Doncaster Friday 11/04

[bowles10]

4.25 6f event, looking at 3 horses here who have all won off a higher mark than tomorrow. Bo McGinty 1 6f win in 26 races, Good ground 1 win from 19. Been running on the AW & could still surprise at decent odds. Ran well in hgher grade last season Charles Darwin Course from 1 win & 2 seconds from 4 runs at the track. 2 wins from 20 over the distance. All winning form on a sound surface. Didnt win last season but may have been off too high mark & its form from 2006 when beating third set at Ascot is a decent mark. Has to lead from the front. Mr Wolf 5 wins from 25 over 6f. Good form in April 1 win & 2 places from 7 runs. Hasnt won since July 06 & should be noted when running at Pontefract however is now 12lb lower than last win. If the draw plays any part, these are drawn 11,1,2 of 18. Charles Darwin would be my pick but i think the other 2 will also run well. 1. Charles Darwin 16.0 2. Bo McGinty 14.0 3. Mr Wolf 16.5 not much on betfair, & i would expect about 20's for at least one of these selections. Will have EW on all 3.

[mowgli77]

Re: Doncaster Friday 11/04 Bigfanofthat 2.40 Doncaster Drawn 15 of 16 yet still hard to know where stalls advantage is. Will certainly be able to get to the rail from this draw though and should be pace there and fav is drawn next door in 16. Won its debut over 6f on good to firm and I marked it as 1 to follow but then it got injured and has not been out since. Connections feel this is a very decent sort and it has an entry in Irish 2000 Guineas. Should appreciate step up in trip and could go off at a nice each way price. Expected SP in RP is 14-1, I'd be happy with around 10-1. If this really is group class it should be good enough to win a class 4 handicap and should go on good ground. Won't be able to know price until lunch tomorrow so will check if any money for it then. Suggested Bet: 5pts EW at Best Early Price

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Doncaster Friday 11/04 Dnata Flyer 3.15 Been waiting for this to run again. 5th on debut at Catterick a week ago. Held up in handy position but when asked to go, found himself behind a wall of horses. Switched to rail side but blocked again. Finally pulled out round the back and to the other side to get clear run but by this point was far too late. If he'd had a clear run from the get go he'd have been at least involved in the finish.

[billy the punter]

Re: Doncaster Friday 11/04 2.10 I backed Bivouac LTO and I thought he was really unlucky. He didn't get a clear run on the turn after a leader weakened onto him. He acts on turf and despite a harsh 4lb rise (the handicapper obviously thinking the same about his last run) I'm backing him to gain compensation. The extra 1.5f will suit too and it looks as though the yard are coming into form. There is the obvious worry about this being an amateur race but at least we have one of the more experienced riders aboard. Bivouac 100% of stake 2.40 A competitive affair with 9 of the 16 runners winning their last start. Suprising they go 2/1 the field here and I'll be looking for some value elsewhere. Clive Brittain's Khazina impressed me with her debut win. She was easy to back and running over an inadepqute trip, despite this she got up to beat a genuine 70 horse. Given the factors just mentioned and the fact that Clive's runners usually come on for the run, I think she can definitely pick a handicap up, her rating of 72 is fair. This is a tough handicap debut however and her future sucess may lie in an easier race, her price here however is big enough for me to take a chance. Khazani 60% stake win 23 betfair Khazani 40% of stake place 4.5 betfair These are estimated prices, I'm pretty sure this is what I'll be taking, the win price is the current betfair price but there is little money available. Will amend if need be. 5.00 This is a real interesting claimer where most of the field where decent in their day. Boundless Prospect is well in at the weights and although he may be flattered by his current mark he does have a good record at the level. His form in claimers and sellers in the past year reads 3311631. He goes well for kids, 40% of his wins have come when ridden by very inexperienced riders and Nicol Polli has ridden him to vicory twice. Has to be there off 8st6lb. Shot To Fame would canter up on the best of his form but is 9yo now and has proved very hard to win with late in his career. The stable do well when down grading horses to this level and former Group winners have a great record when dropped this low, no matter how long ago it was. He is up against it at the weights however based on his LTO with Boundless Prospect. I thought Alexander Guru was going to go on from his win FTO this season but he has disappointed since. Interesting at the level though and will be a price. Boundless Prospect 65% of stake Shot To Fame 25% of stake Alexander Guru 10% of stake

