AFL Round 4

[Ashtee]

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Round 4 This is probably where I get too reliant on statistics - Last 7 Swannies Eagles games have gone under 15.5. The Eagles team is pretty different from those games though, and I actually get the feeling that the Swans by 1-39 will be a much stronger proposition than just looking for stat history...But then the Swans are stastically stronger at the SCG rather than the squarer ANZ... Continuing on from last week's theme Ash, would Carlton and Collingwood be big enough in your opinion to apply the Derby Dilution factor?

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 4 Usually heaps of dilution in any Carl/Coll clash - not sure what past results actually say though. West Coast are struggling big time for morale and motivation and I don't see them pulling out of it in the short term. Sydney are a 1.17 chance IMO. Cox out, Kerr not at peak fitness.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Round 4 Yeah, intuitively I don't like the U15.5, but over reliance on statistics is a big weakness for me. Stats say 2/10 in the Carl/Coll clash. Of note though was that last weekend most of favourites won by 1-39 in the dilution games (Freo, Adel, Ess) - and even Hawks if you extend it that far. 7 of the past 8 games for Carlton at the G have seen them lose by 1-39 so might look at using the favourite to win by 1-39 in this dilution experiment.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 4 Pool (and beer drinking) night tonight, so gotta leave shortly for that, but I'll have a look through some history later. I wouldn't rule out the either U15.5 yet. It all comes down to price and I seem to recall they've had some close one's in the past, despite at opposite ends of ladder. The 1-24 or 1-39 obviously worth the thought. Just heard pridis out for three weeks.

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Round 4

Pool (and beer drinking) night tonight, so gotta leave shortly for that, but I'll have a look through some history later. I wouldn't rule out the either U15.5 yet. It all comes down to price and I seem to recall they've had some close one's in the past, despite at opposite ends of ladder. The 1-24 or 1-39 obviously worth the thought. Just heard pridis out for three weeks.

Yeah, Cox and Pridis out - there goes my Dreamteam..... :wall

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 4 1.70 for the Doggies is ludicrous!! ...Seriously, it is pretty good! Was certainly expecting more around the 1.40 mark. Dogs are flying...av.57 I50's per game (second to Geelong) and a shot every 1.69 entries (2nd to Hawthorn)...topped 30 shots each game so far, and with the Bombers giving up 58 I50's (second worst to Melbourne!!! ) I'm pretty sure things get nasty here. Bombers were totally outplayed by Carlton last week...51-58 I50's, 29-43 clearances, 109-125 contested possies...just they were MUCH more efficient up forward. Doggies have won last 3 meetings (2006-07) all as solid favs...(in fact fav has won last 10)...and Lucas has kicked 14 in those 3 games... Obviously expecting a high scoring game...expect the total to be ~220 mark, which will be tempting. I always get a bit nervous taking the Doggies as favs (- points), but I do expect them to win at a generous price. Geelong -24.5...Saints over-rated, Geelong...aren't! Saints can't score, just 22 shots last week v. an average Dogs defense. Geelong topped 100 in 9 of last 10...an av. 37 shots, 142 ppg in the Dome since Rd.1 last year!! (in 8 games) Cats won by 60 last season here..."only" 10 more shots, but still... Geelong have won their last 7 games at the Dome by an av. 78 points!!...the lowest being 27. Not totally convinced about the Kangas... ...they can't score either! Just 70 shots in 3 games...a whole 7 more than Melbourne! Forward efficiency of 2.11 is 3rd worst, and they were statistically smashed by the Hawks last week. I guess the good news is that Melbourne are far more like Richmond than Hawthorn! Kangas won by 64 and 1 last season, although the 1 is a bit misleading with 7 more shots and 14 more I50's. Still, Melbourne have played 3 very good teams so far, just not sure the Kangas are that. Pretty sure they win, and probably cover. ...but not all that interested myself. West Coast paying 5.00 for the lowest score of the round... ...Have had 22, 17 and 23 shots so far...last week v. a poor defense in Freo...No Cox, no Priddis...forward efficiency worst in the league (2.40!) had less shots than Melbourne even!! Av. just 72 ppg in their last 5. Somehow last meeting saw a points explosion, depsite just 84 total I50's!!...before that av'd just 71 in their previous 7 meetings... ...and scored just 34 in their last trip to ANZ!! I guess the main worry is a slog down here in Launny... Oh, pretty sure Swans win, but almost impossible to take such a short price given the history of these 2... Now, Brisbane I like too...well, Port I don't like more to the point. The league's second worst D (1.66) might be just what Brisbane need to get moving after playing 3 solid defensive teams. Port won at Brisbane last season, but 3 less shots, 7 less I50's 14 less clearances and 26 less contested possessions!! Crazy numbers really. The Lions have a great record @ AAMI, lost to Adelaide late last year, but before that had won 5 of 9 and not lost by more than 7! (inc. a big win over Port as 2.50 'dogs in 2006) Port still riding last year's hype, Brisbane under-valued off a (predictable ) loss last week at home. I also like the Crows to keep it close on Sunday, but will wait for team news, given their injury concerns from last week. Hawthorn have played 2 bad teams, and struggled to get over the Kanga's last week...Crows on fire, esp. up forward. Crows lost just one game by more than 12 points in their last 10 (33 @ Geelong)...inc. a 3 point loss to Hawks in Melbourne last year. Crows have played 3 games down here, and actually beat Hawthorn by 10 points last trip (2005), but were big favs. Still, Hawthorn have lost their last 2 easily really, and I don't think there's much seperating these 2 teams at the present. Collingwood and Freo both win, although spreads look to be pretty tight in both cases. You'd have to think Collingwood 1.28 is good value against a team that has no idea how to win a game of football!! :spank

