Rugby Union Super 14 Week 3

[AJ]

Friday 29 February 2008	Home	Draw	Away	bookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged.">BPP
Hurricanes v Chiefs (06:35GMT)	1.67	23.00	2.75	101%	Details »
Hide « Hurricanes v Chiefs
Lions v Force (16:30GMT)	2.60	25.00	1.63	104%	Details »
Hide « Lions v Force
Stormers v Crusaders (18:35GMT)	8.00	38.00	1.15	102%	Details »
Hide « Stormers v Crusaders
Saturday 1 March 2008	Home	Draw	Away	bookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged.">BPP
Highlanders v NSW Waratahs (06:35GMT)	2.86	26.00	1.60	101%	Details »
Hide « Highlanders v NSW Waratahs
Brumbies v Queensland Reds (08:40GMT)	1.83	25.00	2.25	103%	Details »
Hide « Brumbies v Queensland Reds
Cheetahs v Blues (15:00GMT)	8.60	34.00	1.15	102%	Details »
Hide « Cheetahs v Blues
Bulls v Sharks (17:05GMT)	1.90	24.00	2.32	100%	Details »

[-Loki-]

Re: Rugby Union Super 14 Week 3 Love the over in this Hurricanes match. Can't see past a few tries in this match. Crusaders and Blues should be able to cover there spreads respectively. I also like the Sharks to take revenge v the Bulls and Lions to cover the spread and the Reds to just edge the Brumbies who have looked really bad and that should have lossed to the Highlanders.

[AJ]

Re: Rugby Union Super 14 Week 3 Caines in the first match, more thoughts later

[blackcrow]

Re: Rugby Union Super 14 Week 3 On Friday night i like the Hurricanes, Force and Crusaders to cover their respective spreads

[Citizen Kane]

Re: Rugby Union Super 14 Week 3 Canes/Chiefs

If pushed would expect the Canes to win and cover margin but it’s a no bet game for me as both teams are historically inconsistent. Both good teams to back when not expected to do well as well as avoid when expected to win i.e. usually too short when favourites and too long when outsiders, goes with the inconsistently mentioned earlier I suppose. Betting strategy hard when facing each other.

Lions/Force

The SA teams have looked a little off the pace this year and adopting slower than the other teams to the ELV’s. I expect this to be close for a while but see some value in the Lions fading late and will be on the Force to cover the margin.

Stormers/Crusaders

Crusaders deservedly short priced favourites. Can’t see them losing but will throw an ordinary game into the mix at sometime so not prepared to take on the 15.5pt margin.

Highlanders/Waratahs

Two close away loses so far for the home team although it looks like their opponents to date will also struggle this year. Tahs will be targeting at least 4pts out of this match but will get a shakeup from the Highlanders. Not confident either way so another leave.

Brumbies/Reds

Reds beat the Highlanders at home by more than the Brumbies did (6v2) but I thought they were luckier than the Brumbies looking at the respective games. A real new look Brumbies team but I like them at home and strangely will take both the HT and FT margins as opposed to the HTH or HT/FT double as it could stay close and I think it extracts the most value at the odds.

Bulls/Sharks

Two finalists from last year although I can’t see them in the top 4 unless they up their games significantly. Sharks looking the best of the SA sides to date with the Bulls favourites for this game primarily on the back of home advantage IMO. Value is with the Sharks and 2.15 is good enough for me.

Cheetahs/Blues

Two one point home loses for the Cheetahs so far, don’t think they’ll make it three in a row. Blues to take this comfortably but 16.5 is a large margin to cover. HT/FT double is tight at 1.34 but just enough value IMO to take.

R3 bets:

5pts Force -4.5 @ 1.91 (Centrebet)

5pts Brumbies -0.5 HT @ 1.90 (Centrebet)

5pts Brumbies -3.5 @ 2.05 (Centrebet)

5pts Sharks @ 2.15 (NZTab)

5pts Blues HT/FT @ 1.34 (Centrebet)

GLA

Cheers

CK

Super14:

Staked 25 Returned 26.4 Yield 5.4%

[AJ]

Re: Rugby Union Super 14 Week 3 In the other games tonight, I've backed the force every week, no change for me this week. Crusaders look in simply awesome form, nailed on win. Will have a look at the handicap later

[AJ]

Re: Rugby Union Super 14 Week 3 3 from 3 from Friday night, the force being the only tight match. I've been impressed with the Force, getting two away wins early season in south africa, be interesting to see how they do at home

[AJ]

Re: Rugby Union Super 14 Week 3 Warratahs seem clumsy and disjointed for me, weather in NZ is shitty today with high winds. Expect this to be a low scoring bore fest to be honest 2.86 for the home is value for me. Brumbies / Reds, Two teams I expect to struggle. both pretty transitional right now. Brumbies based on home advantage not much else. Bulls / Sharks, excellent write up by CK, I agree and have nothing to add. Away win. Cheetahs / Blues. The blues are my tips for the title, I expect a romp

[AJ]

Re: Rugby Union Super 14 Week 3 Thirteen games in now (missed 4 games last week as was out of town), with even 10 pt stakes, I've staked 130pts, return is 142.55. So I'm running positive with a bank of 112.55 pts and a yield of 9.65%, pretty much in line with the 10% I ran at last season. Best of luck to you all.

[davidmphill]

Re: Rugby Union Super 14 Week 3 Not a bad return for your efforts AJ, hopefully it'll kick on from here and become even more profitable.

[AJ]

Re: Rugby Union Super 14 Week 3 Warratahs sneak home 15-12 after the Highlanders miss two late pens :wall My first loss of the weekend, Lets hope for better luck with the Brumbies

[AJ]

Re: Rugby Union Super 14 Week 3 Other games come good. Finish the week with 6 from 7 correct, 70pts staked, 97.55 returned. A good weeks work, but I'm still pissed off about the 2 late pen misses by the highlanders, they should have taken down the Warratahs, their scrumage was good. They were the longest priced of my teams and they came bloody close, but I wanted the perfect 7 from 7, which I hit twice last season. Updated stats Staked 170pts Returned 195.55pts Yield 15% :ok

[Citizen Kane]

Re: Rugby Union Super 14 Week 3

R3 bets:

5pts Force -4.5 @ 1.91 (Centrebet):eyes 18-16

5pts Brumbies -0.5 HT @ 1.90 (Centrebet) :)

5pts Brumbies -3.5 @ 2.05 (Centrebet) :) 43-11 5pts Sharks @ 2.15 (NZTab) :) 29-15

5pts Blues HT/FT @ 1.34 (Centrebet) :) 50-26

4/5 and a close one this weekend. Good start to the season across the board it looks. :beer CK S14 2008: Staked 50 Returned 62.9 Yield 25.7%