Kempton - 24/02/08

[RussP]

2.05 Kempton<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

A 5f sprint handicap on the turning AW track here at Kempton to start the day. 12 runners will be going behind for this 0-55 Class 6 handicap. Around 4/1 the field here, so an open heat with the front 4 looking quite tightly matched on paper. With plenty of pace in the race here, it may pay to avoid the front runners who will be battling for prominence up front. Lindbergh, current RPF fav, is one of those who like to force the pace. 2 starts ago, ran a big race at 50/1 finishing 3^rd over 7f, but that race was run to suit with the 5 horses (of 14) who raced up with the pace filling the first 5 home, indicating what a muddling heat that was, run at a steady pace. Also had the best of the draw, in box 12 of 14. Lto, won well after being given an uncontested lead and allowed to bowl along in front. Will not get its own way today, has a poor draw in 4 of 12, races off a 4lb higher mark and is one to oppose. Similar comments apply to Sir Loin, another who is 4lb higher today after winning over C&D lto. Has had the run of the race in recent weeks and, although clearly suited by C&D, is another who could struggle to add to its tally today. Is also 7lb worse off with Thoughtsofstardom for a 0.75L beating 2 starts ago (a race won by Earl Compton). Despite that, is better drawn than Lindbergh in stall 7 and I expect it to finish closer than its main market rival today. Both the aforementioned have never won off marks as high as they face today, and with conditions less than likely to be ideal for either, I would gladly oppose both with something at a bigger price, EW. Earl Compton, 5/1 in RPF, has a nice chance today and is a horse that should be suited by conditions todays. Back to the scene of its last win, 2 starts ago, this horse will be suited by the expected breakneck pace. Since moving to handicaps last month, finished 3^rd of 8 at Wolverhampton off 54 (races off 55 today) but was 4L behind where the race went the way of the 2 prominent racers, then won over C&D when the race panned out perfectly for this horse to deliver a late challenge, this time off a mark of 52. Was arguably unlucky lto afer missing the break, but this was a relatively slow run race so it is disappointing that it did not pick up late on, even off its revised 55 mark. What also puts me off is that Tom Queally takes over from regular pilot, Micky Fenton, who clearly gets on well with the horse. Thoughtsofstardom comes here in great form and with a great chance. Likes to be held up and is drawn ok in 6 to gain a good early position. Struggles to get its head in front and has been unlucky in last 3 starts, finishing 3^rd of 8 off 55, 3^rd of 8 off 54 and 2^nd of 8 of 52. In each of those horses, jockey had to take a pull because of the lack of pace. That certainly shouldn’t be an issue today with all the pace on show. Trainer is going well, has a decent claimer on top, bigger field will suit and runs again off a mark of 52 (as lto). A repeat of those efforts with the race more likely to suit will put it bang there, and I’d hope for a return to winning ways. Bentley is a capable type, and reverts to the mark where it had a string of 2^nd’s. Would have a good chance if reproducing that form. Is drawn on the inside which may actual prove an issue to this hold-up type. Stable was flying about a month ago but has gone off the boil without a winner in over 2 weeks despite a hatful of runners and, for that reason, is overlooked. One Way Ticket, another front runner, is dropped 4lb following a very disappointing effort lto and has a lovely draw here. Lto, has a terrible draw so that run is safely overlooked but previously ran a good race finishing 3^rd after leading much of the way. If allowed to dominate, could go very well at an EW price but 95 day absence puts a question mark over its wellbeing. The Carpet Man has shown nothing of interest in lesser races than this, and I cannot see this troubling the judge, despite having the in form Milczarek on board. Fastrac Boy is a difficult horse to fathom as it throws in the odd good run alongside a few stinkers. Reunited with 7lb claimer, Fox, but I’m just not convinced this horse can win in this company. Twinned has an awful draw and is more at home at Wolverhampton, can’t see it getting competitive here. Is probably looking for an ease in mark before returning to the midlands track. Yurchenko and Prime Recreation are the 2 from the foot of the weights, both well drawn and likely to race prominently but not shown anywhere near enough from to be considered. Millenium Sun is eased 6lb but has the coffin draw, off track for 6 months and has no form to speak of.