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 4 I'd always be nervous about North covering, with that momentum shifting tempo rubbish they continue with. Virtually never won by more than a few goals in '07 up until they had a run of big wins very late.

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: AFL Round 4 It looks to be a pretty straight forward round this week with margin and line betting looking to be the best way of making a dollar. The Bulldogs only need to maintain their present form to wallop the Bombers. The Dogs are kicking big scores and are only missing 4 of their best 22. The Bombers are missing their key forwards and I wouldn't pin my hopes on McPhee, Hille and Laycock to kick a winning score. It'll be interesting to see how the Bombers speedsters cope with the Bulldogs quick ball movement. The Saints face Geelong with only Steven Baker missing from their best 22. Probably the best team they've put on the park for 10 years. Geelong will face their toughest challenge so far and will need to return to their hard-nosed best to beat the Saints. Geelong's record at the Dome is super, but I worry about the Saints fronting up at the Dome for a fourth consecutive week. It can't be good on the legs. It seems like fitness is a concern for the Kangaroos. They've run out of petrol in every game so far and they'll need a four quarter effort to beat Melbourne. Melbourne's skills let them down last week at times when there wasn't that much pressure on. It should be an interesting game, but the Roos should hold on although they need a forward or two to do something. Port returned to form last week even though they didn't get over the line. The hardness was back and their stars fired. Brisbane's forward setup will cause Port problems, but the Lions haven't impressed too much so far. Plenty of their midfielders have been in patchy form so far. Port should chalk up their first victory. The Eagles are losing troops left, right and centre and are already playing injured players to keep their season afloat. Didn't they learn from 2007? The Swans are flying, but they don't play ANZ Stadium that well. They still have a number of players missing, but their youngsters are performing tremendously and should keep piling the pressure on the Eagles and win well. Team Strength and Predictor. Essendon (76%) v W.Bulldogs (83%), W.Bulldogs by 21 points. St.Kilda (95%) v Geelong (83%), Geelong by 36 points. North Melb.(81%) v Melbourne (81%), North Melb. by 13 points. Sydney (76%) v West Coast (78%), Sydney by 18 points. Port Adelaide (91%) v Brisbane (85%), Port Adelaide by 2 points. Suggested Bets. Geelong MARGIN (1-39). W.Bulldogs POINTS (-19.5). Good punting to you all.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 4

Port returned to form last week even though they didn't get over the line. The hardness was back and their stars fired. .

