Countdown to the classics

[bowles10]

This is the time of year when you start putting together your knowledge for the first few classics of the season, 1000 Guineas & 2000 Guineas are in early May quickly followed 4 weeks later by the Derby & the Oaks. In here i intend to gather as much info from the trial races as possible in order to provide our members with as much information as possible. Join in if you have any detail to add.

[bowles10]

Re: Countdown to the classics James Fanshawe was out on the Newmarket gallops on Monday with 1000 Guineas favourite Spacious working under Jamie Spencer, with the trainer reporting: "Spacious, ridden by Jamie Spencer, worked with Cesare (Mark Denaro) and both of them worked nicely. Jamie felt Spacious had come on since he last rode her." Sir Gerry also pleased connections. Fanshawe said: "Sir Gerry was ridden by Oscar Urbina and worked over a mile with a lead horse. Oscar was very happy with the way he relaxed in his work and he picked up nicely." Dermot Weld has got his season off to a flying start and saddled a 118-1 treble at Leopardstown on Sunday that included wins in both the Group Three Guineas Trials. Carribean Sunset landed the 1000 Guineas Trial over seven furlongs, fighting out the finish with Halfway To Heaven to get up by a head. Weld said of the Danehill Dancer filly: "Her run at Cork last time was in very deep ground and that's obviously brought her on. We'll now be looking at the Irish 1,000 Guineas for her next run." She has been cut to 25-1 for the Classic Dual Group One winner Saoirse Abu was third, with Kevin Manning noting: "She was very fresh and got very buzzy down at the start. I'll be surprised if you don't see a very different filly when she runs next." Aidan O'Brien's Psalm had her saddle slip soon after the start and she could finish only seventh. Juddmonte homebred Famous Name was rather more impressive in the 2,000 Guineas Trial Stakes over a mile and he can improve further. Weld said of the Dansili colt: "He has developed into a bull of a colt and he is very smart. He was about 15kg over his optimum racing weight today, so he should come on well for the run. He could go for the Irish 2000 Guineas or the French Guineas depending on what his owner wants to do and I could see him staying a mile and a quarter, and possibly further." The form compliments Ballydoyle's Jupiter Pluvius, who was firmly in control when beating Famous Name in the Group Three Killavullan Stakes last term. Weld also struck with Unwritten Rule, who beat O'Brien's well=touted Derby hope Washington Irving. The pair are likely to meet again in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial. Sheikh Mohammed's homebred three-year-old filly Antiquities (Kaldounevees - Historian, by Pennekamp) made her debut in the 16 runner maiden over 10f at Longchamp on Sunday and put in a stunning winning performance, surging clear from second place in the straight to beat Moonlight Danceuse by six lengths. Antiquities is out of the Listed winner Historian, a half sister to Street Cry and and to Helsinki, Shamardal's dam. Horses listed above/target race/current odds Spacious - 1000 Guineas - 8/1 Corals Sir Gerry - 2000 Guineas - 50/1 Tote Caribbean Sunset - irish 1000 Guineas - ?? Saorise Abu - 1000 Guineas - 33/1 Bluesq Psalm - 1000 Guineas - 20/1 Tote Famous Name - 2000 Guineas - 25/1 Tote Jupiter Pluvius - 2000 Guineas - 12/1 Ladbrokes Unwritten Rule - ?? Washington Irving - Derby - 16/1 Ladbrokes Antiquities - ??

[Woodie]

Re: Countdown to the classics Jupitar Pluvias is the one I'm keen on at the moment heard he will go straight to the 2000. Any news on henry the navigator? seems to be the forgotten horse has his injury gone now? form looks solid..

[bowles10]

Re: Countdown to the classics

Jupitar Pluvias is the one I'm keen on at the moment heard he will go straight to the 2000. Any news on henry the navigator? seems to be the forgotten horse has his injury gone now? form looks solid..

