turnlux Posted April 27, 2008 Share Posted April 27, 2008 After a brief conversation with Madness about the amount of 2nd half goals vs 1st half goals, I have decided to start a new glory hunt with the view to going 1+ goal more on whatever the score is at half time.;) For eg 0-0 HT - Bet is 1+goal 1-0 HT 2+ goals 2-0 HT 3+ goals and so on. As madness mentioned in his thread this is briefly touched on in Paul Steele's book Profitable Football Betting in which he says:_ "There is a pattern to these results, which would suggest that the more goals in the first half the more there will be in the second. Conversely, the less goals there are in the first half the less there are in the second. This clearly shows the number of second half goals is dependent on the number of first half ones." It's this view i'm going to be betting on. All bets will be taken from Betfair's in-play market and i will start with a £50 start bank, aiming to win 5% of the bank. Where odds allow i will use 2-attempts to recover any losses. Unfortunately i'm off out at 12:@, so most of this will start early this evening but will get it under way with the alaves v elche match this morning. As always all comments, suggestions which might improve this in any way are welcome.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted April 27, 2008 Share Posted April 27, 2008 Re: Total Goals From Half Time Me and my big mouth! :lol Seriously though, it's great to see somebody putting the theory to the test, and even better that it's somebody other than myself should it go wrong! As I mentioned in my own thread, I'll get some figures together to see how well the odds line-up against the probability based on the past data. If it's fairly accurate, I may well use this ploy alone in future '8 Stages of Madness' attempts. Best of luck with this mate, with you all the way :ok MT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turnlux Posted April 27, 2008 Author Share Posted April 27, 2008 Re: Total Goals From Half Time Cheers madness:ok we'll see how it goes from here. Bet 1: Alaves v Elche 2-0 HT 3+ goals @ 1.35 £7.11 to win £2.49 This should be an interesting start, seeing as spanish second is notorious for being an under goals league. So :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted April 27, 2008 Share Posted April 27, 2008 Re: Total Goals From Half Time Me and my big mouth! oops... not the best of starts mate. Good luck with the recorvery bet, do you have the balls to go witht the SPL old-firm match?! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turnlux Posted April 27, 2008 Author Share Posted April 27, 2008 Re: Total Goals From Half Time Cheers madness:ok we'll see how it goes from here. Bet 1: Alaves v Elche 2-0 HT:@ 2-0 FT 3+ goals @ 1.35 £7.11 to win £2.49 This should be an interesting start, seeing as spanish second is notorious for being an under goals league. So :hope Not the best of starts. Wasn't expecting to do a recovery bet at this stage. Bet 2: Gefle v AIK Stockholm 0-1 HT 2+ goals @ 1.29 £42.87 to win £12.43 Could be the quickest end to a GH ever:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted April 27, 2008 Share Posted April 27, 2008 Re: Total Goals From Half Time Good luck with the recovery bet! I am about to start something similar, more info tonight... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turnlux Posted April 27, 2008 Author Share Posted April 27, 2008 Re: Total Goals From Half Time Good luck with the recovery bet! I am about to start something similar, more info tonight... Good luck HooLooVoo, hope you fair better than me.:ok Not the best of starts. Wasn't expecting to do a recovery bet at this stage. Bet 2: Gefle v AIK Stockholm 0-1 HT:@ 0-1FT 2+ goals @ 1.29 £42.87 to win £12.43 Could be the quickest end to a GH ever:lol Wow!!:loon 2 quick losers bring this GH to an end, wasn't expecting that. Must be some kind of a record.:lol need to go away and give this some thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted April 27, 2008 Share Posted April 27, 2008 Re: Total Goals From Half Time Very unlucky there.. I can say it's the quickest end to a GH that I can think of at least! Althought, your recovery bet was on a match with only 1 goal in the first half... maybe you should've waited for a match with at least 2 early goals to bet on. *** HooLooVoo... look forward to seeing your new system also. MT:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted April 27, 2008 Share Posted April 27, 2008 Re: Total Goals From Half Time Sorry for the size of the pasted spreadsheet! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turnlux Posted April 27, 2008 Author Share Posted April 27, 2008 Re: Total Goals From Half Time wow:loon, you did do your research madness!! Looking at those stats then i must have been extremely unlucy to have picked 2 games that were 1-0 at half time and both stayed the same way:wall. Maybe some filtering of leagues woul have to come in to play. It will be interesting to see HooLooVoo's take on this and hopefully a more successful attempt;). It's not been a complete waste of time though as it has planted the seeds of another possible glory hunt i'm considering. Thanks for the info though madness, definately makes interesting reading.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted April 27, 2008 Share Posted April 27, 2008 Re: Total Goals From Half Time No probs fella, Will use the above template to create stats for plenty more leagues soon to see if there are any glaring differences. Just as a note, notice the difference in results when 3 goals are scored in the first half. The 2-1 & 1-2 scorelines produce around 76% chance of 2nd half goals, whereas the 3-0 & 0-3 scorelines boost the chance to ~90% (albeit not so much data to work from) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottyXS Posted April 27, 2008 Share Posted April 27, 2008 Re: Total Goals From Half Time Ouch unlucky there, this one looked promising as well. Look forward to seeing what weird and wonderful system you'll come up with next ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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