Adelaide had about 13 fit men for most of the last half and Port still couldn't get up! :sad Not sure if we're confusing "hardness" with pure filth either ;) Anyway...talked myself into taking the Crows again this week. (4 from 4)... Griffen, Bassett and Porplyzia all look like playing. Interesting that Bassett was missing from the final last year that the Hawks stormed home to win by 3 points, with Franklin kicking 7 (8?). He looks to be a key component this week. What really got me over the line was all this "Tassie fortress" talk... ...Hawthorn have lost their last 2 down here, and it seems that teams are getting used to the big ground...either from experience, or maybe training simulating...or just good old video... Hawthorn won 5 games in a row from the start of the 2006 season, but had just a 2, 1, 7 -1 and 0 shot margin...they kicked 65-57 (53%) to their opp's 42-71 (37%)! The last 2 games (losses) they've given up 28 and 27 shots @ 28.27! The Crows started in similar fashion...kicked 12.19 (38%) first game here, but 22.14 since @ 61% Amazing really...possibly all quite meaningless, but amazing none-the-less! :lol Ash, I see there's a man with a very similar name, that shares very similar thoughts on "tempo" footy as you do over on BigFooty. ;)

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 4 On the doggies tonight, picking up 1.70 earlier in week - that's gone well! Woof! Woof! Not a member at BigFooty but quite like the site, seeing as it seems quite well run and people are comfortable talking footy rather than just being smart allics. Glad there's someone else who's recognized no team's ever won doing it (Rich-Ess game last year is just one stand out).

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 4

...they kicked 65-57 (53%) to their opp's 42-71 (37%)! The last 2 games (losses) they've given up 28 and 27 shots @ 28.27! The Crows started in similar fashion...kicked 12.19 (38%) first game here, but 22.14 since @ 61% Amazing really...possibly all quite meaningless, but amazing none-the-less! :lol

Possibly all down to those windy surrounds of Tassie.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 4 Pretty sure it was ash38 or something similar...an aggrieved Port supporter... I got 1.68 Wed night...doubled it up with the Pies at 1.28. Woof Woof indeed! :D

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 4 Comment by 'Black 18' from the Port thread - took the words out of my mouth! "Insane use of this tactic, just trying to be so, so clever. It sends out the wrong message, it basically tells the oppositon that "we are scared of you, we are scared that we can't score and you will". There are times it possibly could be used, but it really is a terrible tactic to revert to at the end of every quarter. Take them on, get another goal, that hurts alot more than retreating and looking like fools. And as for Choco's quote "We held it up in the last parts of the quarter, when they had a lot of players in front of us." The man is in denial, he treats supporters like a fool and lives by the notion of "if I say it they will believe". The only reason they had men in front of the ball was because we hold the ball up in the air, we take forever and a day to kick the thing. What does he expect? For the opposition to not go back into defense and force us back even further? Really Choco, use the tactic to satisy your need for tactical nirvana but please don't throw up trash responses to a fair question. It sucks!"

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 4 Big Will! Bit lucky, with dons out of legs. Could see even in first quarter a few dogs looking for the easy way.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 4 Yeah, combination of lack of Bomber legs, and it took 3 quarters to FINALLY get some desperation out there! Might have missed West more than we (I) thought. We stood round and watched far too much, until Cross, Boyd and Hudon a couple of times ran hard and dived full length to win 50/50's in the last. Interesting how you could see it coming tho. I was far more confident at HT last week despite being 6 goals worse off! How was Big Willy's banana?! :tongue2 Will take it...(The win, not the banana)

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 4 1.80 available for under 199.5 Melb/Roos...tempted. Not the greatest day for footy over there I believe... High total no doubt due to Melbourne's non-existant backline, but they have played quite probably the 3 highest scoring teams of 2008. Not one Kangaroos game has topped 50 shots yet (inc. games v. Ess and Rich!), and their scores have been inflated due to some VERY accurate kicking. Kanga's better D than both Dogs and Hawthorn, so 20 shots looks about all Melbourne can expect...Kangas do like to "tempo" it up! :D Only one of the last 7 meetings gone over 200...in a game where Melbourne (as favs) kicked 20.12

