Best Bet of the day Weds 9th April

[bowles10]

Bath 3.40 been looking at Gracechurch in this event, hasnt won for 2 years on the flat having won here in April 2006, it's 1st time up record reads 2-1-0 & its still only a 5yo. Has been hurdling & not really performed however it runs off 53 tomorrow & its last win was off 79. Going to leave in a small ew bet on this one. 15.5 on Betfair to win 4.2 for a place

[Rainbow]

Re: Best Bet of the day Weds 9th April my best bet of the day would be fabulous jet 250 lud. i know he high in the weights, but not much depth to this race. i think the little break will see him refreshed and i take him to make all.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Best Bet of the day Weds 9th April WOTCHALIKE 3.30 Towcester. LAY. (Racing Post SP 4-1). Opposable as only ever won 3 times in 45 lifetime starts, and has never won two on the spin. OK, he can win this race, but not the best stats to be backed at 4-1, and with several better weighted opponents to contend with, with ability to go well, he'd be a lay in my eyes.

[TheRat]

Re: Best Bet of the day Weds 9th April 4.10 Bugsy's Boy WIN. This is a pretty poor race, a lot of the horses are out of the handicap, on poor form or haven't run for a while. The odd ones out really are the selection and Kings Fable. Up 7lbs for latest sucess, won confortably LTO though, and still looks in with a shout, and should complete a hattrick under these conditions (going won on LTO and distance fine). Kins Fable has just been announced as a non runner which solidifies Bugsys Boys claims even further.

[BillyHills]

Re: Best Bet of the day Weds 9th April 420 Ludlow: Sainte Kadette EW Good race this, the RP had Saint Kadette 13/8 fav which was a joke anyway but now you can get 9/2 whch makes it a very different proposition and a bet to nothing. The money has come for the Henderson horse on his debut and Sharp Dresser who won last time but hasnt achieved anything like my selection. Good runs behind Francheok and Crack Away Jack are good enough for me.

[Cassius Marcellus]

Re: Best Bet of the day Weds 9th April I was going to NAP Bugsys Boy, but Ratty beat me to it. So...I'll go for this instead. 4-30 Towcester - Dancing Dasi - 1 point LAY @ 4/5 If this was a handicap, would be giving A.P.s mount 10 pounds. They are racing off level weights with DDs jockey claiming 5. That makes Tizzy Blue 15 pounds worse off than in a handicap. Llewellyn only has two runners here today (the other one has no chance) and despite the weight difference, Tizzy Blue is only 4/1 to win this (5.3 on Betfair) If they are both going for it over the last two, in the slog up the hill, I expect the strength of McCoy to get Tizzy Blue home in front of the favourite. But at 4/5, I'd rather lay the 'jolly' than back McCoy. Good luck to all :ok

[TheRat]

Re: Best Bet of the day Weds 9th April

I was going to NAP Bugsys Boy' date= but Ratty beat me to it.

:lol Two people can NAP the same horse.

[billy the punter]

Re: Best Bet of the day Weds 9th April 3.40 Bath Merrymadcap is sure to be popular here, he usually runs in a higher grade (last two runs in Class6 were over 2 years ago, he won them both) and is 8lb lower on turf than he is on the A/W. I'm not sure this makes him well treated however as there is a simple reason for the difference in marks. He isn't as good on turf. Simple as. He has a 3% S/R (1/29) on grass but a 19% S/R (4/21) on dirt. It is the same with placed efforts; 21% (6/28) on grass opposed to 41% (7/17) on dirt. More importantly this isn't the first time he has run off a lower turf mark. In 2005 he failed to take advantage of a 4lb lower turf rating after running well on the A/W and in 2006 he failed to take advantage of a 7lb lower turf mark three times and later a 4lb lower mark. It happened again last a May once or twice here and he again failed to make his lenient turf mark pay. I'm not saying he cannot win, I'm saying he isn't as well in as it looks with the lower turf rating concept. That isn't reason enough for him to win. The above proves that. He clearly is inferior on turf, he may not be 8lb inferior but I'm taking him on at the price anyway. I'm not keen on the jockey booking either. Also, although he has run many times on the dirt, connections have never raced him at Southwell and his only flat win was on firm ground. Today's good to soft ground is another negative. Our Kes is another who runs off a lower rating as it's turf, for me it's a similar story. She has been unplaced 10 ten times from 12 turf starts and over 75% of her starts have been on the dirt. Also only 3 of her 49 career runs have been on an easy surface. Far from ideal here. Ryan's Future is sure to be favourite. He was subject of support LTO and only narrowly went down to Street Life. He will be popular again as he runs off just 56 here, was off 85 last October and shaped as if coming back to form LTO, although he may be flattered by that run, the leaders went off far too quick. Conditions ideal. April The Second was due to run in that race but she played up at the start and was withdrawn. He ran well on his handicap debut and could come on for that. Closely weighted with Ryan's Future on that run and could be value, his behaviour at the start will have to be monitored though. Gracechurch is another that has really come down the weights. However he hasn't shown a lot ater a 5 month break last summer. He is well handicapped on past form but I'd like to see him show a little more and imply he still has some ability, before I backed him, even off this low mark. Classic Blue is lightly raced, clearly hard to train, been off for 68 days again. He looks held by Mandalay Prince and is an unknown quantity on turf. 1lb out the handicap and being ridden by Paul Eddery are other concerns. Altos Reales is interesting, but is a bit quirky and probably wants a little further. Mandalay Prince is a horse that I've been waiting for. He is a horse I believe Willie Musson will win a flat handicap or two with this season. He ran a cracker last July to win a competitve Goodwood handicap on GS over this trip. He flopped NTO suffering with the lack of pace but then continued to disappoint on the A/W. He dropped down the weights a little and his form returned. He won well over 1m4f at Wolverhampton, although his head carriage was far from ideal. His run LTO can be totally ignored, he ran off a 8lb higher (same mark today), but there was no pace and he was ridden more prominently than ideal. His inexperinced rider lost her pitch, failed to get a run and got him going far too late - he ran on well beaten less than 3 lengths. Prince Rossie went off a million miles an hour LTO so hopefully pace won't be a problem today. If his attitude is ok (no headgear yet so yard must be happy), then he must surely win a race or two for his shrewd trainer this season. He may be better suited to 1m4f though. Stable trained Ryan Future's victor LTO. Cheomando left his old form behind LTO albeit in an amateur race. He could find a weak race soon. Mandalay Prince - e/w

