Kempton 29/03

[bowles10]

3.10 I have reviewed the Rosebery stakes in my trends thread & I like the look of PINCH OF SALT from Baldings yard with young William Buick in the saddle getting a handy 3lb. The horse went up 24lb in total last season after 2 nice wins at Kempton. Rns off 92 in this race & will have to improve again but does look a horse that could progress on this surface.

[terror1909]

Re: Kempton 29/03 Got a tip in the 2.05 Upper Class. Sorry if in wrong thread and sorry if it looses :)

[billy the punter]

Re: Kempton 29/03 3.10 I'm all for the increasing of A/W tracks/meetings, it makes my life a lot easier, however I don't like to see the transfer of historic turf handicaps from grass to A/W. That's what's happened with the Rosebery, and for me the past two years haven't been the same. It certainly has made it more difficult to find the winner. It's my opinion that higher class A/W races (Class 2 and above) are much trickier than their turf equivalents. This was proved with the farce of a Winter Derby this month, I didn't play so I'm not talking through my pocket, but if you ran the Winter Derby five times you would've seen five different results. There was hardly no pace and the form should be taken lightly (don't worry I AM getting to the point). That's why I'm prepared to give Philatelist another chance. He finished 10th of 14 in the Winter Derby but I'm putting a line straight through that run. He lost his place on the inner at half way and was niggled along sooner than expected. He did get into top gear about one out and starting to make a challenging run. His jockey chose to stick to the inner, not only is that a difficult place to win from, his path was blocked, he was eased when his chance went. I think he would've finished top four or five at least. He won well on his seasonal debut but hasn't been harshly treated, given a 5lb hike and is off 94 now. He ran a cracker at Royal Ascot off 92 on only his 5th start, over a trip which does strech his stamina. I believe he is a much stronger horse now. He won his maiden at 1m4f but since then looked not to stay that trip in handicaps, perhaps this trip of 1m3f is perfect. His trainer entered him over it for his racecourse debut after all. (Has the Rosebery always been 1m3f?) I will be having some savers as usual. Heron Bay got clobbered by the handicapper after his Royal Ascot win (Philatelish 7th), but probably ran upto that sort of mark in the messy Gordon Stakes, his next race. His early season form last year was useful and I really think there is another big race in him. Poor draw, but price big enough to carry a small stake. Players Please ran some solid races in big handicaps last season. He clearly likes the hussle and bussle of the big fields. His day surely has to come in a race like this. He is 2/3 on the dirt (as is Philatelist), has won when fresh and is one of only 4 distance winners in the field. I backed Gold Prospect on both his A/W runs last year and they turned out to be his best two runs of the season. His maiden form reads well now and he runs here off 80 with the claim. Is well drawn too. I've had a couple of 1-2s this week but didn't play the casts, when I have on 2/3 occasions this week it's proved fruitless, but as I'm well in front in the dept after last weekend so I'll do the combos here I suppose - rude not to. Philatelist 50% of stake 6.0 betfair Players Please 30% of stake 8.6 betfair Heron Bay 10% of stake Gold Prospect 10% of stake Think the last two will be around 20 come the morning.

[billy the punter]

Re: Kempton 29/03 3.45 Diamond Tycoon was an interesting horse last season despite only having two runs. I laid him E/W in the 2000 Guineas, not because I don't like him, I just don't think you can win your maiden in late April and then with the Guineas. The race came too soon, maybe that is why he came back wrong and wasn't seen again in 2007. He was far from disgraced on the big day, beaten less than 6l and finishing 6th of his group. The reason he went off as short as 15/2 that day was due to his maiden win just before. He bolted up by 6l despite looking in need of the run and clocked an impressive time (4l faster the Spring Cup that day). What was even more amazing was the horses he beat that day; the 2nd was a classic(!), the 3rd won three times, the 4th and 5th won NTO, the 6th won four times inc the Cambridgeshire, the 7th won NTO and was placed at Royal Ascot, the 8th won NTO, the 10th, 12th, 13th, 14th, and 16th all won. Sorry to go on, but I've never seen a maiden like this. Apparently the trip is a slight worry but he ran on over 1m on his sole two year old start and I think he'll get this trip today. He finished 2nd that day - (Jalil was 6th! The horses this horse has beaten is unreal). I hope he has retained his ability as he could be useful, he is a shoe-in here IF he has. Spice Route wasn't disgraced when upped to Group company last season and is a big price against some horses that are not Group class. Diamond Tycoon 80% of stake 9/4 paddy power Spice Route 20% of stake 10.5 betfair

[fintron]

Re: Kempton 29/03 In the 3.10 I'm going on Sgt Schulze (4.6 Betfair) and John Terry (6.4 Betfair) to place. Many have good claims in this race so don't want to risk a win bet, but John Terry won a class 2 race over 11f (12f here) at Lingfield on his penultimate run off 89 and is only rated at 91 now. Sgt Schultze has enjoyed a bit of a battle with John Terry - they have both beaten each other once in the last two encounters, and Sgt Schultze won off 89 at Lingfield last time out when receiving 2 lbs from John Terry who was back in 4th. Although Sgt Schultze is raised 4 lb in the handicap for that win for todays race, it has the benefit of T Dean (winning jockey on this horse LTO) taking off 3 lbs. In the 3.45 I like Kandidate (7/2 Bet 365 BOG). Comes from in in-form yard and hopefully its last run, when unseated its rider at Nad al Sheba, can be ignored. The selection has scooped a couple of Group 3's in his time and did place in 2nd on his penultimate run at Nad Al Sheba in March to suggest fitness is unlikely to be an issue. Hopefully Neil Callan can give it a good ride today.

