Lay 0-0 at HT

[Hooloovoo]

Alright, it is time to start another glory hunt! :clap The idea behind this really comes from a post from MadnessTiger and some discussion between him and Turnlux concerning the number of goals in the 2nd half of the match. Poor Turnlux even started a GH of his own regarding this, which failed super-fast. Unlucky there Turnlux. :sad MT has also posted some interesting stats about this in that thread. I'm a bit mathematically challenged, but these are my thoughts about this: About 30% of all football matches is 0-0 at halftime. Out of these matches, about 75% has at least one goal in 2nd half. That means that if I take average translated back odds of 1.33, I will break even. Often there are better odds to get than 1.33, in that case I should be in profit. Obviously if the odds are better than 1.33, than this implies that the particular match has an "higher-than-usual" probability to end 0-0 at FT, and I can't ignore this. What i will do is to be a little more selective in order to overcome this drawback. If I have indications that a match that is 0-0 at HT is "dead" and there seems to be no action at all, then i will not include that particular match. Also I will not be doing any loss recovery. IMHO, loss recovery is pointless. If you have a system that is profitable, it will show profit in the long run. Period. There will always be bad runs, but a profitable system will survive these bad runs, given that the starting bank is big enough. The idea of "recovery bets" is about wanting to "get back on track", which in turn only is a symptom of something that fails many a system: lack of discipline. (Been there, done that) Eventually that "impossible" sequence of loosing bets will destroy your entire bank. (End of mini-speech) :lol I will use a starting bank of 100 (£, points, units, smurfs, whatever), all bets are 10 and with BetFair in-play. An average day there are like 15 inplay matches on BetFair, and 5 of those should be 0-0 at HT, and maybe 3 of these will pass my "is-the-match-dead-or-not" test, so there you have a guesstimate of the number of bets in average each day for this system. Also, because bets will be made in-play, i will only post teams and the lay odds. Converted back odds and sum-ups will be posted later on as time permits. If this fails, i'll blame myself. If it's a success, i'll credit MT and Turnlux for the idea. How about that for a humble approach :lol

[Hooloovoo]

Re: Lay 0-0 at HT Also, this is not a paper trial, there's real money on the line here, as always :loon