Predicting which way the pendulum will swing longterm

[happygooner]

Can anybody recommend any good literature on learning to read the betfair charts? I know this is possible from reading through maria's ever so looooong thread (all 190 odd pages!) where she likened it to traders who deal on the stock exchange all day. Weight of money has been given as an indicator but this only seems to matter in the short term as it fluctuates back and forth like a yoyo! The minute I lay to a price which is drifting it gets backed in to half that mere minutes before the start of the race:@ I would say around 20-25% of the time I get a better price which drifts and the rest ranges from only just over to grossly so!! The most irritating thing being that these are the horses which have the audacity to win....thus making things particularly difficult:wall Selection criteria is easy so I find but this pricing business is trickier than a rubix cube:\

[Gingertipster]

Re: Predicting which way the pendulum will swing longterm If you learn the table of odds and chances Gooner, you should be able to find the value. ie, a horse at a higher price than it should be, therefore one likely to shorten. Knowing each price as a percentage helps tremendously in profit making. Take a look at my 2000 Guineas write up in my Gingers Winners thread, it shows the prices (worked out to 100%) that I will be trying to beat. Every horse has a price I will back it at. With the Betfair prices divide 1 by each price to find the percentage (of that price) you need to win to make a profit. e.g. 4.00 is 1 divided by 4 = 0.25 = 25% To break even a punter needs to win 25% of his bets at 4.00 (3/1). Therefore he should only back a horse he believes has a 25% of winning if he can get a better price than 4.00 (3/1). Though you also have to take in to account the 5% (or whatever) commission. At the end of the year a good judge will be in profit a bad judge will lose. Any questions please ask. Ginge

[happygooner]

Re: Predicting which way the pendulum will swing longterm

If you learn the table of odds and chances Gooner, you should be able to find the value. ie, a horse at a higher price than it should be, therefore one likely to shorten. Knowing each price as a percentage helps tremendously in profit making. Take a look at my 2000 Guineas write up in my Gingers Winners thread, it shows the prices (worked out to 100%) that I will be trying to beat. Every horse has a price I will back it at. With the Betfair prices divide 1 by each price to find the percentage (of that price) you need to win to make a profit. e.g. 4.00 is 1 divided by 4 = 0.25 = 25% To break even a punter needs to win 25% of his bets at 4.00 (3/1). Therefore he should only back a horse he believes has a 25% of winning if he can get a better price than 4.00 (3/1). Though you also have to take in to account the 5% (or whatever) commission. At the end of the year a good judge will be in profit a bad judge will lose. Any questions please ask. Ginge

Hi Ginge and thanks. Problem i have though is that depending on the sp price should statistically depend on a horses overal likelyhood of winning from the criteria I am using. For example, horses with a 10/1 SP fare around 6-7% (7 wins from 100 bets). This is from over 5 years of historical data and thousands of selections. So you see I don't know the true percentage chance of that horse losing until my bet is on and the SP price is known. If I get 50% right and 50% wrong I should be happy.....ish As of course it will only matter 7 times out of 100 in this example. Overall s/r for odds of between 1/40 & 10/1 should give 87.72% s/r so in fact the price will only matter 12-13% of the time. Sods law being that I had 3 losers today all overpriced which was the difference between a good winning day and a very small loss. This is why I need to learn to read, or at least get a good understanding of, those charts.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Predicting which way the pendulum will swing longterm Of course less than 9% of 10/1 shots win but we are not concerned about all 10/1 shots. We are looking at how many of our bets at 10/1 win. We don't back every 10/1 shot. If we win 11% of our 10/1 bets then we get back £121 for each £100 staked. Nobody knows the true percentage chance, the SP will not even tell you that. Just because a punter gets better than SP does not mean it is true value, it is just better value than SP. Knowing the "table" is no substitute for studying form. If you study a 5 horse race and believe each horse has the same 20% (4/1) chance. 100% divided by 5 = 20%. So we back any horse at better than 4/1. If at the end of the year we have won better than 20% of our 4/1 bets andbetter than 25% of our 3/1 bets etc. Then we can say we got true value.

[billy the punter]

Re: Predicting which way the pendulum will swing longterm I have to agree. My judgement with regards to when to strike is purely down to judgement, and perhaps more importantly experience.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Predicting which way the pendulum will swing longterm Have now put percentages to my prices for the 2000 Guineas so it is easier to follow. Read the form of each horse and compare each price and you should be able to see why one price is say three times the price of the next etc. Ginge

[happygooner]

Re: Predicting which way the pendulum will swing longterm Oh I am sure you both 100% correct. It is simply a selection criteria I have put together on a site called horseracebase which allows me to save the settings and highlights potential selections each day. Therefore in this particular instance I know there are 32,000-33,000 historical selections since 2003 from odds on up to 10/1 SP (what is the largest amount any given racing forecast has been out by when dealing with SP of around 10/1 and under?) giving an overall strike rate of just 12.28% and an awfully large deficit/profit depending on which way you look at it. Of course the system will succeed or die entirely dependent on how well I can judge what is the best price I am likely to attain. So from here I am back to the charts. I am sure everybody has read the maria thread, well I am completely determined to try and find something similar. Many many selections each day exerting a small edge many many times as she was want to say.