Henrythenavigator will need Good Ground whatever as it disappointed twice on soft last season. New Approach beat it LTO & they go 5/2 New Approach & as big as 20/1 for Henry! I was really hoping Winker Watson could win the 2000, it showed a great trun of foot to win LTO when falling out of the stalls but its not bred to get 1m, although they think it will, as it can be held up & then have a burst of speed at the end of the race which counts in the Guineas. I also wonder if Fast Company will become the Godolphin hope for the race after its 2nd to New Approach in the Dewhurst in October. You can get 12's with Bluesq (as low as 8's)

[NewPunter]

Re: Countdown to the classics Listens out! Just seen the headlines on the racing post, have to wait for mine to come through the door to find out more

[alexmac]

Re: Countdown to the classics

LISTEN, who has been disputing favouritism for the Stanjamesuk.com 1,000 Guineas, will miss the Newmarket Classic because of a setback and, according to trainer Aidan O'Brien, the daughter of Sadler's Wells is "unlikely" to make the Juddmonte Oaks for which she has been outright favourite. The filly was slightly stiff when setting off on a canter on Monday morning and after being examined by vet John Halley the decision was taken to give her a month off. O'Brien said: "That means she will miss the 1,000 Guineas and, as she won't be going to Newmarket, it is unlikely that she will make the Oaks. Hopefully, we will have her back for the second half of the season."

Good news for those of us who have backed Muthabara ante-post, now she is favourite...

[Woodie]

Re: Countdown to the classics As for Henry I think this could run a big race if running This was aidens no 1 2yr old at one stage and as you say bowles lost his last 2 runs on ground that was not suited. Been of the course since August had a slight injury I heard would like to see him have a prep for this but if turning up could be the "dark horse" was around 50s last night on betfair now someone has taking that and is 40s. Interesting to see. I wouldn't want to back Fast company on anything better than firm ground tbh. New Approach slight drift in the market you don't know if he's trained on or going to turn up looked to have a hard race in the dehurst. I'd only back this one on the day of the race if he's a runner.. As for the 1000 at this time I have already backed Sense of Joy at around 16s although I now think she is more of an oaks filly. Can't understand this gamble on Muthabara at this stage...

[youngveteran]

Re: Countdown to the classics This year i be backing the following Laurendean Gale - Filly bought for goldolphin out the chapple-hyam yard looks promising this year. 20/1 paddy power Spacious - Alot of hype around this filly this year, James Fanshaw queitly fancies this filly. 8/1 coral 2000 Winker Watson - Showed real impressive speed last year will only imrpove with age. 12/1 coral Strike the deal - read a write about this colt and trainer Jeremy Noseda could have him ready for this. 66/1 - ladbrokes

[divot2583]

Re: Countdown to the classics I keep niggling away at Washington Irving in the derby as i was told that the horse was a little on the porky side on sunday and would indeed need the run i keep having my spare tenners on to build up a nice trading out position because i think the horse is crying out for the extra 2 furlongs and when he wins his intended prep race which i believe will be the derrinstown he will be a damn sight shorter than the 16s with ladbrokes

