Samba_SamPa Posted April 14, 2008 Share Posted April 14, 2008 Hi all, trying to develop a winning system to make some money from the NBA. Using statistics regarding season performance, recent form [last 10 games] and seasonal H2Hs, I have generated 'spreads' for the Point Spread and the Total Points for each match. Where the lines offered are outside of my spread then that indicates a betting opportunity. I am still working on a suitable staking plan, so for now it will be to level stakes until I can identify the strengths and weaknesses of the system. So, starting with tonight's games and a bank of 100pts... Chicago @ Milwaukee Points spread [Level - MIL by 2] Line Available [CHI +4; 1.91; Expekt] - 1pt staked Total Points [196-204] Line Available [under 205; 1.94; Canbet] - 1pt staked Cleveland @ Philadelphia Points spread [Level - PHI by 1] Line Available [CLE +4.5; 2.00; Pinnacle] - 1pt staked Total Points [183-192] Line Available [within suggested spread] - NO BET San Antonio @ Sacramento Points Spread [sAN by 1 - SAN by 4] Line Available [sAC +4.5; 1.90; vcbet] - 1pt staked Total Points [194-197] Line Available [Over 184.5; 1.90; vcbet] - 1pt staked Indiana @ Washington Points Spread [iND by 2 - WAS by 1] Line Available [iND +5; 1.91; Various] - 1pt staked Total Points [191-204] Line Available [under 207.5; 1.90; Expekt] - 1pt staked Miami @ Toronto Points Spread [TOR by 10 - TOR by 27] Line Available [within suggested spread] - NO BET Total Points [181-186] Line Available [within suggested spread] - NO BET Boston @ NY Knicks Points Spread [bOS by 10 - BOS by 19] Line Available [bOS -6.5; 1.80; Ladbrokes] - 1pt staked Total Points [195-202] Line Available [within suggested spread] - NO BET Houston @ Utah Points Spread [level - UTA by 5] Line Available [HOU +10; 1.91; Stan James] - 1pt staked Total Points [194-195] Line Available [Over 189.5; 1.91; Ladbrokes] - 1pt staked Golden State @ Phoenix Points Spread [GS by 1 - PHE by 3] Line Available [GS +5; 1.91; Paddy Power] - 1pt staked Total Points [217-233] Line Available [within suggested spread] - NO BET Starting Bank - 100pts Staked - 11pts New Bank - 89pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted April 14, 2008 Share Posted April 14, 2008 Re: Samba's NBA System - Paper Trial only I wish you good luck with your selections, Samba SamPa :ok. I´m not really into NBA, but with the European football (soccer) season drawing to a close, I´m on the look-out for alternatives during the summer season. One comment..... I´m always a bit wary of taking H2H´s into account.... I have never managed to successfully use this data for football predictions. Anyway, as I said, good luck ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted April 15, 2008 Author Share Posted April 15, 2008 Re: Samba's NBA System - Paper Trial only Chicago @ Milwaukee 151-135 :loon Points spread [Level - MIL by 2] Line Available [CHI +4; 1.91; Expekt] - 1pt staked Total Points [196-204] Line Available [under 205; 1.94; Canbet] - 1pt staked Cleveland @ Philadelphia 91-90 Points spread [Level - PHI by 1] Line Available [CLE +4.5; 2.00; Pinnacle] - 1pt staked San Antonio @ Sacramento 101-98 Points Spread [sAN by 1 - SAN by 4] Line Available [sAC +4.5; 1.90; vcbet] - 1pt staked Total Points [194-197] Line Available [Over 184.5; 1.90; vcbet] - 1pt staked Indiana @ Washington 110-117 Points Spread [iND by 2 - WAS by 1] Line Available [iND +5; 1.91; Various] - 1pt staked Total Points [191-204] Line Available [under 207.5; 1.90; Expekt] - 1pt staked Miami @ Toronto Boston @ NY Knicks 99-93 Points Spread [bOS by 10 - BOS by 19] Line Available [bOS -6.5; 1.80; Ladbrokes] - 1pt