Lower-League Totals Public Fade

[allthethings]

Overs are the one area of football betting that I've had some consistent success with. But the best success I've had has been since I stopped trying to cap games all over the map and focused just on the higher-scoring lower leagues (primarily England and Holland in the winter, and Austria, Denmark, Norway and Sweden in the summer). Over time I realized that it just didn't make sense, most of the time, to put money on poorly paid lines (in spite of the logic it took me a long time to stop). And in the process of cutting down my possible plays to just those where the line was +100 or better (2.00 or better), I noticed something really interesting: The best-paid overs in these lower leagues seemed, again and again, to defy conventional wisdom and go over, even games that pitted two teams that neither scored nor conceded many goals. Unfortunately, although I was loosely keeping track, I didn't save the closing lines that could have helped check this over time throughout Europe...if anyone knows where I can find a database of closing lines I'd much appreciate a head's up. But I finally did decide I'd start playing the one best-paid game in each of my three favorite England leagues (Leagues One and Two, and Blue Square Premier/Conference 1), and I kept track through February. The results, admittedly a small sample that I can verify, have been encouraging: 2/23 L1 Barnet/Milton Keynes Dons +115 0-2 L2 Bournemouth/Cheltenham +106 2-1 EC Kidderminister/Salisbury +117 1-2 2/16 L1 Northampton/Gillingham +116 4-0 L2 Darlington/Mansfield +109 1-2 EC Farsley/Woking +118 3-0 2/12 L1 Carlisle/Huddersfield +106 2-1 L2 Mansfield/Morecambe +120 1-2 EC Grays/Rushden ppd 2/9 L1 Tranmere/Leyton +114 1-1 L2 Wycombe/Mansfield +116 1-2 EC Oxford/Histon +111 3-0 2/2 L1 Millwall/Doncaster +117 0-3 L2 Mansfield/Brentford +114 2-3 That's 11-2, and all games of better than even money ($100 bets would have you plus $1250 on your 11 wins and minus $200 on your two losses). If you're wondering why the first weekend (2/2) didn't include a Eng Conf game, it's because none of the lines on offer were for even money or better. A couple things to throw in here. These are close to final lines, about 30 minutes before game time in most cases. In some cases the game I thought I was going to play either took a lot of overs money to go to -101 or worse, or enough unders money to drop the line on offer to O 2 -175 or something, and I didn't track what happened in those instances. In a couple of cases I had two games in the same league at exactly the same (best) price, so I capped them quickly and in both cases guessed right, while the ones I didn't choose went under. Some of you may also ask why I didn't play every game at better than even money. The reason is I have learned that the more bets you take the more likely you are to lose. The other reason is I suspect this has just been a lucky streak, and if I played 12 games I'd go 6-6 at best. But I think there's some logic to it. After the fact I checked the stats on these games and in almost every case the matchups weren't so terrible -- it was just the public perception of the matchup that suggested unders. I think that in the lower leagues the results are very unpredictable, and when the majority of bettors began to all think alike and drive the price of overs up, it suggests a good place to fade the public's idea of what should happen based on statistics or missings or current form, or whatever. It appears to me that value is created by enough bettors thinking they know what will happen in a league in which form swings wildly from week to week. Really, if you think about it, most of us lose money at this hobby, so if you can find games in which the money is all going in one direction, it should pay over time to bet the other way. In any case, I'm going to use this space to keep track of these where possible...I am not always around to get the closing lines, but I will try.

[allthethings]

Re: Lower-League Totals Public Fade 3/1 L1 Port Vale/Oldham - total Over 2½ (+111) L2 Darlington/Brentford - total Over 2½ (+132) EC Rushden and D/Woking - total Over 2½ (+106)