Folkestone 01/05

[mileni4uk]

2.50 Folkestone - Compton Rose The fav is evens money and this gives some value in the other runners. I'll slide with Compton Rose, who has plenty of winners in her pedigree. Showed enough to suggest she might be a good thing when fifth in 5f maiden at Windsor last summer. Needs to find improvement, but stable had some winners lately and I'll have a go.

[billy the punter]

Re: Folkestone 01/05 Folkstone 5.20

I have a long list of handicappers every year, horses that I believe are well handicapped and will make a mockery of their season starting mark throughout the year. It's me versus the handicapper with these and year in year out these horses make up a huge slice of my profits. I’ve backed quite a few so far this season and managed to get most of them to win. Barring Corrybrough and Bankable I'd say Nutkin is probably the best handicapped horse in training. I backed her LTO and my write-up on her was more like a love letter:

Quote:

...The horse in question is the James Fanshawe filly Nutkin. She was deemed good enough to line up in a Newmarket maiden FTO but showed nothings that day - usual for stable debutants. She could be the typical older horse improver for the yard. She left that run behind on her 2nd start though in a Kempton maiden, finishing 4th of 14 at 50/1, running on strong over the mile trip. The winner that day, Amarna, since then showed form lines of 1121 winning off 90 on his final start. The 2nd (Double Doors) showed 3113 after ending the season on 83. The 3rd (Andmoreagain) won her only start after. The 5th, 6th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th all won at least one race after. These finished the season on marks of 73, 68, 80, 82, 66+, 72, 80 respectively. On this form alone she is a blot on the handicap of 69, remember this was an inadequate trip too. There is bundles of stamina on each side of the family. However there is more, she was upped in trip to 1m2f on her next start on heavy ground - she bolted up beating Maslak (now rated 84), and they were clear on the 3rd. It was no surprise that she went off a short favourite for her final start and handicap debut. She 'flopped' and finished 4th, although she travelled really well. She either didn't have enough experience or she may not be totally straightforward. After all she had to be mounted outside the paddock for that Kempton run. If she is straightforward, which is likely (I'm forgiving her the last run, she has apparently come on this season) then is she as good as you can get to a cert off this mark. It may not be today due to fitness etc but it will be soon. She is high on my horses to follow this season.

She looked the winner (I laid 1.03 in running) that day before getting collared late on by the two gambles Street Life and Ryan's Future - she was beaten only a length into 3rd.

They went off really quick that day and I think Nutkin paid the price for attempting to go with them. Ryan Moore went for her pretty early when the front runners kicked abour 3 out. She went on but like I say was collared very late on. The front two come from well off the pace and Nutkin was the only horse to still be there at the finish from those that were up with the pace.

Street Life and Ryan's Future would never beat her again over the same conditions. The run can be seen as a victory IMO.

The form has been franked too by Ryan's Future (won well NTO) and Street Life (unlucky next twice).

All of the above leads me to believe that I haven't got her wrong and that she will be a filly to follow this season.

She isn't a fantastic price but she is never going to be off this mark. Paradise Dancer would be a danger if this gets tactical and acts with give, as does Kavachi.

Paradise Dancer will lead, I'm just hoping he does so at a fair pace, I don't trust Oscar Urbina if things get trickey you see.

Nutkin 100% of stake 1.98 betfair

Unfortunately Sky Quest is a non-runner. The price above now reads 1.85 with the deductions for the NR.