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Countdown to the classics I had a bit on Savethisdanceforme for the 1000 Guineas @ 20/1 just before its second in a Group 3 two weeks back in awful conditions when with 2 pounds overweight it was just beaten on the line. I think you can still get it and its a bit of a longshot but suddenly it looks one of the stables main string with Kitty Matcham and Psalm. It raced a lot last year and initially was disappointing but it, much like Peeping Fawn at 3, found its form after a few runs, a bit behind the best in a group 1 in Longchamp but still an encouraging run and then it thrashed a listed field by 9 lengths and the horse it beat had beaten Curtain Call (fancied by some for the derby, a group 2 winner, a horse who pushed New Approach and was only 4/1 for a the Racing Post Trophy last year.) I think of the others at the top of the market I like the speedy Natagora the best. She won the group 1 last year (6f) when miles clear of the third, a mile will probably be its optimum trip but it would not be something that would be impossible to get. Many of the others at the top of the market such as Muthabara, Sense of Joy, Spacious and Cape Amber who are all unbeaten merit obvious respect and are open to obvious improvement all being pretty lightly raced but they seem a little short to me on what they have actually achieved so far. In the 2000 Guineas, I had a bit on for an outsider Atlantic Sport @ 210 last year after its 'disappointing' run behind Mccartney when 5/2 at Donc in the Champagne which proved to be the ultimate guide for this race last year. He created a good impression when he battled to a narrow but slightly cosy short head when on debut, if a short head win could ever be cosy, the top 3 were a long way clear that day and the second, Skadrak is entered on Fri. so will be worth looking at then. I say its midfield run lto was disappointing as it did create a really good impression on debut and high expectations were expected, on bare figures it improved that day but on formlines with the winner and the top colts last year it has it to find big time. However it has reportedly 'wintered magnificently' and Channon reported two weeks back it would be ready for one of the trials and it may be one of the better outsiders if it does make improvement hoped for like its half brother, Zafeen did. Of those at the top of the market, New Approach is clearly the standard bearer although its Dewhurst win, despite showing terrific battling qualities, opened slight questions as clearly it was under pressure from a long way out and needed all of th 7f, the step up, eventually to the Derby distance surely will suit. Fast Company created a good impression at York and then again in the Dewhurst despite being unable to go with the early pace however reportedly it has not shown that well with Godolphin who seem to favour Ibn Khaldun again who was impressive as last year went on. Ravens Pass was awesome at san. and the form of the horses it thrased worked out, it probably travelled the best in the dewhurst but could not quite pick up on the ground that day, quicker the better seemingly.

[jcosgrove]

Re: Countdown to the classics is this the wrong place to ask for any trends for the guineas races ?

[Woodie]

Re: Countdown to the classics

is this the wrong place to ask for any trends for the guineas races ?

Not at all.. Just found these with a quick google search for the 2000. Will try and find the 1000

• 9/10 – Won their previous race
• 9/10 – Returned at 10/1 or less
• 7/10 – Won on their seasonal reappearance
• 6/10 – Favourites that finished unplaced
• 6/10 – Drawn in a double figure stall
• 5/10 – Trained in Ireland, including 4 of the last 5
• 3/10 – Ran at Newmarket in their previous race
• 3/10 – Amount of times trainers Aiden O’Brien and Sir Michael Stoute have won the race
• 1/10 – Winning favourite

[Billboard]

Re: Countdown to the classics

Not at all.. Just found these with a quick google search for the 2000. Will try and find the 1000

• 9/10 – Won their previous race
• 9/10 – Returned at 10/1 or less
• 7/10 – Won on their seasonal reappearance
• 6/10 – Favourites that finished unplaced
• 6/10 – Drawn in a double figure stall
• 5/10 – Trained in Ireland, including 4 of the last 5
• 3/10 – Ran at Newmarket in their previous race
• 3/10 – Amount of times trainers Aiden O’Brien and Sir Michael Stoute have won the race
• 1/10 – Winning favourite

Woody....would the previous run at Newamrket look towards the Dewhurst?

[bowles10]

Re: Countdown to the classics These are my trends from last year 1/11 Fav 9/11 SP between 7/2 - 11/1 9/11 Winner LTO (other 1 was 2nd) 8/11 Season debut 10/11 2 or more runs 4/11 Distance winner 4/11 Course winner Cockney Rebels win last year @ 25/1 altered the SP trend & also the winner LTO figure, so last year was it a freak result or just the fact that it was via a lesser known trainer G Huffer? The 2 or more runs looks a stat to use firstly & then 1st LTO, Course winner at 4/11 isnt necessarily key but it helps. Distance winner is not important as a lot of these will run over 7f & then step up.

