Ayr 19/4/08

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3.40 (Scottish Grand National) Trends for the last ten years:

• · 10/10 had an official handicap rating of 124 or more on the day of the race
• · 10/10 were aged between 7-10
• · 10/10 had placed during the 12 months preceding the race
• · 9/10 had winning form over 3 miles or more previous to the race (Joes Edge the exception)
• · 10/10 finished 6^th or higher on their warm-up run for the race
• · 10/10 were trained in the UK

Take out those that don’t fit the age trend: Opera Mundi, Philson Run, Ossmoses and Strong Resolve. Take out those with an OR less than 124: takes out Iris de Balme, Another Rum, Model Son, Azulejo and Royal Rosa. Take out the two irish trained horses Patsy Hall and In the Loop and take out those with no previous winning form over 3m+ which is Tommy Spar and Openide. Dunbrody Millar hasn’t placed within the last 12 months so is added to the list of casualties and then getting rid of those that didn’t finish at least 6^th last time out takes out Wild Cane Ridge, Mon Mome, Kilbeggan Blade and Irish Wolf. That knocks our list down to six runners, but we can take out three more using less robust trends. Only two of the last ten winners were sent of as favourite for their last run, which is a negative against Miko de Beauchene whilst Halcon Genelaradis may be carrying too much weight as only two of the last ten winners carried more than 11-2. The ground is currently soft, good-soft in places, and that could count against Noir et Vert who has done all of his winning on good or firm ground. That leaves us with a final shortlist of three: Old Benny, Flintoffand Leading Man. Old Benny scored at the Cheltenham festival in a race that threw up subsequent Scottish National Hot Weld last year. Hot Weld won that Cheltenham race in 2006 and so it could prove a good pointer. However, only 2 of the last ten favourites have won this race suggesting it could be worth backing some longer shots each-way. Flintoff was only a length off Miko de Beauchene in a Grade 3 chase at Haydock in September and would relish any further rain. Despite the fact they were closely matched in that encounter, Miko de Beauchene is miles shorter than Venetia Williams’ horse in the betting (6’s as opposed to 20’s). The presence of a useful claimer on board for the race only heightens the appeal of Flintoff even though it races from outside of the handicap. Leading Man too is another very interesting one, given that trainer Ferdy Murphy has an impressive record of 3 wins from the last ten renewals of this race. Like the other two fancied ones, it goes on the ground and fits all of the trends of past winners. 2 pts Old Benny 6/1 (Coral/Lads) 1 pt EW Flintoff 22/1 (Skybet) 1 pt EW Leading Man 16/1 (Blue Sq)

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Re: Ayr 19/4/08 4.50 - Stan - carries a 6 lb penalty tomorrow but clearly in good form as he bids for the hat-trick for this jockey. Ran on well to score at good prices on its last two runs and is proven over trip and on ground. The only question is whether he is up to the task of defying a penalty but three time CD winner Jefetiti races from outside of the handicap so the only other potential threat I anticipate is Andreas, who is back down in grade. However, Stan has recent form behind him so I fancy Coleman to score again on this one. Currently 3.2 on Betfair.