The EW selection would be Thoughtsofstardom, with One Way Ticket the one for the forecast. Predicted finishing order:-

1 Thoughtsofstardom

2 One Way Ticket

3 Sir Loin

4 Fastrac Boy

[RussP]

Re: Kempton - 24/02/08 4.40 Kempton

Biggest field of the day on the AW, with 13 runners for this 1m4f 0-55 Class 6 handicap. They go 4/1 the field here and it does look a competitive race on paper, with many in with chances. The fact that there is no solid market leader only backs this up. The expected fav is top weight, Sahf London, under George Baker for the in form Moore stable. Races off a mark of 55, 8lb above its highest winning mark and this trip probably stretches its stamina. Poor run lto in amateurs race, and had the run of race the time before with an easy lead up front. Has a poor draw in stall 1, and will struggle to cross over to the lead. Looks a very weak fav despite the stable form and is one to avoid. I just cannot see why Northern Dune is so short in the market. Admittedly, is very lightly raced but has never shown anything of note and has been off the track for quite a while. Could be a handicap blot, but how on earth can you back a horse at around 6/1 based around gossip? Good luck to anyone that does. Medieval Maiden comes here with a bit to prove but has recently switched stables, and drops rapidly in mark to one which it should be capable of winning off. Has won off 57 in the past, and drops 4lb today to 53. Has wide draw to overcome but, over 12f, that is not impossible. Tactics could be crucial to this horse as it can either front run or be held up. If we ignore its last run, then has a definite squeak on its 2 previous efforts. Will have no issues with the trip either and, at around the 8/1 mark, looks a possible for the EW bandits. Oasis Sun is another with a definite chance on the form book, but again has a poor draw in stall 2, and has a disappointing lto effort to overcome. Dropped only 1lb for that effort, where it finished 13L 6^th of 9, when eased in the closing stages. Previous to that, finished a close up 3^rd off todays mark, having been raised 7lb for its previous winning effort. However, was flattered to finish so close as it was a falsely run race and suited those up with the pace. Needs to be eased a few lbs before getting back in the winners enclosure. We have now covered all runners under 10/1 in the market, and I only give Medieval Maiden a true chance of taking this, suggesting that something at a big price may just pinch this. Trysting Grove is next in the market at around 10/1 and is a horse in form finishing 1^st and 2^nd on its last 2 starts. Again, not a brilliant draw in stall 4 so has that burden to overcome. Won well 2 starts ago in Class 7 company and was raised 6lb for its next run, over 9f at Wolverhampton, where it just failed to get up. Another 1lb rise doesn’t look excessive but needs things to drop right and may just find this a little too competitive. However, it could go well at a price. Ocean Rock, drawn better in 10, looks a big price if it does not suffer from the bounce factor today. Came back from a 400+ day absence to finish a pleasing close up 4^th of 6 in a very slowly run race but did not appear to be outpaced when the pace increased, staying on in the final 2f. Off the same mark today and big run expected. Is probably better in banded company but, with question marks over the market leaders, I’d be hopeful of a decent run. From the bottom of weights comes Hiawatha, another having its 2^nd run here after a long absence. Ran well lto, staying on to finish 5^th of 11 but never near the leaders and this looks a step too far. I can’t see this horse finishing anything closer than midfield. Three Thieves is one that needs to put its best foot forward to be considered here, but is dropped a massive 8lb for todays run, is eased in grade, and has the useful Franny Norton on board. This is its time of year, ran very well in Feb/Mar last year, and would be the clear choice on the pick of its form. Whether or not you would take a chance on such a horse is another question. Kingoftheswingers looks overpriced to me. Is very lightly raced and did enough on its 2 starts in 2 days last month to suggest that it should go well, especially off todays 4lb lower mark. Finished 3^rd on its first of those runs, in a Class 6 apprentice handicap, and followed that up with a 2^nd in a seller over an inadequate 7f. Step up in trip will almost certaintly suit and has a perfect draw for one that likes to race prominently just in behind the leaders. Expect it to be challenging at the business end of the race. Cyril The Squirrel looks to have decent form on the book, but those efforts were in small fields where it got an easy lead and the run of the race. In this bigger field with more pace expected, I am happy to overlook its chances. The final 3, Amnesty, Vanishing Dancer and Bulberry Hill, all look to have too much to do and I couldn’t recommend any of them with confidence here.

The EW selection would be Medieval Maiden, with Kingoftheswingers the one for the forecast.

Predicted finishing order:-

1 Medieval Maiden

2 Kingoftheswingers

3 Ocean Rock

4 Trysting Grove

It would be nice to see these come in at big prices of 8/1, 14/1, 14/1 and 10/1.