[Trotter]

Re: Countdown to the classics

These are my trends from last year 1/11 Fav 9/11 SP between 7/2 - 11/1 9/11 Winner LTO (other 1 was 2nd) 8/11 Season debut 10/11 2 or more runs 4/11 Distance winner 4/11 Course winner

The stand-out stats there are 8/11 winning on seasonal debut and only 1/11 favourites Does that mean that the Guineas was their seasonal debut and they won it ?.............or does it mean they won their seasonal debut then ran in the Guineas ? If it's the former, then it's not so surprising that only 1/11 Faves has won..........presumably the ones who win the trials go to the head of the market and the ones who go straight to the Guineas get 'overlooked' in the hype

[Cassius Marcellus]

Re: Countdown to the classics Bowles, do Dewhurst winners still figure in the 2000 these days ? It used to be a fair benchmark many years ago. As for types, Lester reckoned that speed is more important than stamina to win either of the Guineas races.

[bowles10]

Re: Countdown to the classics

The stand-out stats there are 8/11 winning on seasonal debut and only 1/11 favourites Does that mean that the Guineas was their seasonal debut and they won it ?.............or does it mean they won their seasonal debut then ran in the Guineas ? If it's the former, then it's not so surprising that only 1/11 Faves has won..........presumably the ones who win the trials go to the head of the market and the ones who go straight to the Guineas get 'overlooked' in the hype

yep, 8/11 won on their seasonal debut so a trial race run counts against the horse. The fav stat is important & when you look at SP's being under 11/1, its normally the 1st 5 or 6 in the betting that commande respect except the fav.

[bowles10]

Re: Countdown to the classics Bumped this up as we enter an important trials week for the 3yo's

[bowles10]

Re: Countdown to the classics It has been confirmed that Winker Watson will miss the 2000 Guineas, but could be ready for the Irish version, or for Royal Ascot. Masaka Stakes winner Jazz Jam could contest the Italian 1000 Guineas. Marcus Tregoning's Il Warrd stood out in the Easter Stakes, and is likely to go to the French Guineas. Tregoning has said "I have watched the race several times over and he was absolutely different class to those, no question. "The official handicapper thought the performance warranted giving him a rating of 109, which still puts him a fair few pounds adrift of the top three horses in the betting for the Guineas. "Having said that, we are pretty certain he will improve quite a bit. But my gut feeling is that the chances are he's more likely to go to Longchamp for the French equivalent than run at Newmarket. Georgebernardshaw won at the Curragh for trainer Aidan O'Brien "He's improving and he has options," said the trainer of the colt, who is entered in the British, French and Irish 2000 Guineas Zarkava, who impressed on her seasonal debut winning at longchamp. Connections will decide whether to head for Newmarket or Longchamp nearer the time, with Georges Rimaud, the Aga Khan's racing manager, saying: "We were very pleased with that performance. She acted very well on this rather heavy ground. "The two Guineas are open. She is entered in Newmarket and in France and I suspect that the owner will decide with the trainer. A decision will be taken closer to the time." Of the Oaks, for which she is now favourite with British firms, Rimaud said: "She has a lot of entries and it is very premature to talk about it."

[Trotter]

Re: Countdown to the classics I saw the Zarkava race..........phew, that looks like some filly !!

[Trotter]

Re: Countdown to the classics Just announced...........Sense of Joy is out of the 1000 guineas........ She was 3rd favourite in the ante-post lists

[Gingertipster]

Re: Countdown to the classics Oh sugar, Backed SOJ after she won her maiden, hopefully she will be o.k. for the Oaks. Also lost a bit wit a saver on Listen. Did have a decent bet yesturday on Natagora 8/1 and 7/1, but forgot to put it up on my thread. May be she will do the stuff. Will know whether my 2000 bets are any good within 48 hours. Have 12/1 Ravens Pass, 399/1 and 50/1 River Proud, 74/1 Stimulation.

[alexmac]

Re: Countdown to the classics

John Gosden's unbeaten filly Sense Of Joy has been ruled out of the stanjamesuk.com 1000 Guineas at Newmarket next month after soft tissue damage was confirmed yesterday. John Gosden's filly, on offer at between 8/1 and 11/1 for the Guineas, won both her starts as a juvenile but has not been seen since the Prestige Stakes at Goodwood last August. "We are obviously trying to keep everyone up to speed with the problem," said Teddy Grimthorpe, racing manager to her owner Prince Khalid Abdullah. "It is not life-threatening but still potentially serious and it will keep her out of the Guineas." And the big-race sponsors Stan James have reacted by clipping French filly Natagora into 4/1 favourite.

