Newbury 29/03

[bowles10]

I attended this meeting last year & as was proved yesterday, stamina counts on this course. I will only be looking at horses that have form 2f+ above the racing distance.

[alexmac]

Re: Newbury 29/03 1.50 - SERHAAPHIM 9/1 E/W Very interested in this today. Has had a decent winter - not often out of the top 3 over hurdles. This ground will suit him ideally, with more rain forecast things are looking perfect for him. The amateur rider claiming another 7lbs is a bonus, and I expect him to run a big race today at an excellent price. 2.20 MORT DE RIRE 10/1 E/W Very open looking race this. The ground has gone against many of the market leaders (Yardbird expecially). One that will very much appreciate the ground is Mort De Rire, who has ran credibly at Wincanton, Lingfield and Kempton in similar conditions. It will be very texting today, and the 3m will take some getting. They will be going a snails pace jumping the last, and I expect a fair few will have been pulled up by that point. I am hoping that Mort De Rire is not one of them. I think he is very much capable of staying on late, and could well run into a place at a very decent price. 2.55 LA GRANDE VILLEZ 11/1 E/W Again, this will take some getting, and a few of the principles in the market look like they may well struggle. Theatre Diva in particular will find this very tough, and is a very uneasy favourite in my opinion. Alan King has an interesting runner in La Grande Villez. She definately handles the ground, and has performed over this trip before. The amateur rider on board takes off a handy 7lbs, leaving this mare very well treated. 11/1 looks like too big a price for a horse that will handle the going, can do the trip and has a 7lbs claimer on board. 3.25 CASTLECROSSINGS 5/1 E/W Open looking race, where there are plenty of chances at the front of the market. The one I particularly like the look of is Castlecrossings. AP's mount crusied home LTO on Heavy ground at Chepstow, seeing off Arctic Magic and Romping Home easily. This will be tougher, but again, the ground suits, the trip is ideal, and AP on board is a definite plus. Not a huge price, but 5/1 looks like an E/W bet to nothing.