Kempton Saturday 12/04/08

[billy the punter]

I know it's early, but I've been working on this race for another reason so thought I may as well post it. 3.20 Easter Stakes Although sometimes referred to as a classic trial, it’s an opinion that is very misleading. It has never been any use with regard to clues for Newmarket, many forgotten horses have won this, and only two winners have been placed in the Guineas in twenty years. This has been stressed further still over the past couple of years – since the race has been run on the A/W. I really don’t know what purpose a race on A/W around a bend serves when used as a trial for a straight mile on turf. I’m not saying trials are all important when it comes to the classics but at least some have relevance, Lingfield to Epsom, a prime example. Ok, so we’re not going to see the Guineas winner here but let’s see if we can decipher the winner of this at least. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

Richard Hannon has won this six times from the last fifteen in which he has had a runner. 73% of those fifteen Hannon runners have finished 1-2-3 (11/15), and 93% (14/15) of all Hannon runners have taken home prize money – the only one to fail was 14/1.

He clearly likes this race and obviously his runners in this have to be respected. Trend qualifiers: Eastern Gift, Latin Lad

From the last sixteen runnings of this, of all those that ran at two, 93% (14/15) ran at least three times as a 2yo. Over half the winners ran at least five times as a juvenile, quite unusual for a trial winner.

Trend qualifiers: Eastern Gift, Fool’s Wildcat, Gaspar Van Wittel, Geezers Colours, ll Warrd, Last Of The Line, Latin Lad

It’s usually won by those who just get the mile. Hardly any go on to win over much further. Some go back to sprinting. Interestingly only 6% of the last 16 winners had already won over a mile (1/16).

So we’re looking for someone trying the mile for the first time, but perhaps likely that the trip would be its optimum.

Trend Qualifiers: Eastern Gift, Fool’s Wildcat, Gaspar Van Wittel, Geezers Colours, Il Warrd, Latin Lad, Speedy Dollar

Strangely though in the past 12 years no winner has been sprint bred; the lowest breeding index* has been 7.8f and 83% (10/12) have had an B.I. of 8.5f+

Understandably no winner has been middle distance/staying bred; the highest B.I. has been 9.9f and 75% (9/12) have had a B.I. of under 9.6f. Basically you’re looking for bang on miler when it comes down to breeding. All the last twelve winners had a B.I. between 7.8f and 9.9f.

Trend qualifiers: Eastern Gift, Gaspar Van Wittel, Geezers Colours, Last Of The Line

93% (14/15) of those winners that run at 2yo, lost on their final start. The winner is usually a horse dropping down in class, losing in what is seen as a better race on his final 2yo start. 9 of those 14 horses that lost their final 2yo did lose in a race of better class than this.

Trend qualifiers: Fool’s Wildcat, Gaspar Van Wittel, Il Warrd, Latin Lad. Less so – Eastern Gift, Last Of The Line.

The highest rated are Latin Lad and Gaspar Van Wittel and that is fair, they look the form picks. Latin Lad wanted a mile at least at two, and out of Henando will surely improve for further that that trip this term (entered in The Derby). His form is solid but this trip may be a little on the sharp side. He will no doubt be in the money but may be vulnerable to a pacey finisher.

Gaspar Van Wittel impressed on his first two starts, destroying poor fields with a sharp turn of foot. He was upped in grade for his third start but flopped in the July Stakes. He finished a well-beaten 9^th of 13 there, although would’ve probably finished around 6^th with a clear run. That race worked out really well producing three future Group winners and the 200k Doncaster Sales race winner.

He was upped to 7f next time up and he ran a solid race to finish 7l and sh 3^rd to Ravens Pass and City Affair. He was dropped back to 6f for his final start in the valuable Tattersalls race at Newmarket, he gave weight to most and stayed on well to finish 6^th, showing that he now needs further than that 6f. He has the ideal profile, a busy 2yo campaign, has been campaigning in a higher class and trying the mile for the first time – if he gets the trip then he would take all the beating.

Last Of The Line has 25lb to find on official ratings and looks up against it.

Geezers Colours has been running well but he is in the handicapper’s grip now, maybe that is why connections are going down this route. He is having his 4^th start of the season which is far from ideal, and was running in claimers in November. Exposed and out of his depth.

Hannon’s other runner Eastern Gift comes out best with regards to the trends but has been abandoned by Richard Hughes, who won on him at two, in favour of Latin Lad. He looks to have a bit to find on marks and form at first glance but if you put a line through his last two starts, which I am due to going at Ascot and tactics at Lingfield, then he comes into the equation. He is closely weighted with Gaspar Van Wittel on the Tattersall run at Newmarket and shouldn’t be written off as a second string no hoper.

Fool’s Wildcat, a 100k 2yo purchase, left his old form behind when benefiting from a change of tactics and a pair of blinkers on his 4^th start. He won that maiden by 4l and then wasn’t disgraced when upped in class to a Group 3 on his final start, although did look a horse a little out of depth. He finished close to Eastern Gift on his 2^nd start without blinkers so could reverse that form. He is sprint bred though and the chances of staying this mile is taken on trust. He could get his own way in front though. He may just be outside this class though, he is also entered in a Brighton handicap the following day which is worrying.

Il Warrd’s final 2yo run in the Veuve Cliquot can be ignored. He was given no cover and he failed to settle. The jockey had no choice but to give him his head but he paid the price in the final two furlongs finishing 15l behind the winner. He was an impressive winner at Ascot before that but he took advantage of track bias there and that form has be treated with concern. The stable usually starts firing later in the year and although he is apparently their best 2yo, there are too many question marks about him and his form to back him here.

Speedy Dollar’s maiden form is nothing special and he would have had to improve significantly from two to three to figure here. We've no idea about prices yet, so I'm attempting to estimate the tissue, just for fun, will probably get it terribly wrong. Feel free to do the same if you've been working on the race. Latin Lad 9/4 Gaspar Van Wittel 9/4 Il Warrd 4/1 Speed Dollar 8/1 Eastern Gift 8/1 Fool's Wildcat 10/1 Geezers Colours 14/1 Last Of The Line 25/1 Will confirm selection but I'm 99.9% sure my bet will be backing Gaspar Van Wittel and save on Eastern Gift.

[billy the punter]

Re: Kempton Saturday 12/04/08

We've no idea about prices yet, so I'm attempting to estimate the tissue, just for fun, will probably get it terribly wrong. Feel free to do the same if you've been working on the race. Latin Lad 9/4 Gaspar Van Wittel 9/4 Il Warrd 4/1 Speed Dollar 8/1 Eastern Gift 8/1 Fool's Wildcat 10/1 Geezers Colours 14/1 Last Of The Line 25/1 Will confirm selection but I'm 99.9% sure my bet will be backing Gaspar Van Wittel and save on Eastern Gift.

Racing Post Tissue: Latin Lad 11/4 Gaspar Van Wittel 7/2 Il Warrd 9/2 Speed Dollar 9/2 Fool's Wildcat 6/1 Eastern Gift 10/1 Geezers Colour 10/1 Last Of The Line 50/1 My estimate wasn't a bad effort!