[happygooner]

Re: Predicting which way the pendulum will swing longterm

Have now put percentages to my prices for the 2000 Guineas so it is easier to follow. Read the form of each horse and compare each price and you should be able to see why one price is say three times the price of the next etc. Ginge

I'll certainly give it a go. I also did similar when looking at your National write-ups. Unfortunately the National was a complete disaster for me but I won't even go there!

[happygooner]

Re: Predicting which way the pendulum will swing longterm

I have to agree. My judgement with regards to when to strike is purely down to judgement' date=' and perhaps more importantly experience.[/quote'] Shame my judgment is just plain awful really haha! I curse them on there pulling those prices down to half of what I layed:@

[Gingertipster]

Re: Predicting which way the pendulum will swing longterm Can't be done Gooner, without careful study of form you can not hope to find which horses price is too big. Ginge

[happygooner]

Re: Predicting which way the pendulum will swing longterm

Can't be done Gooner, without careful study of form you can not hope to find which horses price is too big. Ginge

Ouch!!!:sad Thanks for being honest anyway. Best I can hope for clearly is to try and lay as close to the off as possible providing it is under my cutoff.

[billy the punter]

Re: Predicting which way the pendulum will swing longterm If I thought something was worth a lay at say 4.8 and I laid it, only to then see it backed into 3.5 I really wouldn't mind that much. I mean, I obviously thought 4.8 was a lay price, so I would be ok. You will always lose the amount you were prepared to with said horse. In such instances there is an arguement for going in again, laying again at the shorter price surely? After all if you wanted to lay 'horse A' at a bigger price, surely you'd want to lay it at the new shorter price? I'm rarely a layer though so you may not agree.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Predicting which way the pendulum will swing longterm Sorry Gooner if it sounded blunt but there is no substitute for studying form. If you are trying to back and lay horses who you hope will shorten (if backing) or lengthen (if laying). I do not see how it can be done without long form study.

[alexpro7]

Re: Predicting which way the pendulum will swing longterm I agree with what has been written. Have you considered using a betting bot ? These give you a good insight into the way the markets move. It will also give you the opportunity to leave bets to be matched at the price you think is acceptable. It all comes back to what you consider value.

[happygooner]

Re: Predicting which way the pendulum will swing longterm

I agree with what has been written. Have you considered using a betting bot ? These give you a good insight into the way the markets move. It will also give you the opportunity to leave bets to be matched at the price you think is acceptable. It all comes back to what you consider value.

As stated earlier I do actually use bettrader at the moment which allows me to set up automated tools for when a bet goes on. How would a betting bot differ from this out of interest?

[happygooner]

Re: Predicting which way the pendulum will swing longterm

If I thought something was worth a lay at say 4.8 and I laid it, only to then see it backed into 3.5 I really wouldn't mind that much. I mean, I obviously thought 4.8 was a lay price, so I would be ok. You will always lose the amount you were prepared to with said horse. In such instances there is an arguement for going in again, laying again at the shorter price surely? After all if you wanted to lay 'horse A' at a bigger price, surely you'd want to lay it at the new shorter price? I'm rarely a layer though so you may not agree.

It all comes down to me being a complete novice where horses are concerned but still seeing potential in following a certain set out criteria. If the system I am selectng against has an 85% s/r for all horses around 3/1-4/1 and I lay a horse at that thinking great.......as soon as the price moves in, statistically it means that against the selection criteria I am following (although not individually), as soon as that horse comes in to say around 2/1 (where the system suggests only an 80% s/r on approx) then that horse has a much bigger chance of winning and thus me losing. Essentially laying a 2/1 horse statistically expected to lose 80 times out of 100 for around 4/1. Those figures are flawed i'm sure but you no doubt get what I mean.

[happygooner]

Re: Predicting which way the pendulum will swing longterm

Sorry Gooner if it sounded blunt but there is no substitute for studying form. If you are trying to back and lay horses who you hope will shorten (if backing) or lengthen (if laying). I do not see how it can be done without long form study.

It must be possible from a mathematician point of view and someone who sits in front of the computer all day looking at charts and patterns to see when the move etc etc.... If you have read the infamous (as I always term it) maria laying thread then this was pretty much what she said. Her knowledge of horses was very limited but everything built from statistics and maths with only the very smallest part of looking at form. There was also a guy who posted on there who said he worked on the stock exchange all day and could read the charts easily. This she said, gave him a huge advantage.

