Newbury - 29/2/08

[WoodyTHFC]

2.40 The Apprentice 14/1 Boy BOG Took a bumper in decent style earlier this season and then won novice hurdle event at Plumpton, when fav on last start disappointed a bit but in truth never could get in the race in a seemingly below par run, added distance today should help it try to get competitive and there is the odd formline that suggests it could be overpriced, for example the early bumper season form with Definite Edge. Place chances at least. 3.15 Brave Villa 9/2 Boy BOg 7.5 pts win Oceanos des Obeaux 5/1 var 7.5 pts Doing two here. Brave Villa is inconsistent and can put in some indifferent runs at times but it is also capable of winning as it showed last season and once this, second lto encoraged at return to form. The Hobbs horse was a talented hurdler who made encouraging chase start when winning before two below par runs afterwards. This is more its level possibly and I am sure it is better than those last two runs, Johnson has spoke before of how he was looking forward to this one before those two runs. 3.50 Minella Tipperary 12/1 Bet3 Bog Another Hobbs one which is no bad form given his currnet form, again half decent hurdler who has gone chasing. Started chase career with victory over Marcus on second start, a result which is decent, since then disappointed a bit but on that Exeter win it certainly cannot be ruled out with confidence today. Cheltenham entries over further but has shown not complete paceless before and e.w claims at least again.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Newbury - 29/2/08 2:10 Newbury This looks a poor novice by Newbury standards with few appealing as decent sorts. Alaghiraar the exception. Lucky I did the working out for this early, saw the RP website went up 5/2 betting forecast and knew it should be much shorter. Put up that I wanted almost 2/1 and it was taken. It ran a promising race against stable companion Crack Away Jack on hurdling debut (2m on good). Hopefully he can give a boost to that horses chance for the Fred Winter. Alighiraar stayed well on the flat but showed enough speed at Sandown to suggest he is up to this. Maraafeq might be a danger and can improve, but has a penalty and might want a stiffer test (soft last time). Struggling to find any others with a chance, Chesapeake needs to show more than on debut and stable still seems to be struggling too. 2:40 Newbury Looks a much better race than the opener with several in with a chance. Probable favourite Von Galen ran a promising race here but did not look an easy ride. Not what you would want with this jockey. Black Ven may like a stiffer test. The Apprentice needs to learn to jump and ran green last time. Timpo ran poorly last time and his stable has not yet hit form. Turbulance might want further. Definate Edge looks very short for what he has done, Nicholls. The Jazz Musician is interesting on hurdling debut, well bred but stable is not in the same form it once was. Pettifour who is another one who might like further but Twiston-Davis and Brennen like front running / racing prominently which may help. A possible strong wind blowing head on up the home straight should make stamina tell anyway. Should go close unless it is not soft enough, worth taking a chance at the price. Orion d'Oudaires was going o.k. When falling 3 out last time and may have improvement in him if all is well with him. Don't like backing last time out fallers but again the price makes it worth it. 3:15 Newbury Looks a poor handicap, Allumne's stable is in good form and so is he. The change of stable looks to have done him some good. Ran well last time and has the bonus of an excellent conditional jockey aboard. Brave Villa might get a soft lead and would have been the main bet if the stable were in better form. Bring Me Sunshine ran well last time but looks plenty short enough. Oceanos Des beaux is in poor form. So is Tighe Caster and has gone from Bowen to Thorpe, is well handicapped on his best form though. Key Phil likewise. 3:50 Newbury This race is so full of pace I want to back a hold up horse. The two I am interested in are Sir Laughalot and Ammunition. The former ran as though something was hurting last time but before that looked open to improvement, unexposed over fences. Stable in form and a positive jockey booking. Should run well at a good price if over what ailed him. Ammunition was running well before a bad mistake four out lost all chance. Looked capable of better before that run. Price is a little bit too short now. Burren Legend jumped better than usual when racing prominently just a few days ago, plenty of others to take him on up front here. This is also a shorter trip which could place more strain on his jumping. King Euro has been in great form at this trip on heavy. Appeared not to cope with the test of speed under firmer conditions earlier. But a strong pace should help his stamina come through. Another pace horse. Olay Olay, pace horse, improved earlier on in the season over further. Minella Tipperary has not been in good form of late but has had a short break. 4:25 Newbury Looks a very open race, El Zorro is stepping up in trip and it might not be soft enough. Leamington Lad is still a maiden but has a chance on form. New Team ran an excellent race after a long lay off on reappearance, but his best form is when fresh anyway. Snow Patrol had a bad fall last time and may not be over it. Ricardo's Chance is interesting at the price, fitness has to be taken on trust as not run since November. Did not appear to go as well on softer surface last time but should get ground conditions in his favour here.