Guest TazaD Posted October 8, 2004 Share Posted October 8, 2004 15-23-1 (-9.48 ) :x :x Intersting week ahead....Wrote these, but still not 100% what I will be playing: Oakland +9 (Seeing the world on Indi...could scrape a 9.5, maybe a 10!! by game time??) Simply tough to take a team with a defense this bad as a big fav. Indi allowing over 300 ypg passing...and allow 3rd down conversions @ 52%!! Yeah, I know Collins looked drunk last week, but I'm sure he can bounce back. He lead the team well in pre-season...If they can hold onto the ball, I think da Raiders can be right in this one all the way....They've been right in every game this season but are -8 in turnovers!! Their ground game has been good so far (av. 4.6 ypc), and although Wheatley out, Zereoue ran for 117 on just 14 carries last week, so no problems there. Indi held Jax to 3.0 ypc last week, but could afford to show no respect to the Jax passing game. Collins and the Raiders are much more of a deep threat, so I'm willing to bet Oakland can establish a ground game to keep Manning and co. off the field for long periods. Oakland allowing only 3.6 ypc on the ground, so they should be able to keep James in check and not bite on play-action fakes. They also allow <60% passing and have had 12 sacks for the year so far. Realistically Indi have been out-played in 3 of their 4 games this year, and Green Bay turned it over twice, played ZERO defense and still only lost by 14. Oakland's running game is better than GB...run D much better, they pass for more yards and allow less passing yards. I repeat: If they can hold onto the ball, I think da Raiders can be right in this one all the way. San Diego +2.5 (ML if reasonable price) (hoping for a +3) I know I've been on abot how crap SD are, and the Jags are for real...But this is a tough trip for Jax. No real secret that the Jags rely on their ground game and a strong D to win games. A quick look at the stats (early in the season still, I know!...but) the Chargers have the 3rd best run D in the NFL!!...Allowing only 3.3 ypc!...Better than the Jags themselves @ 3.5. SD's defensive problems are against the pass, but can the Jags take advantage? Not so sure they can. They only scored 17 @ home v. a worse defense than this last week...which would mean SD would only have to hit 14 to at least push @ +3. Also think I've just talked myself into under 37 as a good bet. No point jumping off the Jax under train just yet I guess. Detroit @ Atlanta under 41.5 ...Falcons average 33 runs a game to only 18 passes. This will play into the hands of the Lions as they have a reasonable Run D (allowing only 3.6 ypr), but their problem is their weak secondary. Can Atlanta take advantage?...Doubt it. On the other side of the ball, Detroit WILL NOT be able to get any kind of ground game going. In a way it works out well that Bryson looked ok last week. Mariucci saying that they will persist with trying to establish a running game. I see Detroit being in a lot of 2nd/3rd and longs. I also think that the Falcons will be able to play a lot of Nickle/Dime packages, and just allow their front 6 to control the Det ground game. Add to that, Detroit just can't score on the road. (20 @ Chicago was their best for a LONG time...and even then the blocked FG was 7 of those.) TB ML @ ~2.60 Been looking pretty closely at this game....Had originally like TB to keep it close against a terrible NO defense. Then, I realised...Both teams had played Seattle, in Wk's 1 and 2....thought I'd take a look at how they both performed. Now, yes, I am fully aware that when Seattle played in TB it was their second straight road trip, and just about the longest trip possible in the NFL.....BUT....Look at this!!......... Seattle @ NO FD's: Seattle 21, NO 12 Total yards: Seattle 415, NO 281 YPC: Seattle 3.9, NO 3.9 Pass yards: Seattle 246 @ 8.5, NO 207 @ 5.3 TOP: Seattle 33.37, NO 26.23 Score: Seattle 21, NO 7 Seattle @ TB FD's: Seattle 9, TB 17 Total Yards: Seattle 182, TB 271 YPC: Seattle 2.4, TB 3.8 Pass yards: Seattle 126 @ 4.2, TB 179 @ 4.1 TOP: Seattle 26.17, TB 33.43 Score: Seattle 10, TB 6 As I said, not exactly comparing apples to apples, but there is a MASSIVE difference in the defense of these two teams. TB beat NO 14-7 as 3 point dogs @ NO last year.... Definately think the Bucs are good value on the ML @ ~2.60 (+160) This weeks 'trends': Since '89, League: 16-1 SU (14-1-1 this no...Av. win 16.5) home 7+ fav, total >42' off a BYE. [seattle] 13-4 over (Av. 54.3) in this situation also. Historically, teams off a bye who are supposed to score big (ie, big favs, high total), DO score big. Teams in this spot average over 35 ppg. League: 11-1 ats...