[cavello]

Re: Predicting which way the pendulum will swing longterm I've lost count of the number of times a horse with good solid form(IMO) drifts all morinng till the racecourse market opens and the price quickly drops to something aboput right on the exchanges.. Why is this? Traders and trend followers have caused the drift. Remember you are not buying stocks and shares but betting on a horse race. On one ocassion a horse that should have been 6/4-7./4 drifted to 6/1-7/1 obviously i took advantage. The course market opened and the price on Betfair quickly adjusted. I naturally ensured a profit whatever happened. It won:wall. This occurs quite often bacause the traders are not interested in a horserace:loon

[happygooner]

Re: Predicting which way the pendulum will swing longterm

I've lost count of the number of times a horse with good solid form(IMO) drifts all morinng till the racecourse market opens and the price quickly drops to something aboput right on the exchanges.. Why is this? Traders and trend followers have caused the drift. Remember you are not buying stocks and shares but betting on a horse race. On one ocassion a horse that should have been 6/4-7./4 drifted to 6/1-7/1 obviously i took advantage. The course market opened and the price on Betfair quickly adjusted. I naturally ensured a profit whatever happened. It won:wall. This occurs quite often bacause the traders are not interested in a horserace:loon

Yeah I can see what you mean so in all honesty the best policy if laying on the exchanges with not so much knowledge of horses would be to lay after the course market opens? Even the bookie prices differ wildly until that course market opens so going by that is no good either.

[alexpro7]

Re: Predicting which way the pendulum will swing longterm

As stated earlier I do actually use bettrader at the moment which allows me to set up automated tools for when a bet goes on. How would a betting bot differ from this out of interest?

I use Betangel pro and this has facility to chart prices and also amount of money being gambled on a horse. As someone who does not know a great deal about racing it has been brilliant for me and dare i say it profitable too. You still have to make judgement calls but i started off staking small and built up as my results improved. I rarely do any other type of betting these days and find a good amount of selections to back or trade on. I have never been into laying as i am sure there is more to be made from backing so it may not suit . However it is a great way of earning and learning.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Predicting which way the pendulum will swing longterm

It must be possible from a mathematician point of view and someone who sits in front of the computer all day looking at charts and patterns to see when the move etc etc.... If you have read the infamous (as I always term it) maria laying thread then this was pretty much what she said. Her knowledge of horses was very limited but everything built from statistics and maths with only the very smallest part of looking at form. There was also a guy who posted on there who said he worked on the stock exchange all day and could read the charts easily. This she said, gave him a huge advantage.

Have not read Maria's thread, but I am not a natural layer, prefer backing them. The stock exchange bloke was right. It is very easy to read the charts on the exchanges. But you HAVE TO KNOW THE TABLE OF ODDS AND CHANCES to do so. And to STUDY THE FORM. The two go hand in hand. If a punter doesn't have a clue what (in his opinion) the percentage chance each horse has of winning (and each percentage converted to odds), he has virtually no chance of recognising a good price, whether back or lay. Ginge

[alexpro7]

Re: Predicting which way the pendulum will swing longterm Fair points Ginge. But there are also lots of people who make money on the trading of prices where the result of the race is not important! Being able to predict the movement up or down of prices can be extremely profitable and does not need extensive research and experience of horses. For example a well backed horse will usually give you a run for your money and although it may not win you can trade out in running for a profit. To turn it round for the layers . Horses that like to come from the back (usually Jamie Spencers odd on favs) will drift in running, again allowing opportunity for profit by trading out. Different people like to do different things so it is interesting to learn how others do things.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Predicting which way the pendulum will swing longterm

Fair points Ginge. But there are also lots of people who make money on the trading of prices where the result of the race is not important! Being able to predict the movement up or down of prices can be extremely profitable and does not need extensive research and experience of horses. For example a well backed horse will usually give you a run for your money and although it may not win you can trade out in running for a profit. To turn it round for the layers . Horses that like to come from the back (usually Jamie Spencers odd on favs) will drift in running, again allowing opportunity for profit by trading out. Different people like to do different things so it is interesting to learn how others do things.

Of course if a punter backs a horse at a big price and lays it at shorter it does not matter who wins. But the point is it is impossible to predict the movement up or down without knowing the form. What is and what is not value. The prices go down when (usually) knowledgeable punters believe a price is too big. e.g. If a horse is 5.00 (4/1) on the exchanges. It will only shorten significantly if enough knowledgeable punters believe it has a much better than 20% chance of winning. If enough knowledgeable punters believe it is bad value (a lot less than 20% chance) it is very likely to drift. Mug punters can cause a horse to shorten or drift but there are always likely to be knowledgeable punters who will then recognise a price is not right and force the price back. Therefore to be good at identifying a price which is significantly wrong, a punter must know his form. It used to be the case that punters could back a hold up horse in running at a good price, but there are so many doing this these days, it is difficult to get a good enough price. And you still have to know your form book. One going well out the back who is a doubtful stayer may not be quite the good thing. Where as one pushed along may still come through if it is a "stayer" at the trip. Each individual should be judged on the price available anyway, not just is it the right type of horse. Every horse has a price to back and (if so inclined) to lay, whether a front runner, hold up horse, in running, early price or whatever. But you need to study the form to know what price to take FULL STOP. Ginge