staked :wall Houston @ Utah 96-105 Points Spread [level - UTA by 5] Line Available [HOU +10; 1.91; Stan James] - 1pt staked Total Points [194-195] Line Available [Over 189.5; 1.91; Ladbrokes] - 1pt staked Golden State @ Phoenix 116-122 Points Spread [GS by 1 - PHE by 3] Line Available [GS +5; 1.91; Paddy Power] - 1pt staked :wall Starting Bank - 100pts Staked - 11pts New Bank - 89pts Not exactly a path to riches :lol but a good starting point for refining the system. A small profit from the first 11 selections. Some close shaves too that could have made a big difference to the end result, but that's life. Will post tonight's selections up tonight. Cheers for the best wishes Grex :ok Overall Record Bets 11 Winners 6 Losers 5 Strike Rate 54.55% P/L +0.53pts Staked 11pts Yield +4.82% Average Odds 1.91 Point Spread Record Bets 7 Winners 4 Losers 3 Strike Rate 57.14% P/L +0.72pts Staked 7pts Yield +10.29% Average Odds 1.91 Total Points Record Bets 4 Winners 2 Losers 2 Strike Rate 50% P/L -0.19pts Staked 4pts Yield -4.75% Average Odds 1.91 New Bank 100.53pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted April 15, 2008 Author Share Posted April 15, 2008 Re: Samba's NBA System - Paper Trial only Orlando @ Atalanta Points Spread [ATA by 2 - ORL by 2] Line Available [within suggested spread] - NO BET Total Points [200-202] Line Available [under 205.5pts; 1.91; Ladbrokes] - 1pt Staked Charlotte @ NJ Nets Points Spread [NJ by 1 - CHA by 2] Line Available [Charlotte +4; 1.91; Expekt] - 1pt staked Total Points [203-206] Line Available [under 209.5pts; 1.91; Ladbrokes] - 1pt staked Minnesota @ Detroit Points Spread [DET by 7 - DET by 9] Line Available [Detroit -6.5; 1.91; Paddy Power] - 1pt staked Total Points [189-193] Line Available [Over 185pts; 1.90; Expekt] - 1pt staked LA Clippers @ New Orleans Points Spread [NO by 8 - NO by 12] Line Available [LA Clippers +16; 1.91; Stan James] - 1pt staked Total Points [192-200] Line Available [within suggested spread] - NO BET Memphis @ Portland Points Spread [level - POR by 5] Line Available [Memphis +11.5; 1.87; Ladbrokes] - 1pt staked Total Points [202-207] Line Available [within suggested spread] Sacramento @ LA Lakers Points Spread [LA by 3 - LA by 9] Line Available [sacramento +17.5pts; 1.94; Canbet] - 1pt staked Total Points [209-217] Line Available [under 217.5pts; 1.94; Canbet] - 1pt staked Bank 100.53pts Staked 9pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted April 15, 2008 Share Posted April 15, 2008 Re: Samba's NBA System - Paper Trial only Nice results yesterday.... well done, Samba SamPa :clap Just one question.... are the selected odds the best available? I checked on Pinnacle and, in some cases their odds are better: Charlotte @ NJ Nets Points Spread [NJ by 1 - CHA by 2] Line Available [Charlotte +4; 1.91; Expekt] - 1pt staked Total Points [203-206] Line Available [under 209.5pts; 1.91; Ladbrokes]... Pinnacle 2.00 LA Clippers @ New Orleans Points Spread [NO by 8 - NO by 12] Line Available [LA Clippers +16; 1.91; Stan James]... Pinnacle 1.917 Total Points [192-200] Line Available [within suggested spread] - NO BET Memphis @ Portland Points Spread [level - POR by 5] Line Available [Memphis +11.5; 1.87; Ladbrokes]... Pinnacle 1.877 Total Points [202-207] Line Available [within suggested spread] Sacramento @ LA Lakers Points Spread [LA by 3 - LA by 9] Line Available [sacramento +17.5pts; 1.94; Canbet]... Pinnacle 1.952 Total Points [209-217] Line Available [under 217.5pts; 1.94; Canbet] - 1pt staked Also, if you take the example of Memphis +11.5 @ 1.87 (Ladbrokes) - with Pinnacle, you can get Memphis +10 (which still meets your criteria of "Level - POR by 5") @ 2.12, which is a significant odds advantage. By the way, I have no commercial connection with Pinnacle !!! ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bunnychaser Posted April 15, 2008 Share Posted April 15, 2008 Re: Samba's NBA System - Paper Trial only looks interesting i would love to follow but i havnt got a clue what the betting means or the abreviations you use any chance you could explain ?:wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted April 15, 2008 Author Share Posted April 15, 2008 Re: Samba's NBA System - Paper Trial only looks interesting i would love to follow but i havnt got a clue what the betting means or the abreviations you use any chance you could explain ?:wall Hi Bunnychaser, I will try my best. I will take one of the matches as an example.... Charlotte @ NJ Nets [the game; NJ (New Jersey) at home to Charlotte] Points Spread [NJ by 1 - CHA by 2] [my system calculates that the end result will be somewhere between New Jersey winning by 1pt to Charlotte winning by 2pts] Line Available [Charlotte +4; 1.91; Expekt] - 1pt staked [This is what is available with the bookies, so here: Expekt is the bookmaker, 1.91 is the decimal odds available, and Charlotte receiving a 4pt start is the bet I have struck. I have taken this bet as so long as the outcome comes within the predicted range of outcomes then I will win] Total Points [203-206] [my system calculates that the total number of points scored in the match will be between 203 and 206] Line Available [under 209.5pts; 1.91; Ladbrokes] - 1pt staked [like above, Ladbrokes are offering 1.91 about there being less than 209.5pts, so, if my system is to be correct, i will win the bet] I hope that this explains it for you, although it may well look as clear as mud :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted April 15, 2008 Author Share Posted April 15, 2008 Re: Samba's NBA System - Paper Trial only Nice results yesterday.... well done, Samba SamPa :clap Just one question.... are the selected odds the best available? I checked on Pinnacle and, in some cases their odds are better: Also, if you take the example of Memphis +11.5 @ 1.87 (Ladbrokes) - with Pinnacle, you can get Memphis +10 (which still meets your criteria of "Level - POR by 5") @ 2.12, which is a significant odds advantage. By the way, I have no commercial connection with Pinnacle !!! ;) Thanks for the input, Grex. I used an odds comparison site to see the best odds available, and, thinking back, the Pinnacle column was empty in all the cases. This is probably due to the fact I know Pinnacle are the best for continuously updating their lines, maybe the odds comparison site can't be arrsed with continuously updating what they are offering. Tomorrow I shall check Pinnacle in 'person' :ok Your 2nd point is a good point (as was the 1st ;)) - what I have done so far is look for the line with most 'cushion' from my predicted spread, then taken the best odds available for that line. Also, as of tomorrow, I will source the best odds available outside of my spread. Cherers matey, 4 out of 6 will make me happy tonight, but I am feeling pessimistic with having all the big rags playing for me it seems! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted April 15, 2008 Share Posted April 15, 2008 Re: Samba's NBA System - Paper Trial only Thanks for the constructive response :ok ....... but I am feeling pessimistic with having all the big rags playing for me it seems! Excuse my ignorance.... haven´t got a clue what you mean by "the big rags" :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted April 15, 2008 Author Share Posted April 15, 2008 Re: Samba's NBA System - Paper Trial only Excuse my ignorance.... haven´t got a clue what you mean by "the big rags" :unsure I meant the term 'rag' as in 'big underdog'. LA Clippers, Memphis and Sacramento are all big underdogs, whom I am relying on not to suffer a thrashing. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted April 15, 2008 Share Posted April 15, 2008 Re: Samba's NBA System - Paper Trial only Thanks for the "education" ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted April 16, 2008 Author Share Posted April 16, 2008 Re: Samba's NBA System - Paper Trial only Well... I WAS worried about having the underdogs needing to avoid heavy defeats :( a bad night... but onwards and upwards... And the overtime was cruel in the NJ - Charlotte game, turning 2 winning bets into a loser and a push :cry Orlando @ Atalanta 121-105 Total Points [200-202] Line Available [under 205.5pts; 1.91; Ladbrokes] - 1pt Staked Charlotte @ NJ Nets 108-112 (after overtime :wall) Points Spread [NJ by 1 - CHA by 2] Line Available [Charlotte +4; 1.91; Expekt] - 1pt staked Total Points [203-206] Line Available [under 209.5pts; 1.91; Ladbrokes] - 1pt staked Minnesota @ Detroit 103-115 Points Spread [DET by 7 - DET by 9] Line Available [Detroit -6.5; 1.91; Paddy Power] - 1pt staked Total Points [189-193] Line Available [Over 185pts; 1.90; Expekt] - 1pt staked LA Clippers @ New Orleans 92-114 Points Spread [NO by 8 - NO by 12] Line Available [LA Clippers +16; 1.91; Stan James] - 1pt staked Memphis @ Portland 113-91 Points Spread [level - POR by 5] Line Available [Memphis +11.5; 1.87; Ladbrokes] - 1pt staked Sacramento @ LA Lakers 101-124 Points Spread [LA by 3 - LA by 9] Line Available [sacramento +17.5pts; 1.94; Canbet] - 1pt staked Total Points [209-217] Line Available [under 217.5pts; 1.94; Canbet] - 1pt staked Bank 100.53pts Staked 9pts Overall Record Bets 20 Winners 8 Losers 11 Pushes 1 Strike Rate 42.11% P/L -3.66pts Staked 20pts Yield -18.30% Average Odds 1.91 Point Spread Record Bets 12 Winners 5 Losers 6 Pushes 1 Strike Rate 45.45% P/L -1.37pts Staked 12pts Yield -11.58% Average Odds 1.91 Total Points Record Bets 8 Winners 3 Losers 5 Strike Rate 37.50% P/L -2.29pts Staked 8pts Yield -28.63% Average Odds 1.91 New Bank 96.34pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted April 16, 2008 Author Share Posted April 16, 2008 Re: Samba's NBA System - Paper Trial only Just looking at the Total Points bets, and the record is: 3/3 for 'Over' bets 0/5 for 'Under' bets ...coincidence I am sure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted April 16, 2008 Share Posted April 16, 2008 Re: Samba's NBA System - Paper Trial only Don't worry, Samba..... as you say, you didn't have much luck, and it is still VERY early days. Regarding the anomoly on the Over/Under bets, you can't draw any positive conclusions with such a small sample..... how did they perform on your back-testing ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted April 16, 2008 Author Share Posted April 16, 2008 Re: Samba's NBA System - Paper Trial only This IS my testing :) I am going to back-test the current method, and a possible improvement (to see if it IS an improvement) back over the course of about the last 150 games, depending on my time constraints over the next couple of nights. Findings will be reported :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted April 16, 2008 Author Share Posted April 16, 2008 Re: Samba's NBA System - Paper Trial only A whole lot of games [14] tonight, so to save space I am just going to give the system bets, rather than write my spreads for each match as well. There's 18 bets over the 