[Carl]

Re: Kempton 29/03 Mr Aviator 3.10 Kempton Won in good fashion LTO here over 1m2f,he was tried in some good handicaps last season and struggled to win, but his handicap mark slipped, and he took full advantage here on his re-appearance he's up 6lb since that but the fact that connections have put Haden Frost (with his 5lb claimer) on to compensate for that penalty is a tip in itself. Also he by passed the Lincoln last week to run in this. Kandidate 3.45 Kempton Unseated Ryan Moore at Nad Al Sheba 3 weeks ago but ran well before that to get 2nd at Nad over 1m1f chasing home Lucky Find who is a top class dirt horse. This is easier and a repeat performance of that race will see it take this for connections who are very much in form with 7 winners from their last 15 runners (46%). Kandidate is also 2 from 2 at Kempton.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Kempton 29/03 2.05 Mujaadel 12/1 bet3 bog 7.5 pts e.w Dunlops few have started well this season and he runs two here but again the second choice might be of more interest, ran disappointingly lto last season but before that looked reasonably useful, run behind Rio de la Plata for one, won maiden at odds on another decent performance, only slight concern is that a/w form is an unkown but still shouldn't be dismissed. 2.40 Miesko 6.8 betf 7.5 pts 2.38 place 7.5 pts Related to Folk who was good in Dubai last year and after a few runs this one finally got his act together with a couple of wins over sprint distances towards last season and looked to have improved in doing so, handicapper may not have totally found him out and from pedigree surface should be ok. 3.10 Mr Aviator 7.5 pts e.w SP Won nicely the other week here and although raised for that, it might not be too harsh, last season at times some good runs, win at Good for example when well backed, some useful types behind that day, run behind Pipedreamer another fine run, lots of good types in that race, perhaps lost its way a bit right at the end of a tough season but looks ready for this season judging by win lto and should go close. 3.45 Diamond Tycoon 15 pts 2/1 spo Even with all the Dubai racing, arguably the most interesting runner of the whole day. Awesome maiden win, thrashed high quality field, maiden of the season for me last year, Leger winner and Cambridgeshire winner put to the sword with ease then, on the bridle, Guineas ran ok not really much better than that but possibly just found the race a touch too soon. Had problems but returns today on a/w and pedigree indicates that shouldnt be a problem, trip is questionable over 10f but surely Meehan must think it has it in him or why run such a fascinating horse who has had problems over it and if you were looking for positive signs in regards with the trip well it was not stopping at Newb over 1m. 5.25 Som Tala 9/2 betf 15 pts Interestingly gelded, jumper in the making? Findaly reportedly has had his eyes on this one for that. Anyway flat form at times reasonable, Royal Ascot third for one in a race that worked out in places, Leg Spinner, Juniper Girl. Ran moderately after that without winning, ignore Cesar. run as went free before hand, might not be the worse chance first up, pedigree indicates a/w shouldnt be a major problem.

[Aykay1]

Re: Kempton 29/03 345 Kempton - Kandidate 3/1 Coral With the Brittain stable in such good form and the horse fit and well after a good 2nd on his penultimate start in Dubai, I am leaning towards Kandidate over the favourite Diamond Tycoon, of whom there are one or two question marks - fitness, distance, track. Kandidate has won twice here before and is down in grade and should go well.

[bowles10]

Re: Kempton 29/03 nice one Bill with Philatelist, good price also :ok

[billy the punter]

Re: Kempton 29/03 Thanks mate, I knew (guessed more like) the 6 was big. :)

[billy the punter]

Re: Kempton 29/03 Well done chaps re Kandidate. :ok Think fitness beat my saver Spice Route. Shocking run from Diamond Tycoon. Big ?'s over him now. Real genuine type the winner - nice one.

[bowles10]

Re: Kempton 29/03 :clap Carl, Fintron & AK well done, Kandidate looked like it may get caught but the late run was ill timed & held on.

[fintron]

Re: Kempton 29/03 Well done Billy (Philatelist ) and Russ, Calr & AK (Kandidate). I thought Kandidate was a fantastic price when I put it up on here myself at 7/2 with Bet 365 this morning. I wacked it in a load of doubles so :hope for the rest of them. John Terry also stayed on well for the place (was 6.4 on Betfair). Sgt Schultze let me down but 2/3 aint bad.:D

[Aykay1]

Re: Kempton 29/03 Well done with the winners today lads. Very disappointed with Diamond Tycoon - last of 8 :eek I didnt see the race myself - was it a case of him just needing the race or is it too early to say?

[billy the punter]

Re: Kempton 29/03

Well done with the winners today lads. Very disappointed with Diamond Tycoon - last of 8 :eek I didnt see the race myself - was it a case of him just needing the race or is it too early to say?

The RP have ignored him totally in the analysis. Why not? He was only a one time classic hope who went off short but flopped, hardly a talking point is it? Not even worthy of a mention. Well done. :wall He travelled ok early I thought. He was nowhere near fit and he found NOTHING. It may be more than that though, it's a guessing game with regards to if he has retained any ability. I must be mad getting involved to be fair - too much had to be taken on trust. Hindsight great thing I know.

[Aykay1]

Re: Kempton 29/03 Its a tricky one though because if he's fit, he's a 4/6 shot and walks it.

[RussP]

Re: Kempton 29/03 Great winner on this thread in Kandidate, also Philatelist. Not forgetting the fantastic place bet on John Terry from Fintron. Well done everyone:clap