[Gingertipster]

Re: Predicting which way the pendulum will swing longterm Going to stick my neck out here. In the 2:45 Newmarket tomorrow, Harvest Queen is currently 6.00 5/1 Betfair. That looks extremely good value to me. My price to beat is 100/30 (23%). Not saying it will win, I have her as having the third best chance of winning. But 5/1 is worth taking and as long as the going is genuinely no worse than good, the chances are she will start significantly shorter. Where as Passage Of Time I believe is very poor value at 2.42 around 11/8 to 6/4. I expect this one to drift. Heaven Sent looks marginally good value too.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Predicting which way the pendulum will swing longterm

Going to stick my neck out here. In the 2:45 Newmarket tomorrow, Harvest Queen is currently 6.00 5/1 Betfair. That looks extremely good value to me. My price to beat is 100/30 (23%). Not saying it will win, I have her as having the third best chance of winning. But 5/1 is worth taking and as long as the going is genuinely no worse than good, the chances are she will start significantly shorter. Where as Passage Of Time I believe is very poor value at 2.42 around 11/8 to 6/4. I expect this one to drift. Heaven Sent looks marginally good value too.

Harvest Queen came in (a bit) to SP 9/2 2nd. Heaven Sent came in to SP 6/4 1st. Passage Of Time friendless, went out to SP 15/8. Aint I great? :dudeDon't answer that.:lol

[happygooner]

Re: Predicting which way the pendulum will swing longterm All interesting reading. Layed early today as had things to do and prices were ok. Looked at the volumes being traded before deciding enough people felt the price was good enough to take. A flawed view perhaps but i'll keep plugging away. Unfortunately got stung by an 11/1 winner which I got 12.5 on (Incorporation) as well as a perhaps not such good price on Powerberry. Paid the price of laying when there wasn't enough liquidity and took an awful price of 15.00 when the horse came in to 10/1. Gutted!!!:( Fingers crossed for tomorrow...

[Gingertipster]

Re: Predicting which way the pendulum will swing longterm Think if I nominated a lay today it would be Getaway in the 2:40. Seems to be priced up on the Arc run, came from the rear in a very strongly run race (all principals came from the back). Essentially a stayer who is normally held up. If there is not a very good pace here is likely to struggle for speed. There does not look that many natural early pace setters, Dragon Dancer, Tranquil Tiger and Under The Rainbow have are possibly most likely but none need to lead. 7/4 is too short a price for such a horse in the circumstances. Ginge

[Gingertipster]

Re: Predicting which way the pendulum will swing longterm Ooops and Wow in equal amounts. Good job I don't lay horses. Will win top races. Ginge

[mowgli77]

Re: Predicting which way the pendulum will swing longterm

Going to stick my neck out here. In the 2:45 Newmarket tomorrow, Harvest Queen is currently 6.00 5/1 Betfair. That looks extremely good value to me. My price to beat is 100/30 (23%). Not saying it will win, I have her as having the third best chance of winning. But 5/1 is worth taking and as long as the going is genuinely no worse than good, the chances are she will start significantly shorter. Where as Passage Of Time I believe is very poor value at 2.42 around 11/8 to 6/4. I expect this one to drift. Heaven Sent looks marginally good value too.

I had the same thoughts as you regarding that race, didn't fancy Passage of Time at all, I don't lay horses either but probably should have done with this. These 3 all looked to have a good chance but I felt the value was with Harvest Queen, pace of race didn't suit, went off at a crawl and Moore was clever enough to kick on early enough and knew his mount would stay. Harvest Queen probably raced more prominent than it is used to, was in 3rd most of the race but they went that slow its natural travelling speed had it settled there. It will definitely win races this year.

[billy the punter]

Re: Predicting which way the pendulum will swing longterm

I had the same thoughts as you regarding that race' date=' didn't fancy Passage of Time at all, I don't lay horses either but probably should have done with this. These 3 all looked to have a good chance but I felt the value was with Harvest Queen, pace of race didn't suit, went off at a crawl and Moore was clever enough to kick on early enough and knew his mount would stay. Harvest Queen probably raced more prominent than it is used to, was in 3rd most of the race but they went that slow its natural travelling speed had it settled there. It will definitely win races this year.[/quote'] Another factor is that all (bar Heaven Sent) were wrong in their coats. Think most in behind will come on for that - they would need to though.