AFL Rd. 3.

[TazaD]

Right...Dogs?...oh dear...where to start?! Now, obviously we can't read too much into last week's mauling, but it does make me feel a lot better abuot trusting Rd. 1's numbers... Adelaide are a similar defensive minded team to St. Kilda (in fact Crows D numbers were signficantly better than the Saints last year...2.15 to 1.93!!)...and the Dogs managed 56-57 I50's and a shot every 1.81! From what I've seen so far, the forward line seems to be functioning SO much better than I expected...Murphy 100% and moving freely, Hahn close to full pace, Welsh has (very!?) quietly kicked 3 in each game, Aker back to somewhere near 100%...starting to think this group can really trouble some teams now... ...clearly the problem is the back end. One of the worst defensive midfields in the AFL, and allowing a shot every 1.78 already. Riewoldt, Gehrig, Kosi...things could get nasty. Having said that, they traditionally haven't! Saints have only scored more than 100 2 times in last 10 meetings... ...and, some bad signs last week for their midfield, with Carlton actually edging them 54-53 for I50's! If the Doggies can at least break even in the middle (and the Crows game suggests they can to me), then I don't see any reason why this isn't a 50/50 game at best. Rd. 18 last year they played a draw at the Dome...Just looking at the stats I guess Gehrig went down early (just 1 mark, no kicks), but at the same time the Dogs were without Hahn, Gilbee, Griffen!! Not sure I'm that tempted by the +16.5 or so on offer, 'cause realistically if the Saints start to roll, they could easily win by 4-5 goals...but seeing 2.85 or so for the Dogs is huge to me!! Saints have won 7 of last 10 in dome, but only 2 of those have been by more than 17 (Carlton and Freo!...both of whom had just 5 less shots!!)...so, I guess I will be tempted by 17.5 or more afterall... As a supporter I'm reasonably confident of a win...definately can't see anything to suggest Saints should be such big favs. Hopefully there'll be a lowish total too, based on last year's game...but at the risk of going 0-3 on my own team, definately leaning to the Dogs and a possible over in this one. Sorry Pawa, but I think the Hawks win, but 1.40 is a bit tight. North look to have some problems scoring...just 27 shots v. Richmond is a worry! Hawks on fire...a shot every 1.52 entries!!!...Admittedly against 2 of the AFL's worst D's, but do like them to be able to outscore your boys in the dome. Not real interested from a betting pov tho...in fact Kangas at ~3.00 is pretty big, considering they've won the last 2 meetings late last year... ...bit early for the books to be crimping favs prices I would have thought , but yeah, I think the Hawks do win. Does anyone outside WA care?...Eagles can't score, Freo can't stop anyone...neither team has shown an ounce of form going back to mid last year... The only thing I can see is that WC have a HUGE avantage in clearances, and av. 10 clangers less per game! 1-1 last year, Haselby was BOG for Freo in both games...Judd has a monster in the WC win...what a shitty game to try to pick! Swans interest me a lot...Goodes (likely) out, but no too concerned. What have Brisbane done? Got beaten by a crappy Eagles team, and statistically smashed by the Pies last week...bailed out by some dubious umpiring?! 12 less I50's, 20 less clearances and 15 less contested possies!! Managed to score every 1.42 entries (somehow?!) which just won't happen this week. Swans crushed Port in just about every way possible last week...at home sure, but the 'Gabba is no concern. Brisbane haven't won in the last 7 meetings...their last win was by just 2 points as 1.30 home favs...have lost 2 and drawn 1 of last 3 at home...the draw (last season) Sydey had 5 more shots (Hall 1.5!) 4 more I50's and 33-20 clearances. No Kennelly either in that game (although Charman went down during for Brisbane) Brisbane are dead last for I50's so far through 2 games, so I don't see how they score enough against this Sydney D to trouble them. Seeing 2.21 @ PP, and liking it! Carlton +10 (hopefully)...Reality check for the Bombers last week...yeah, up against the best, but a measly 6 goals...miss Lucas much? Carlton won in Rd. 3 last season, despite Hird being BOG, and Lucas kicking 3.5 with 11 marks... ...Essendon by 10 in Rd. 20, but same amount of shots, Hird and Lucas had 40 possies and a couple of goals between them, and Fev hardly touched it. The Blues Rd. 1 loss looks bad, but had the same amount of shots as Richmond. Essendon haven't won a game by more than 10 points (just won 2 at all!) in their last 9 at the MCG (back to end of 2006)... ...tough game to call a winner, but will be happy with the points in this one for sure. [Crap! Only +7.5 @ Lasetters now I look...] I've seen Geelong as much as 1.03 around! Couldn't possibly lay -73 could we??!! Would have been happy to take -173 at the dome, but weather could be a factor...Cats haven't won by more than 70 in their last 10 at home... Pretty sure Collingwood win, but a bit surprised by 1.30...couldn't take the -20 that's for sure. Tiges have won 4 of 6 goig back to 2004...lost one by only 5 as big dogs... ...won by 20 last year as 6.00 'dogs!!...same amount of shots tho, and Deledio kicked 5. Richmond can't seem to score so far, with just 24 shots v. Carlton and 21 v. Roos (2.11)...Pies have had 29 and 30 @ 1.75 against comparable D's I guess. Crows -6.5...The new attacking Crows could kick a monster score here! A shot every 1.75 entries, up agaisnt a Port D that has allowed a shot every 1.67!! Smashed Port in their last meeting last year...won by just 8 but had 28 shots to 15 and 58 I50's to 40!! Have won 7 of last 9 meetings...all by 7 or more...1 loss was as a big dog anyway. Port over-rated after last season's GF appearance...Seems the world is off the Adelaide (and Sydney ) bandwagons, so there's plenty of room for me to lay back and relax! Geeves, pass me the Champagne... So, Swans ML, Crows -6.5 (or better!)... ...was really hoping for that +10, so will need to rethink Blues...and also a likely dip at Doggies at big odds and the over... Off to Darwin for the weekend, so hopefully I'll get to see some games...:unsure

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Rd. 3. Ah Rivalry Round (Something I class as whenever both WA and SA teams play each other). 2007- Last year; (Round 18) Dogs and Saints drew. (Round 3) Blues beat Essendon by 3 2006 (Round 21) Demons beat Geelong by 1 2005 (Round 3) Bombers beat Hawks by 2, Richmond beat Dogs by 4, Swans beat Lions by 6, Kangaroos beat Saints by 7, WCE beat Freo by 8 (Round 20) Demons beat Cats by 1, Crows beat Port by 7 That's as far back as my definition of Rivalry round goes. 6 sets of rounds in total (48 games), with 1 draw and a lot of games not going too far from the mark. Using betfair margins can probably get above 50s? (I hardly ever bet AFL margins so don't know). The Bombers Blues has a pretty strong H2H case. 1 draw, a 3pt margin, 4pt margin, 10pt and 11pt margin (From Last 10). Maybe a play for U15.5? Similarly Swans and Lions drew last year, plus a 2pt and 6pt margin (From Last 10). . Likewise Cats and...ahem Demons have a recent draw as well as a 1pt and 6pt margin (From Last 10). Admittedly I have a tendency to overly rely on statistics when punting, though always believed the 'rivalry' factor often diluted the effect form and talent had on the outcome of these games. Thoughts?