14 games, but I am toying with a filter to add which would lessen the amount of bets per night, which, obviously, is needed. Just going to backtest for a couple of weeks, but that won't be til tomorrow night as I am busy tonight. Here goes :hope ..... Charlotte - Philadelphia Under 202 pts - 1pt @ 1.91 Pinnacle Orlando - Washington Under 204 pts - 1pt @ 1.92 Pinnacle Cleveland - Detroit No bets Indiana - New York Indiana (-6) - 1pt @ 1.94 canbet Over 201 pts - 1pt @ 1.96 canbet [Other firms have lines ranging from 218.5-222.5, canbet are WAY out :eek] Dallas - New Orleans New Orleans (+8.5pts) - 1pt @ 1.96 canbet Boston - New Jersey Boston (-9.5) - 1pt @ 1.95 Pinnacle Miami - Atlanta No bet Minnesota - Milwaukee Milwaukee (+7.5) - 1pt @ 1.95 Pinnacle Under 218.5 pts - 1pt @ 2.03 Pinnacle Chicago - Toronto Toronto (+6.5) - 1pt @ 1.94 Pinnacle Under 211.5 pts - 1pt @ 1.91 Bet365 Houston - LA Clippers No bet Denver - Memphis Memphis (+15.5) - 1pt @ 1.94 canbet Under 234 pts - 1pt @ 1.91 Bet365 San Antonio - Utah Utah (+4.5) - 1pt @ 1.95 Pinnacle Over 182.5 pts - 1pt @ 1.91 Betfred Phoenix - Portland Portland (+11.5) - 1pt @ 1.91 Paddy Power Under 211.5 pts - 1pt @ 1.91 Bet365 Golden State - Seattle Seattle (+12.5) - 1pt @ 1.83 Extrabet Under 232 pts - 1pt @ 1.95 Pinnacle Bank 96.34pts Staked 18pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted April 17, 2008 Author Share Posted April 17, 2008 Re: Samba's NBA System - Paper Trial only A much better night with 12 winning bets from 18 :clap Charlotte - Philadelphia 115-109 Under 202 pts - 1pt @ 1.91 Pinnacle Orlando - Washington 103-83 Under 204 pts - 1pt @ 1.92 Pinnacle Indiana - New York 132-123 Indiana (-6) - 1pt @ 1.94 canbet Over 201 pts - 1pt @ 1.96 canbet [Other firms have lines ranging from 218.5-222.5, canbet are WAY out :eek] Dallas - New Orleans 111-98 New Orleans (+8.5pts) - 1pt @ 1.96 canbet Boston - New Jersey 105-94 Boston (-9.5) - 1pt @ 1.95 Pinnacle Minnesota - Milwaukee 110-101 Milwaukee (+7.5) - 1pt @ 1.95 Pinnacle Under 218.5 pts - 1pt @ 2.03 Pinnacle Chicago - Toronto 107-97 Toronto (+6.5) - 1pt @ 1.94 Pinnacle Under 211.5 pts - 1pt @ 1.91 Bet365 Denver - Memphis 120-111 Memphis (+15.5) - 1pt @ 1.94 canbet Under 234 pts - 1pt @ 1.91 Bet365 San Antonio - Utah 109-80 Utah (+4.5) - 1pt @ 1.95 Pinnacle Over 182.5 pts - 1pt @ 1.91 Betfred Phoenix - Portland 100-91 Portland (+11.5) - 1pt @ 1.91 Paddy Power Under 211.5 pts - 1pt @ 1.91 Bet365 Golden State - Seattle 121-126 Seattle (+12.5) - 1pt @ 1.83 Extrabet Under 232 pts - 1pt @ 1.95 Pinnacle Bank 96.34pts Staked 18pts Overall Record Bets 38 Winners 20 Losers 17 Pushes 1 Strike Rate 54.05% P/L +1.46pts Staked 38pts Yield +3.84% Average Odds 1.91 Point Spread Record Bets 21 Winners 10 Losers 10 Pushes 1 Strike Rate 50% P/L -0.80pts Staked 21pts Yield -4.00% Average Odds 1.91 Total Points Record Bets 17 Winners 10 Losers 7 Strike Rate 58.82% P/L +2.26pts Staked 17pts Yield +13.29% Average Odds 1.91 New Bank 101.46pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted April 19, 2008 Author Share Posted April 19, 2008 Re: Samba's NBA System - Paper Trial only Missed the earlier games, but here's the 2 remaining for tonight New Orleans - Dallas Points Spread [NO by 1 - DAL by 2] Line Available [Dallas +5; 1.91; Expekt] - 1pt staked Total Point Spread [194-199] Line Available [Over 192 pts; 1.93; Pinnacle] - 1pt staked Houston - Utah Points Spread [uTA by 2 - UTA by 3] Line Available [uTA +1; 1.91; Various] - 1pt staked Total Points Spread [191-196] Line Available [Over 185; 1.97; Pinnacle] - 1pt staked New Bank 101.46pts Staked 4pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.