Gutted, had her at 12/1 for this....

[bowles10]

Re: Countdown to the classics Horses i noted today which have gone in the notebook are: 2.00 Race 1st Pampas Cat - pulled away well form the field, slow time however 3rd Checklow - the interesting one to take from the race, will improve & follow next time out 4th King of the Gypsies & 5th Maraased - sure to win a race 2.35 race 1st Art Connoisseur - quickened well & in the book for Royal Ascot 2nd Servoca & Ouqba both from Barry Hills stable will no doubt win & should be followed next time 3.45 race Apart from the impressive winner Infallible, i would take 2 more out of the race: 4th Rosaleen, who quickened well thorugh the field in the last 2f 6th Nijoom Dubai will be capable of pciking up a few prizes this season perhaps abroad.

[bowles10]

Re: Countdown to the classics

These are my trends from last year 1/11 Fav 9/11 SP between 7/2 - 11/1 9/11 Winner LTO (other 1 was 2nd) 8/11 Season debut 10/11 2 or more runs 4/11 Distance winner 4/11 Course winner Cockney Rebels win last year @ 25/1 altered the SP trend & also the winner LTO figure, so last year was it a freak result or just the fact that it was via a lesser known trainer G Huffer? The 2 or more runs looks a stat to use firstly & then 1st LTO, Course winner at 4/11 isnt necessarily key but it helps. Distance winner is not important as a lot of these will run over 7f & then step up.

so do we avoid the favourite as the stats are against it? Looking at the above trends, horses with 2 or more runs, making seasonal debut & 1st LTO leaves us with; Fireside Ibn Khaldun Moynahan New Approach Plan That was easy enough, down to 5 with 1st & 2nd fav in the list. Lets look at the others first: Fireside Course winner 7f winner Moynahan 6f winner (could just be a sprinter) Plan 7f winner won easily by 5+L Could it be a match between Ibn Khaldun & New Approach? I think both of them proved all last season just how genuine both horses were.

[Woodie]

Re: Countdown to the classics I hope henry wins but I just cant see past NA. Take a look at the field and it's hard to give more than 3 horses a geniune case imo. Can't be backing ibn khaldun just don't know what godolphins form will be like. Stoute runner on form can't win. Ravens Pass ground a worry NA already beaten him comfortable. Henry needs quicker ground. What beats NA? current 2.84 on betfair looks good to me..

[bowles10]

Re: Countdown to the classics 1000 Guineas Sunday 3.20 Newmarket 10/10 SP 14/1 or under 6/10 seasonal debut 6/10 LTO 1st 9/10 LTO 4th or better 2/10 Distance winners 5/10 Course winner 9/10 3 or more runs 9/10 Won at least 2 races 6/10 LTO ran at Newmarket looks like the profile of the winner is 14/1 or lower (expected SP) LTO 4th or better 3 or more runs Won at least twice KItty Matcham Muthabara Natagora Savethisdanceforme Not much of a surprise with these 4 in the top 6 of the betting. Negative for the last named as its a distance winner whereas the winner of this seems to come on from either 6 or 7f. Kitty Matcham is the only one who ran at Newmarket LTO of the 3 above. Natagora won there last season also. The 3 shown in bold will be the subject of my bets.

[Woodie]

Re: Countdown to the classics Happy with the result with henry and NA that 50s on betfair a few weeks back was huge I only managed a few bob on at 40s. Backed NA on the day but happy with the result.

[bowles10]

Re: Countdown to the classics well done woodie, noticed we mentioned it needed the faster ground. I was told today that Fast Company has been burning up the gallops for Godolphin so wherever it goes, it has to be followed. Apparently, they didnt want to race it against New Approach today :unsure