[Pumpit]

Re: Best Bet of the day Weds 9th April Lay Front Of House 5.20pm Ludlow This race is full of to many that we know naff all about but i think some will step up today,the fav is good on the last outing but horse racing aint that simple as to turn up and win on the day and today things dont look straight forward for me to be backing this good thing so its lay for the day for me. Good luck all today.:ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: Best Bet of the day Weds 9th April 4.40 Bath - Digital Performed fantastically well off this mark with a 2nd at Kempton lto. Running with 7lbs claimer definitely puts him in a leading position. A good price and has to be with a chance.

[fintron]

Re: Best Bet of the day Weds 9th April My best bet of the day - Bugsy's Boy (4.10). Won at a good price for me over similar trip to this at Wolverhampton and then carried that form onto the turf with a good win at Pontrefract LTO on this going when keeping on well at the end. Nothing else in the field ticks as many of the boxes as this one. (11/8 Bet 365 BOG)

[PL_Crewman]

Re: Best Bet of the day Weds 9th April Kempton 8:50 Greystroke Prince Has two second placed runs from two tries on the all weather, Lingfield and Wolverhampton. His efforts on turf have not been so well, just 6-4-7-10. This first time out at Kempton should be suitable as it has only been an all weather surface where he's managed to get a chance for a win. It also shows a wide margin of improvement between turf and all weather so I really think a win is very likely this time around. Trainer W R Swinburn is in very good form, 1-3-4-2-1 from 5 of the last 6 runners - 3-2-1 with 7f runners. Swinburn had jockey Adam Kirby on 4 of the last 6 getting runnners to finish 2-4-2-1. 10pts win @ 15-8 Betfred

[Boulder5111]

Re: Best Bet of the day Weds 9th April L4.50 Bishops Bridge 1pt Win Has been competing in a higher class than this and looks like its been given a rest to freshen up. Has good form after a break in the past and the jockey would be one of the stronger ones amongst those at the head of the market. Also seems to prefer going right handed which will be in its favour.

[Cassius Marcellus]

Re: Best Bet of the day Weds 9th April

:lol Two people can NAP the same horse.

I try not to copy anybody elses selection if I can help it. Glad you beat me to it now. :ok All going extremely well these last few days but I'll get a day that will go pear shaped soon :cry

[jtw1]

Re: Best Bet of the day Weds 9th April 8.50 Kempton ------------- LITTLE TOTO - Interesting to see that E AHERN is booked to ride this 3 y-old considering the fact that the jockey has a 50% [3/6] record on that age group fro the stable. 3rd when 3/1 co-fav LTO after a 4 month break was a decent run over a furlong further than tonights race especially when the first 2 had the advantage of a previous outing.

[mowgli77]

Re: Best Bet of the day Weds 9th April Dance The Star 7.50 Kempton (Each Way) I'm backing this based on price more than anything else. There are 3 unraced horses in the field and prices are 11-4, 6-1 and 33-1. Johnstones horse has attracted money but Always Cruising attracted plenty of cash at Donny the other week and was hopeless on its debut. RP had expected SP of this as around 10-1, it's 33-1 with some bookies and I just took 55's and 8.4 on Betfair win and place. Out of decent dirt horses so interesting that it makes debut on all weather. Trainers record with 3 year olds in 2007 was pretty good. Worth small interest at the price, those that have run don't look anything special and those unraced could be anything.

[fintron]

Re: Best Bet of the day Weds 9th April

Kempton 8:50 Greystroke Prince Has two second placed runs from two tries on the all weather, Lingfield and Wolverhampton. His efforts on turf have not been so well, just 6-4-7-10. This first time out at Kempton should be suitable as it has only been an all weather surface where he's managed to get a chance for a win. It also shows a wide margin of improvement between turf and all weather so I really think a win is very likely this time around. Trainer W R Swinburn is in very good form, 1-3-4-2-1 from 5 of the last 6 runners - 3-2-1 with 7f runners. Swinburn had jockey Adam Kirby on 4 of the last 6 getting runnners to finish 2-4-2-1. 10pts win @ 15-8 Betfred

:clap backed into evens and won by 2 lenths in the end.

[TheRat]

Re: Best Bet of the day Weds 9th April

I try not to copy anybody elses selection if I can help it. Glad you beat me to it now. :ok All going extremely well these last few days but I'll get a day that will go pear shaped soon :cry

I bet you're glad now!! Hindsight! Not copying though if you happen to share the same opinion. To me, if someone agrees it makes me happy and confirms my selection in a way, as im not the onlt pricks that fancies it!