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 4 Will be taking Sydney/Eagles under 169.5 (2.15) tho. Maybe an over-reation to last year's shoot-out in Perth...or maybe even Adelaide's 133 point effort, but 21.7?! Come on... WC have topped 169 just once in their last 5 games, thanks to that rediculous Crows effort! Swans have been under this number 2 of 3 this season, and are holding teams to 66 ppg. Eagles just can't score, as mentioned earlier. Before last year's 212 point game (on just 84 I50's remember :D) they had played 9 straight games of 169 or less, and the last 10 have av'd just 150. Obviously the ground's a big factor too. Big and round out at Stadium Oz...4 of last 5 Swans games have gone under this (Av. 157, but 4 were 147 or less!)... ...West Coast have played there twice for games of 109 and 147. Eagles surely know they can't possibly win a shoot-out here, Swans always play it tight, and love running out the clock where-ever possible! Nice number, big price.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 4

1.80 available for under 199.5 Melb/Roos...tempted. Not the greatest day for footy over there I believe... High total no doubt due to Melbourne's non-existant backline, but they have played quite probably the 3 highest scoring teams of 2008. Not one Kangaroos game has topped 50 shots yet (inc. games v. Ess and Rich!), and their scores have been inflated due to some VERY accurate kicking. Kanga's better D than both Dogs and Hawthorn, so 20 shots looks about all Melbourne can expect...Kangas do like to "tempo" it up! :D Only one of the last 7 meetings gone over 200...in a game where Melbourne (as favs) kicked 20.12

Gunna stay under at just a point at a time. :ok:hope

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 4 PORT ADELAIDE v BRISBANE: Port 1-24 @ 3.55 Lasseters Bris 1-24 @ 5.25 Lasseters Stake 60/40% gives a price of 2.12 for under 24.5 I feel Bris will be up for an effort off the last one, with Leigh keeping his gob shut all week and the midfield guns getting more of a run at it. All three under this margin so far, as you'd expect from this club. Port should be desperate but six days off a bruiser and they'll likely play a bit of tempo when ahead, just to ensure things stay close. A good price IMO. As a matter of fact Bris are getting the blows, out to a backable 3.10, and 3.15/3.20 looks likely, which is good. I dare say the usual late money from beer and TV punters chasing the winner, rather than a late out?

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 4 Late move was from Charman being out. Glad I didn't talk myself into the Melbourne under...man, is it gunna be a long season for them!! Giving up 40 shots a game!! Unheard of really, eve in Carlton's run! :D (Where are you Jeffers?!) Sorry, knew of that earlier, should have mentioned. (Charman) Bad start... :(

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 4 Well! ... that was painfull! Spent the whole game having kittens worried Brisbane would win by more than 24. Then had to sit out the mandatory kick after the siren - thought it was through, actually. The eyes had gone really blurry though. :notworthy :gimme Glad Charman didn't play.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 4 Oh man, did you get lucky there!!! lol!!! Not only did you survive the obligitory late kick, but also a thousand easy misses early on... ...not to mention Goal Umpire-gate...which technically/legally was the right call, but we all know common sense says differently... ...and the Travis Johnstone "kick it to me" with 2 seconds left in the half... ...which does lead me to an interesting thought. You (and your name-wielding mate at BF) have your anti-tempo thing....here's mine... ...this handballing to the guy running behind..."releasing" player...WTF??? Now, I've played the game, I understand...if someone is running passed at full speed, great...if someone is heaading off on the angle you want the ball kicked, excellent... ...but this fannying about just to get an extra kick??!!... A lot of the time it results in a rushed/pressured kick, simply because the guy on the mark sees it (clearly!)... ...not to mention players hand it off to a WORSE kick than themselves!!! WHY???!!! Obviously, this is all stemming from the handball to Johnstone **, but as a Doggies kinda guy I see it all to often. Griffen, Cooney...******* anyone...will gladly handball it to Scott West, plodding along onto his right foot, simply because he is there!! My "guess" is that it would happen anywhere between 5-10 (geez, maybe more?) a game that a team is disadvantaged by a player handballing from a stoppage simply for the sake of it. ** I have to (literally) laugh at Trav...I might have mentioned before, but my GF is a Melbourne member, and all of her family are Demons... ...They all LOVED him...She got to the point where she was so frustrated with him that she used to end up laughing every time he got the ball, simply because I did...simply because you just about knew he'd give it away! One of the most over-rated footballers ever...and not because of his no. 1 draft status!!...but the stats clearly prove he is such an unreliable disposer of the ball. Having said all that, he actually GOT a bit of it in the last at lesat...wet helps him out, he can blaze away merrily and look no worse than the rest! :lol: How good was the 'Berger...helped that Brogan was injured, but certainly held his own I would have thought.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 4 Yeah, I'm with ya. I never feel good being on a team that's handballing behind. TBH, I only watched the last quarter, apart from during the breaks in the Sydney game - and that much was painful enough ( totally under seige and witnessed about six missed goals :wall). Port threads over at BF are a laugh and a half. :lol When did Brogan go off? Hall will do well to get just six.