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Doncaster Friday 11/04 Difficult to asses the draw here and probably wrong to draw too many stand out conclusions but last time here when much softer the far side was favoured however on quicker generally since redevelopment there has not been an obvious clear bias, if anything slightly middle to higher so really no total conclusions from that. 2.40 Mukhber 7/4 var bog 15 pts Looks to concern the first two in the market here and preference for the Gosden horse. Made a good impresssion on debut, green at first and hit big price in running from memory but under relatively easy ride came home late to beat the at times useful looking Irish Mayhem at HQ. Given a mark of 83 and considering how green it was on debut there should be lots more improvement in him with extra experience and on the stands side looks fairly enough treated to go close. 4.25Barney McGrew9/1 cor 7.5 pts e.w Tough race to call, if heavy showers do get into the track then far side will probably be favoured but the cautious approach is one fairly in middle in 7 such as this one who unlike some of the these is going the right way and comes back after awful luck here on its last run last season. Stays slightly further than this as well which should help him pick them up considering the blistering pace of some of these around him, he won twice at the end of last season in similar races before being totally chopped up lto, mark has risen but understandably so and should give a good account of himself for new yard.

[Charlie Wong]

Re: Doncaster Friday 11/04 1.40 AUGUST GALE Yards 3yr olds have been going well recently and this one was a bit unlucky getting collared over 7f at lingfield, should have gained some experience from that run, the Jarvis horse looks the biggest danger. 2.40 SILVER RIME This looks a tough race to call, slight preference for the Hannon horse, the step up to 1m is expected to suit, and has ran in better looking races than this before. 3.50 PUY D'ARNAC has to defy penalty here, but horse is clearly in good form and should go well again.

[billy the punter]

Re: Doncaster Friday 11/04

Khazani 60% stake win 23 betfair Khazani 40% of stake place 4.5 betfair These are estimated prices, I'm pretty sure this is what I'll be taking, the win price is the current betfair price but there is little money available. Will amend if need be.

I average out at 22 (win) and 3.8 (place).

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Doncaster Friday 11/04

Dnata Flyer 3.15 Been waiting for this to run again. 5th on debut at Catterick a week ago. Held up in handy position but when asked to go, found himself behind a wall of horses. Switched to rail side but blocked again. Finally pulled out round the back and to the other side to get clear run but by this point was far too late. If he'd had a clear run from the get go he'd have been at least involved in the finish.

Very disappointing. Second time today for Johnston.

[Charlie Wong]

Re: Doncaster Friday 11/04

3.50 PUY D'ARNAC has to defy penalty here, but horse is clearly in good form and should go well again.

just the one winner, :dude disappointed with the Johnston horse.:$

[billy the punter]

Re: Doncaster Friday 11/04

2.10 I backed Bivouac LTO and I thought he was really unlucky. He didn't get a clear run on the turn after a leader weakened onto him. He acts on turf and despite a harsh 4lb rise (the handicapper obviously thinking the same about his last run) I'm backing him to gain compensation. The extra 1.5f will suit too and it looks as though the yard are coming into form. There is the obvious worry about this being an amateur race but at least we have one of the more experienced riders aboard. Bivouac 100% of stake 2.40 A competitive affair with 9 of the 16 runners winning their last start. Suprising they go 2/1 the field here and I'll be looking for some value elsewhere. Clive Brittain's Khazina impressed me with her debut win. She was easy to back and running over an inadepqute trip, despite this she got up to beat a genuine 70 horse. Given the factors just mentioned and the fact that Clive's runners usually come on for the run, I think she can definitely pick a handicap up, her rating of 72 is fair. This is a tough handicap debut however and her future sucess may lie in an easier race, her price here however is big enough for me to take a chance. Khazani 60% stake win 23 betfair Khazani 40% of stake place 4.5 betfair These are estimated prices, I'm pretty sure this is what I'll be taking, the win price is the current betfair price but there is little money available. Will amend if need be. 5.00 This is a real interesting claimer where most of the field where decent in their day. Boundless Prospect is well in at the weights and although he may be flattered by his current mark he does have a good record at the level. His form in claimers and sellers in the past year reads 3311631. He goes well for kids, 40% of his wins have come when ridden by very inexperienced riders and Nicol Polli has ridden him to vicory twice. Has to be there off 8st6lb. Shot To Fame would canter up on the best of his form but is 9yo now and has proved very hard to win with late in his career. The stable do well when down grading horses to this level and former Group winners have a great record when dropped this low, no matter how long ago it was. He is up against it at the weights however based on his LTO with Boundless Prospect. I thought Alexander Guru was going to go on from his win FTO this season but he has disappointed since. Interesting at the level though and will be a price. Boundless Prospect 65% of stake Shot To Fame 25% of stake Alexander Guru 10% of stake

Bivouac 2nd at 7/1 caught a tartar. The favourite and others were non-runners in the 5.00 which made my stakes looks stupid! :lol My actual bet was something like Boundless Prospect 90%, Alexander Guru 10%. Had to dismiss Shot To Fame due to prices.