot over the years. Although Johnny Murtagh takes the ride, Ryan Moore is booked for Savethisdanceforme, so again with O'Brien, we learn nothing from the jockey bookings. Royal Confidence is the other Rockfel runner to line up here. She originaly took my eye last season when she finished a sh behind good thing Fashion Rocks at Goodwood on her 3rd start. She challenged very wide, travelled on her own for a bit and it cost her the race. No surprise that she won her following two starts. It was a similar case to Goodwood when she was 3rd (btn 1l) in the Rockfel. She came wide with her challenge then, which didn't help, she drifted to the middle slightly inside the last. I'm hoping it wasn't intentional and that she needs daylight. If she is given a better ride here I can see her running a race that will make a mockery of her odds. She ran a cracker in the Free Handicap LTO when getting done in the three-way photo. I don't recall many fillies lining up against colts in trials over the years. I may be wrong but the last one I can remember was Harayir, again in the Free H'cap - she finished 2nd in that and went on to win the Guineas. I'm not saying Royal Confidence is anywhere near the class of Harayir but I do belive she is over priced and wouldn't be surprised if she ran a race. After all there has been some massive priced placed horses in Guineas races over the years. Muthabarra has done nothing wrong and looks a real improver. Shame about the bruise she has suffered although she wouldn't be the first classic winner that there were bad vibes about just days before they went on to win. Spacious has done nothing wrong, nor had Soviet Song at this time and I always thought she disappointed slightly when going for this on her seasonal debut. Can Fanshawe ready her to win a Guineas FTO? (Infallible already on 5/1) Kitty Matcham 30% of stake 12.5 betfair Muthabarra 10% of stake 9 betfair Savethisdanceforme 10% of stake 12.5 betfair Royal Confidence 10% of stake win 110 betfair Royal Confidence 40% of stake place 17 betfair

[Woodie]

Re: Newmarket - Sunday 04/05/08 1000 - Saoirse Abu Looks wide open. Infallible looks the one they have to beat but there is a slight worry on the mile for her. Spacious I think has some nice form on the book and guarenteed to get this trip I'd rather back her out of the two cheverly runners. One I think is a monster bet at the price is Saoirse Abu she obviously needs the run first time out as she did last year and did have a penalty to carry. This is a two times group one winner already and has beaten sat nav who won the 2000 yesterday and Listen who was fav for the oaks she has serious form on offer the ground should be fine. 28/1 best odds at the moment is mental.