(Av. win 22.4!!!) when an undefeated home team plays a team without a win. [Jets and NE] (since '97) League: 8-21 (Av. win 2.2) home 3+ fav, total <40 off a BYE. [Dal] 1-11 (Av. LOSS 3.0) if opp off any ats win!...(3-9 SU!) Like I said, not sure what I'll be playing yet...want to still weed a few plays out...Gotta get this ship back on track....er, train back on the road....um....:thinker REALLY like a 5 team, 6 point teaser @ 4.50: Seattle -1 Jets -1 Atl/Det under 47 SD +8.5 TB +9 Only getting about 2.25 for SD to beat Jax, and not looking like getting any +3's.....def like them in the teaser. Anyway...anyone else have any thoughts? :drums Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thephysician Posted October 8, 2004 Share Posted October 8, 2004 Thoughts. DET @ ATL I'm considering the point spread here. I've seen it at 7.5, which starts to make me think good things at picking Detroit as the Underdog getting a Touchdown start. They're an improving team, while the Falcons aren't in the league of the Eagles to blow right through the Lions (I am biased as a Lions fan, but on the other hand I pay attention to them and their upcoming opponents). MIN @ HOU Houston should roll over to the Vikings, who've had a week off and a kick up the back side. The 50 over/under looks to high though. The Vikes will turnover the ball (Culpepper has oily hands it seems), and don't have a great defence, but the Texans aren't that good at scoring. Do prefer the -4 spread on the Vikings here. MIAMI @ New England. Even at 1.09 on the money line, I'd take it if I was betting more than I do (what I do bet this season makes it hardly seem worth the time). The Fins are as awful as the 12.5 point spread shows. This is about as onesided as Palace visiting Arsenal. The spread is probably about right, and I might buy a few points of it anyways to have a least one result this weekend :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bozzers corner Posted October 8, 2004 Share Posted October 8, 2004 Week 5 Really like the Viks this week not sure why the line is so low - they have some injuries in the secondary but a very deep unit and the offense should always put enough points on the board to cover the line. Anyone know why the Giants/Cowboys game is OTB at Bet365 - playing the evens +3 at Stan James on the Giants and can't find any logical reason why 365 have taken it down. Hoping the Dolphins stop the Pats - just cos it would make me laugh. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thephysician Posted October 9, 2004 Share Posted October 9, 2004 For those watching... I've gone for the following in the end: Lions +7 @ 1.91, gamebookers. Vikings -3.5 @ 1.91, Stan James Patroits Money Line @1.10, betDaq. I think that extra half point at Stan James is very nice, for the Vikings. The touch down start for the Lions is possibly hope over reality, but as TazaD suggests the game will be low scoring, meaning more chance it's a close game. The Pats are 1.12 on Pinnacle, but I don't have an account with them and don't want to set one up right now. Taken it just to chalk one up in the Win Column. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest hawksteel Posted October 9, 2004 Share Posted October 9, 2004 Dallas/NYG There has been some question to weather this weekend, but it looks like the conditions have indicated mostly non-precipitation for the bulk of it, which may not be reflected yet on some books. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest TazaD Posted October 9, 2004 Share Posted October 9, 2004 Minni..... Careful playing Minni this week guys. Sure huge talent difference, but Minni defense is very poor...giving up more than 3 on the road could be trouble. Plus: Minn 1-18 last 19 on grass Houston 5-1 all time as +3 - +7 home dogs. Houston have actually outscored their opponents at home 50-44 so far this year. FWIW, the only maybe problems with wether I can see is that it might be a bit windy in NE and SF...but neither of these games looks to be a high passing game anyway, so no big deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest TazaD Posted October 9, 2004 Share Posted October 9, 2004 Final Play... After a heap of thinking :banghead ....only going with the teaser. 2 units on: TB +9 Atl/Det under 47 Seattle -0.5 Jets -1 SD +8.5...........