Personal Trends

[billy the punter]

Apart from the great discussion and points of view on here, I post on PL primarily to help myself, to refine my gambling. I've always kept a record of bets in the past, so I can see where things could improve. Keeping on one thread, with reasoning is very helpful when checking back. I've been looking over my selections a lot more this season due to this easy access. In the past I've painstakingly gone through all numerous documents only when I've had a bad run. I've looked at them to some extent at the end of each season but with my PL threads I have more details to look over. As I've never had a losing year since doing this full-time I've foolishly not checked over my results enough. I spend around 70 hours a week in front of a laptop so my free-time is at a premium. As a result I've been a little lazy with the result-checking. Like I say, that has all changed due to me having my own thread on here. I'm able to spot strengths and weaknesses a lot easier. It has already led to me branching out in F/C and T/C betting which has been profitable. My hope for the thread was exactly that, to open up specific areas where I excel. My thread contains EVERY race where I have an interest, and is at level stakes. It's very hard to make a profit in such ways without trading in-running (as I do). I've stated on numerous occasions that I 'up-stake' for my prefered races. Even with all this said the thread has been disappointing with regards to profits. Therefore I decided to do some in-depth analysis. My overall stats are: S/R: 30% (35/115) P/L: -37.25pts When breaking these down I found some fascinating results. Heritage Handicaps - 75% (3/4) (my speciality) Claimers/Sellers - 50% (8/16) Class 2 handicaps - 56% (5/9) Class 3 handicaps - 50% (3/6) this wasn't a big surprise, I expect my results to be better in top handicaps. However, I didn't expect my lower handicap record to be so poor: Class 5 & 6 handicaps - 21% (8/39) - a big difference to Class 2 & 3 handicaps - 53% (8/15) I'm no fan of Kempton, but again I didn't expect my form to be so poor there: All Kempton (bar the Heritage H'cap) - 8% (2/24) as opposed to Other four A/W tracks - 44% (18/41) A huge contrast between high and low class handicaps and between Kempton and the other A/W courses. Perhaps due to the difference between Kempton and the others. If I ignore all my Class 6 and Kemtpon bets my overal figures go from S/R: 30% (35/115) P/L: -37.25pts to S/R 39% (31/79) P/L : -6.31pts This is without looking into the Class5 bets, if I did that then the thread would be well into profit. I knew there would be differences with regards to race types but I didn't realise the differences to be this great. By the way, Class 4 was fair to middling, 33% (7/21). It is the same with my Casting Thread too. If I ignore my bets in Class5, Class6 and Kempton races my stats go from S/R : 23% (6/26) P/L : £146.28 to S/R : 35% (6/17) P/L : £1046.28 No surprise that my two winning T/C's so far were in a Class2 and a Class3, profits again would be much greater if I ignored the 'trouble races'. I will be continuing my current threads in the same way although will obviously be treading with caution in the races that have given the problems. I realise this must be very boring to anyone apart from me so I apologise. I just hope it make a little sense to those who cast their eye over my threads. Also I hope this inspires you to check out your own records in order to pinpoint strengths and eradicate weaknesses. Even those who have already done so, perhaps another look could be useful, look at tracks as I've done, or distances maybe. Play to your strengths and leave no stone un-turned.

[brother love]

Re: Personal Trends well done, if only I was to do the same analysis ! its far from boring to read this as in-depth analysis of this kind would certainly pinpoint strong and weak points for us all. will now make the effort to take a look at my recents efforts, which have been "patchy" to say the least !!!! :ok:ok b l