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: AFL Round 4 There have been plenty of talking points out of the round so far. Does Essendon's new style of play impact on all their soft tissue injuries? Why do Kangaroos supporters continually let their team down by not going to games? A pitiful attendance at the MCG today and it is going to cost the Kangaroos big dollars to cover expenses. Alot of West Coast players are now being exposed as average players with Cousins and Judd gone. How long will Barry Hall be suspended for? What has gone wrong with Port Adelaide? Plus, we still have 3 games to go. The game in Launceston is the match of the round. We know that it should be close and alot hinges on any late changes. It looks likely that Mitchell and Boyle will miss for the Hawks with Clarke and Williams coming in. The Crows have doubts on Porplyzia and Bassett. The Crows have a great record after showdowns with a 15-6 win-loss record and 8-3 on the road. It's very much a 50/50 game and the current prices suggest that the Crows are super value. Clearances will be key to this contest with Hawthorn being the one of the best so far and the Crows being one of the worst to this stage. I'll tip the Hawks in a thriller. The Magpies will comfortably handle the Blues at the MCG in a similar fashion to the way they beat the Tigers last week. It should be entertaining with plenty of goals to be kicked. I fancy Rocca and Didak will have a day out. The Tigers head to Perth and have a habit of making the Dockers work hard for their victories. Richmond have enough dangerous forwards to make life interesting for Freo's defence, but they need to find some consistency. The Dockers need to nail these games if they are to feature in September. Team Strength and Predictor. Hawthorn (81%) v Adelaide (81%), Hawthorn by 3 points. Carlton (83%) v Collingwood (90%), Collingwood by 26 points. Fremantle (79%) v Richmond (77%), Fremantle by 27 points. Suggested Bet. Fremantle MARGIN (1-39).

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 4 Hey, those 6 (15 even! :D) misses got my under home... ...didn't take WC for the lowest score due to Melbourne and the Tassie game, obviously regretting that already...but te 2.15 winner helps! Not sure if Brogan actually went off for good...saw he had a thigh (?) heavily strapped, and wasn't moving great, but played out the game I believe. (Had a couple of Carona's ;)) Barry Hall!!!!...Go lord...one of the best...THE BEST left hoooks yet seen on Australian soil! :notworthy ...Clearly frustrated he missed the straight right... ...honestly, I shudder to think! Bad record...carried on afterwards even...we've seen 6 recently for head high contact... ...just about has to be 8 these days doesn't it?! :\ (I remember when that would have been a standard 4...3 with a clean sheet...but intentional? er, yep...head high? Well, chin...Contact? You'd have to say fairly major...who knows!)

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 4

T Why do Kangaroos supporters continually let their team down by not going to games? A pitiful attendance at the MCG today and it is going to cost the Kangaroos big dollars to cover expenses.

They had the bye.

What has gone wrong with Port Adelaide?

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 4 Pretty sure the rain had a fair bit to do with it...Brisbane's skill level was terrible...the wet ball brought Port back to their level, and Brisbane were more desperate in the packs. BUT, I can't help but think last week's Showdown might have been a factor. Making me nervous about the Crows today... Weather here is ok. Some clouds building up, but don't reckon there's any rain about. No wind at all...definately none of that world famous tricky wind, that's for sure. Should be a good game either way...and close...I hope! (Would love the Crows to win tho, surely not many people tipped both Brisbane and Adelaide?)

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 4 lol @ Sportsbet Australia... Barry's Ban Under 6.5 Weeks 1.90 Over 6.5 Weeks 1.90 Good chance for the boys on the panel to make some extra $$... (I think I like the over... won't be less than 6 you wouldn't think.)

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 4 Mitchell, Boyle OUT. Williams, Clarke IN