@ 5.50 I really do like both Tampa and San Diego to win SU, but they are worth about the same to me in the teaser with a heap of extra points. (I was always going to tease the other 3). OH....I nearly forgot.....Not playing Oakland because I had a dream they lost by 5! :thinker To me that means they covered...which more than likely means they won't! :lol (I still can't believe I mentioned this in public! :o ) Good Luck this week guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest TazaD Posted October 10, 2004 Share Posted October 10, 2004 Re: Final Play... Adding NE/Miami under 34.5 (1.98 @ Betfair) Can't see anything but a very low scoring, defensive battle in this one. NE have their two best receivers listed as doubtful. Miami are terrible on offense, but have a tremendous defense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Striker Posted October 11, 2004 Share Posted October 11, 2004 Good Luck Guys I like DETROIT + 7.5 over Atlanta @ 1.83 [stanley] The Falcons are due a letdown,while the Lions are playing well enough this season to oblige! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rumlesen Posted October 11, 2004 Share Posted October 11, 2004 Re: Final Play... TazaD Maybe you can answer me. Will i win this bet. 19:00 New England Patriots - Miami Dolphins (under /over 34.00) - 1 1.90 As you know, exactly 34 was scored. What do you recon? i will go down as a loss right?:banghead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thephysician Posted October 11, 2004 Share Posted October 11, 2004 I'm not TazaD But wouldn't that count as a push? (Very happy that the Lions won though... who needs a points spread!). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Striker Posted October 11, 2004 Share Posted October 11, 2004 Result Detroit WIN 17-10:notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rumlesen Posted October 11, 2004 Share Posted October 11, 2004 Re: I'm not TazaD Could i be so lucky to get my stakes back? hmm, why did they not put the line as 34,5 then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rumlesen Posted October 11, 2004 Share Posted October 11, 2004 Re: I'm not TazaD You where right ThePhysician. New England Patriots - Miami Dolphins (under /over 34.00) Cancelled 1 1.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest TazaD Posted October 11, 2004 Share Posted October 11, 2004 Re: I'm not TazaD You'll definately get your money back, rumlesen. :ok Just the way it works mate, works that way for all handicap betting. Got a bit lucky, with Miami going 4 and out their last two possessions in the red zone. The 'total' was strange tho...opened 34, down to 33.5 and upto 34.5. (At some places anyway!) 34 is a pretty key number for NFL...A very high % of games end @ 34 and 37. I was definately happy to tyake the 34.5. Great win by Tampa. Detroit play GREAT defense to topple the (still over-rated imo) Hawks....and the total stays under to keep the teaser alive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thephysician Posted October 11, 2004 Share Posted October 11, 2004 Nice work! Went 3 for 3 this week on my picks, so very happy (though the Vikes gave me a worry for a while, glad Mr Culpepper has a big arm to get a OT TD rather than the more normal Field Goal). I expect the Lions to be over-rated on the spread next week when they host the Pack... depends on the Monday night game. Seattle vs. New England is the biggie, though, and unless there's a silly spread in Seattle's favour, I'll stay away. Just saying it now, as I'm away all next week. I'll probably just follow TazaD if I don't get a chance to have a looksee before then :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest TazaD Posted October 11, 2004 Share Posted October 11, 2004 D'oh! I don't think I've ever been so depressed in my life! Couldn't bare watching the games so I left the house because I knew the Jets were going to blow the game and ruin my teaser. Got back, see Jets won by 2!!...Only to catch the end of the Seattle game...I nearly fell over. :( :( :( You might be right, Physician....esp. after Det lost Schlesinger and Williams today. If they don't start the Lions might nearly get shut out at home!!! On one game next week already.....Played Minni -3 @ NO for 2 units. They might score 60! NE -4 btw :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rumlesen Posted October 11, 2004 Share Posted October 11, 2004 Re: D'oh! Yep TazaD, got my money back. And the winning from under in the Detroit game. Thank you for the tips:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest chair leg Posted October 11, 2004 Share Posted October 11, 2004 sdfa That is a BAD BEAT in that teaser, I went 11-5-1 on my NFL possible plays today, but only 3-2-1 on actual plays :( I'll check in next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bozzers corner Posted October 11, 2004 Share Posted October 11, 2004 gutted Went to bed at the start of the 4th quarter only to wake up and see the Rams won :banghead - but lucky on the Viks so can't really complain I guess, could have been a lot worse:o .....wish I had more on the Giants:rolleyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.jpg.32384c3055cbc1254b0eb6212fda1359.jpg)
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.